South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 15/02/14

[Tom Jarvis]

Just heard a long loud rumble of thunder here

[stun12]

Just for anyone interested from earlier about the MetO 3 month forecasts - there were a few, which gradually predicted a drier (oops, edited) winter (thanks to HaroldW on bishop hill for the links)

 

stun:I've located three such forecasts.2013 Oct 25 "The probability that UK precipitation for November-December-January will fall into the driest of our five categories is close to 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is approximately 25%."

2013 Nov 21 "The probability that UK precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is around 15%"

2013 Dec 19 "The probability that UK precipitation for January-February-March will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is between 10 and 15%"

Edited February 21, 2014 by stun12

[Tom Jarvis]

So my first bit of thunder for the year hope it isn't the last:) anyone to my west you never know what the showers may do as wasn't forecast any thunder

Edited February 21, 2014 by Tom Jarvis

[Atlantis]

Like Tom, just had a flash of lightning and loud rumble of thunder! Made me jump as I wasn't expecting it! Dog went made and cats scattered to all four corners of the house! Now raining fairly heavily.

A surprise ending to what has been a fairly decent day here.

[alexisj9]

Just heard a long loud rumble of thunder here

Don't send it this way.

[lassie23]

i'd just like to point out that even james madden has admitted he got it wrong on his own website!! some thing the Daily Fail, failed to mention......

he must do that on a yearly basis then

[Tom Jarvis]

Now keeping an eye on the stuff near Portsmouth

[abruzzi spur]

I think we all know the Daily Express is cannon fodder when it comes to attention grabbing headlines... Let's hope Joe Public will no longer be sucked into the tripe they post about the weather too!

Hi SRMadness. The Daily Express declaring that they said either it would rain a lot or it would snow a lot.I think they have said both, sometimes on the same day and, scarily, at the same time. I can't believe the lack of integrity in their approach and to now try and justify it is just appalling.Anyway, I am feeling quite tired and also wide awake and am looking forward to tomorrow when I expect to be extremely fat and also worryingly thin, but either way I will be outside in the gales/heatwave/freeze/flood/drought and if anyone doubts that one of those events happened I will simply claim that one of the others did. Hence I will always be right or wrong, and if wrong then only in the sense that wrong is just a way of being right that hasn't yet been correctly explained.Quiet and still in Reigate (at least it is outside the house - 11 year old's sleepover still going strong at the top)Have a good weekend all.AS

[lassie23]

More nonsense from the express Floods, storms, and TIDAL WAVES of rats: rodents the latest plague to hit rural towns EXPERTS have warned that waves of rats fleeing the floods are descending on nearby homes.

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=1

 

18z pub run march easterly

 

not sure i can take no more

 

ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

feel better now

[Essexwader]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/weather-summer-2014-to-be-hottest-on-record-9122575.html

Better get a few thermals ordered then!!

[snow raven]

Hi SRMadness. The Daily Express declaring that they said either it would rain a lot or it would snow a lot.I think they have said both, sometimes on the same day and, scarily, at the same time. I can't believe the lack of integrity in their approach and to now try and justify it is just appalling.Anyway, I am feeling quite tired and also wide awake and am looking forward to tomorrow when I expect to be extremely fat and also worryingly thin, but either way I will be outside in the gales/heatwave/freeze/flood/drought and if anyone doubts that one of those events happened I will simply claim that one of the others did. Hence I will always be right or wrong, and if wrong then only in the sense that wrong is just a way of being right that hasn't yet been correctly explained.Quiet and still in Reigate (at least it is outside the house - 11 year old's sleepover still going strong at the top)Have a good weekend all.AS

Hi AS,Not quite sure how to reply to the above... Seems a bit OTT to the daily express??

[abruzzi spur]

Hi AS,Not quite sure how to reply to the above... Seems a bit OTT to the daily express??

Just in a bit of a Grrrrr mood about that terrible rag, SR!Apologies....AS

[john pike]

 

http://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-18233-0-38101900-1381526267.jpg

 

its easy this

 

the met office and the express were both wrong

 

so were a lot of forecasters

 

is sad when people cannot admit they were wrong

 

so as essexwader said

 

sweaters at the ready for summer then

[john pike]

ecm 12z ensembles

 

temps

 

 

some chilly ones there

 

28th is a spread so thats fi

 

wind

 

 

28th on gfs again goes ott

 

rain

 

 

from the 25th there is some rain but not ott

 

28th onwards gfs again goes way ott

 

ecm looks pretty dry

 

the mean is not high either

 

again its a case of who you believe gfs or ecm?

 

i will follow the yellow line ( the mean) for now

 

back later with the 18z ensembles

[Jax]

grrrrr as well. new neighbours and they think a loud party is OK

 

 

we work 24/7 to keep these f*wits online

[Jax]

I do perm earlies so will wake  them up in the week

[Crepuscular Ray]

grrrrr as well. new neighbours and they think a loud party is OK

 

 

we work 24/7 to keep these f*wits online

And how tempting is it to accidentally remove a connection from a socket?

[Jax]

And how tempting is it to accidentally remove a connection from a socket?

Very to take a tards network off line but I am proffesional(apparently)

[abruzzi spur]

Hi SRMadness. The Daily Express declaring that they said either it would rain a lot or it would snow a lot.I think they have said both, sometimes on the same day and, scarily, at the same time. I can't believe the lack of integrity in their approach and FOR THEM to now try and justify it is just appalling.Anyway, I am feeling quite tired and also wide awake and am looking forward to tomorrow when I expect to be extremely fat and also worryingly thin, but either way I will be outside in the gales/heatwave/freeze/flood/drought and if anyone doubts that one of those events happened I will simply claim that one of the others did. Hence I will always be right or wrong, and if wrong then only in the sense that wrong is just a way of being right that hasn't yet been correctly explained.Quiet and still in Reigate (at least it is outside the house - 11 year old's sleepover still going strong at the top)Have a good weekend all.AS

Not in habit of quoting my own posts but just to be clear I was very cross (not for the first time) with the Daily Express and went on a bit of a rant about the wild inconsistencies that they display, really sorry if my rambling has upset anyone.Edit: I've re-read the quote and have added the words in block capitals to the quote that would have made this clear from the start. Oh dear, sorry.AS Edited February 22, 2014 by abruzzi spur

[Jax]

Very to take a tards network off line but I am proffesional(apparently)

damn, I must fix the speel chucker on here.

[Keraunic]

Don't send it this way.

No! send it this way....pleaeeeeaaase.

[Jax]

going to try bed, night all.

[Tamara]

Not in habit of quoting my own posts

AS

I do occasionally - but genuinely for intended constructive and objective reasons only though

[abruzzi spur]

I do occasionally - but genuinely for intended constructive and objective reasons only though

I noticed that Tamara, and you do it so well!

Sunshine still in the offing tomorrow (actually it's today now), 2 whole days in a row, marvellous.

AS