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Cleeve Hill

Winter forecasts - did anyone get close ?

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As we approach the end of February I am interested to know if anyone was close with their forecasts.

Back in October people were suggesting another below average winter but I don't recall reading anything about record rainfall. My gut feel is that temperatures will come out mild but not overly mild but the continual rainfall has been exceptional.

Roger smith talked out a powerful vortex which could sit on the eastern side of Canada for long periods powering the jet across the Atlantic but that is about the only forecast which is now looking good.

Why was the stratosphere so cold this year ?

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Ian Brown, bang on I expect, the closest forecast I would have thought, assuming he did one? if not his thoughts near enough bang on

Edited by IrememberAtlantic252
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I think both Roger and Gibby talked about it being pretty mild, with hardly any cold spells.

Cant remember anyone mentioning a constant feed of low pressure systems and storms though, because it's been the same basic pattern since mid-December, with varying degrees of severity.

Netweather forecast looks a bit out, if i interpreted it correctly a couple of months ago.

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Ian Brown, bang on I expect, the closest forecast I would have thought, assuming he did one? if not his thoughts near enough bang on

 

So you're saying you expect that Ian Brown's forecast was bang on...yet you're not sure if he even made a forecast?

 

I don't think anyone could have predicted properly the extreme winter we've had.

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As we approach the end of February I am interested to know if anyone was close with their forecasts.Back in October people were suggesting another below average winter but I don't recall reading anything about record rainfall. My gut feel is that temperatures will come out mild but not overly mild but the continual rainfall has been exceptional.Roger smith talked out a powerful vortex which could sit on the eastern side of Canada for long periods powering the jet across the Atlantic but that is about the only forecast which is now looking good.Why was the stratosphere so cold this year ?

 

 

My non forecast, last September:http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=530290#post530290didn't predict the storms mind ....

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I would also say Roger J Smith and Gibby have probably been the closest this Winter although I don't think anyone could have predicted just how stormy and wet it was going to be, but that's fair enough as it has been exceptional, much like most couldn't have predicted how cold December 2010 was going to be.  Anyway, hats off to them!

Edited by Don
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Nick, think he did say very mild, snowless January,

He did but he was about 5 years out....."The change to Atlantic based weather will herald quite possibly the most remarkably mild January ever seen. An intense Polar Vortex will be in place over Greenland and the downstream High known as the Bartlett will develop over mainland Europe, becoming anomalously strong at times.The mildest January ever recorded was 7.5C in 1916, and that record will be seriously under threat, with a blowtorch pattern setting up with SWerlies dominant. Some exceptional Spring like weather is likely across SE England in particular,as a blowtorch pattern sets up - it will be very wet and windy in Ireland and Western Scotland. This is the sort of chart that will dominate the month:"Trouble is that was in 2008..... Edited by Weather-history
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Nick, think he did say very mild, snowless January,

 

 

Think he says the dice will land on number 6 everytime, sure enough it will occasionally, rather tiresome 

 

RJS got december bang on and nearly got January with that failed easterly attempt, but no-one anywhere has or could of said we will have the wettest winter for 250yrs, one off freak of a winter

Edited by Nicholas B
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Anyone can have a stab at a winter or any other seasonal forecast. All you have to do is select for each month for the categories of rain /temp whether it will

A - below average

B - average

C - above average

Get those right and your a genius according to some !

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Think the Daily Express forecast came last........againPosted Image

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My expectations for the winter in terms of cold and snow were lowered markedly at the start of December - with long term signals all suggesting at least for the first half of the winter an atlantic dominated picture, however, I had hopes that the second half would turn out drier and colder - alas that evidently has not happened.

 

I certainly didn't foresee such an intensely wet stormy unsettled winter - it has been preety exceptional in this respect with barely a 24 hour settled respite.

 

I guess after 5 relatively quiet winters with only shortlived 4 week spells of the atlantic in full gusto - most notably Jan- Feb 11, late Dec 11 - late Jan 12 and mid Dec 12- mid Jan 13, we were due a stormy wet one, but not on the scale we have seen.

 

Its been akin to extreme seasons of the past of a different guise, example winter 62/63, summer 76 and 95, in terms of how one 'extreme' weather pattern has dominated preety the whole season..

 

Winter 13/14 good riddance..

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My long range forecast for winter 13/14 for the UK bombed. There was though one

part of my forecast that was very accurate and that was persistent ridging in the north

east Pacific with the vortex setting up home between Hudsons Bay and southeast

Canada.I was expecting a more - AO though similar to 1977 which was my undoing.

I don't know how many remember the winter of 77 which was brutal for the midwest

and northeast US but being a -QBO we saw much more in the way of northern blocking

which is why  even though the vortex was in a similar area we had a completely

different winter. Of course there were other factors involved as well such as enso etc.

Anyways back to my forecast for the UK this winter and I will have to award myself a big fat 0.

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the guy who lives on the pennines and types in capital letters his forecast was for a stormy mild wet winter so he was bang on..dont remember his name though?

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I don't read winter forecasts anymore apart from the met office's, who run lot's of calculations through multi-million pound super computers before they have any idea.

 

It's just people guessing what they might think what will happen (sensationalist or not) then trying to back it up with various pieces of data/information. There not worth the web space their written on Posted Image

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Net weather had 

 

However, the forecast headlines are:

  • Average to slightly colder than average temperatures.  (2/10)
  • Drier than average - notably December.  (1/10)
  • Weak high pressure anomaly, especially towards the north of the UK as the jet stream is deflected south. (2/10)
  • Main risk of significant cold later in winter, but this is considered low risk presently.(2/10)
  • Possible cold start to winter.(2/10)


I am afraid long term forecasting remains in its infancy  

 

Its interesting given how quite the Atlantic had been the law of averages (seldom use) we were 'over due' a fired up Atlantic.

 

Those who guessed it right well done

Edited by stewfox
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Gavin Partridge (gavsweathervids.com) was pretty much spot on, suggesting to us about the above normal SST anomalies in the NE Pacific, promoting a blocking high. That has been the cause of our extreme wet winter as it forced the jet to dive Southwards bringing exceptional cold into much of the US. As we know, the such big contrast in upper air temps over the Eastern Seaboard has been the engine to the most powerful jet ever recorded giving us these extreme storms.

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Ian Pennell who opened a thread in the Autumn entitled late Autumn and winter 2013/14

mild stormy short cold snaps later.

His long range forecast made on the 20th of October was virtually spot on and the reasoning

behind it was also excellent, 95/100 I think. One of the most accurate forecasts I have read in

years.

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Ian pennell certainly was the most accurate his forcast not just the most accurate but bang on. Amazing. Honourable mention to roger he is never too far wrong i always feel. Next autumn i will be most certainly interested in their thoughts regarding next winter.

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Problem is some people predict the same each year so obviously will be close eventually.

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I remember Atlantic 252, likely closest '14'15

 

Dec, Mainly mild, especially in the south, temps and rainfall above average, westerlies dominating

 

Jan, Mainly mild, South, temps and rainfall above average, by this stage flooding becoming a real threat for southern areas, strong Jet, further south than normal, snow risk throughout month for Scotland

 

Feb, the mildest CET of winter '14'15, also will be a contender for wettest Feb for 100 years, westerlies dominating, severe flooding for south west

 

Mar, First half Atlantic dominated, stormy for the south, flooding, wet, very windy, 2nd half gradually becoming milder with Spring arriving around 20th, flood risk easing into April

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