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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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UKMO looking particularly disturbed by day 6, GFS makes more of a ridge
 
Posted Image  Posted Image
 
All output going the same way though eventually with a wet unsettled end to winter likely. GEFS mean at day 10
 
Posted Image  Posted Image

That's one powerful vortex to our NW yet again.

Edited by Bobby
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I know it sounds a little bit ghoulish, but I'm sort of wanting the spell to continue to see what happens. It's weather history being made here and we can't change things weather wise, so.

Well if it continues it will be wet and windy, so there you have it. No need to wait to see what might happen.
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ECM - Well, it is about as zonal as one can get!! Not an absolute hope in hell of cold weather. It looks to me as if the full time whistle may as well be blown for this winter now!

Winter? What winter was that - have I missed something? Posted ImagePosted Image

 

ENS say it all

 

Posted Image

 

Mild and wet Posted Image

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The ECM 12z at 240 hours as always shows a teaser with a 1030 mb high pressure over Svalbard until it comes into a reliable time frame not much can be said about it. Then the question of how it stands up the rolling mauls of low pressures coming of the Canadian PV can be answered.

Apologies to all those who's sanity can't hack another go lol

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Good evening. Here is the report of the 12 noon outputs from NWP for today Sunday February 16th 2014 taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models show a slowly filling Low moving in from the West tonight and tomorrow bringing rain across Western and Central areas through the night and lasting for much of tomorrow. The far East will stay dry but become cloudier later. By Tuesday the rain area weakens and decays as it crosses East on Tuesday with a slack Westerly shown with a lot of cloud and just a few showers through most of Tuesday and Wednesday. Later in the week the models do vary with a stronger SW flow looking likely as Low pressure takes control of the UK weather up to the NW.
 
GFS then shows fronts crossing East late in the week with rain followed by showers which then leads on to another unsettled second half to it's operational output tonight with spells of rain and showers with some drier and brighter periods too at times, these chiefly in the SE. Temperatures will be generally close to average but perhaps a little on the mild side in the South at times while conversely the North could see temporarily chilly conditions at times.
 
UKMO shows next weekend shows a window of drier weather on Saturday following the previous days of wind and rain. By Sunday it looks like it would become wet and windy for many again, especially towards the North and West.
 
GEM has the UK bathed in fresh to strong SW winds with rain at times and temperatures perhaps on the mild side in the SE. Late in the run Low pressure crosses the heart of the UK at times with appreciable amounts of rain for many as the winds remain strong and from a Westerly point.
 
NAVGEM has a mild SW flow late in it's run with Low pressure to the NW with relatively mild weather with bands of rain crossing NE in the flow at times.
 
ECM is unsettled as well through next weekend and the start of the new week. However the weekend might not be that bad as a weak ridge dampens down this week's rain to give a dry and brighter spell lasting longest over the SE before all areas gradually become wet and windy again thereafter.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue to indicate a strong trend for Low pressure to be close to NW Britain in 9 and 10 Days time with the resultant mild SW winds and often wet weather well established over the UK.
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles show a fairly average spell of weather with regard to temperatures and it does also look that another rather wet period will be on the cards following the quieter spell of the middle of this week.
 
 
The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow much weaker for the next week or so blowing steadily across the Atlantic in a somewhat undulating pattern before a marked strengthening of the flow is shown through Week 2 again close to Southern Britain.
 
 
In Summary the weather pattern remains an unsettled one. While not the severe pattern we have seen of late there is still plenty of scope for more than enough rain in the areas that don't need it to give rise to further flooding issues and very little scope for any sustained dry and fine weather lasting for any length of time. Temperatures will remain pleasant enough for this time of February with very limited amounts of fog, frost, ice or snow.
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the more i see each suite, the more i worry that we arent really escaping the entrenched pattern. yes, the depressions will track further north this week and we will see a relaxation in precip totals ? week 2 sees the jet continue to be supressed and track right through the BI on its northern side whilst most of the energy heads nw/se just to our sw. with heights dropping over scandinavia as we head into march, i wonder how many secondary depressions might be spawned in what will again be a large trough sitting in our locale. in the first part of week 2, the core of the trough looks to sit to our west with a more sw/ne flow. again, secondary systems may well track across the south of the uk.

 

initially in week 2, all the models want to raise heights to our east which could easily stall the fronts somewhat as they cross us. as the trough migrates east, i've already raised my thoughts in the previous para.

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The medium/longer term outlook looks pretty grim taking the output at face value,with the 

vortex of doom fueling the much talked about jetstream which would likely bring further

high impact weather for the UK.

 

ECM mean for day 10..

 

NAEFS jetstream at 360 hrs..

 

Posted Image

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I can concur with this completely, for I too believe this spell to quite possibly be considered historic. Need only look back on the last four years to see how dramatically our climate has changed. Everything from arctic freezes to sweltering heat waves and droughts, not to mention the last two months of raging zonality. 

Something's definitely stirring alright.

 

Shhh, you will wake up the flat earth brigade making comments like that Posted Image .

 

Seriously zonal 18Z. As flat as a piece of road kill in the fast lane of the M25! 

 

Can't wait for autumn to end, I've had enough now Posted Image . Maybe it will end in November 2014.

 

 

Edit: GEFS out to 288. Opp has 100% support as they are all zonal.

Edited by Jason M
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According to the Gfs 00z, this week will be on the mild side across the south of the uk, it will be less stormy and less wet but there will be outbreaks of rain, heavy at times. Scotland looks a bit cooler than further south and the most unsettled day this week nationwide will be thursday as a more significant low spills in off the atlantic but not a stormy low, just a normal low...as for any sign of winter..nothing from the 00z op run..Posted Image

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The ECMWF 00z op run also shows a less stormy pattern becoming established but it will continue unsettled with outbreaks of rain and breezy / windy at times but much more normal conditions overall, temperatures on the mild side across southern uk this week, in the 10 to 12 celsius range but rather cooler across northern uk. Thursday looks the most unsettled day nationwide and then friday and next weekend look more showery and cooler but then turning milder again by early next week, low pressure will always be close to the uk so apart from brief ridging, outbreaks of rain will feature strongly in the forecast but much less stormy at least.

post-4783-0-23746600-1392624992_thumb.pn

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Good morning folks. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday February 17th 2014 taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models show a weakening area of Low pressure crossing into the Uk from the West in attendance of a band of rain and drizzle through today and tonight. Following on behind is a spell of slack Westerly winds and occasional showers, some of which could be heavy especially tomorrow. By Thursday winds will increase from the West with bands of rain, heavy in places sweeping East and followed by colder and very blustery Westerly winds and squally showers with hail, thunder and sleet and snow all possible over the hills in the North. By Sunday a transient ridge of High pressure is shown to move across from the West with drier weather for a time with less wind and some sunshine to end the weekend.
 
GFS then shows a continuation of Westerly winds, strong at times with spells of rain followed by colder and more showery weather in between. It will often be windy and relatively mild.
 
UKMO shows next Sunday with a ridge of High pressure across the UK giving a dry and brighter period before the next Low looks like trundling across from the west to start next week.
 
GEM has strong SW winds throughout the end of it's run with frequent troughs moving NE in the flow bringing rain and showers across at times in temperatures relatively mild for the time of year.
 
NAVGEM also shows next Sunday's ridge quickly giving way to more cloud and rain as a strong SW flow sets up next week with deep Low pressure to the NW.
 
ECM today also shows Low pressure to the NW with spells of rain and showers running quickly NE across the UK on occasion with temperatures well up to average overall.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean Charts show Low pressure still up to the NW with SW winds for all and fronts delivering rain at times in generally mild conditions.
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles show sustained and unsettled weather under Atlantic domination of Westerly or SW winds. All areas are shown to receive rain at times with strong winds at times too and temeratures largely close to average.
 
 
The Jet Stream shows an undulating pattern throughout with the axis involving the UK in it's movements with a strengthening of the flow again looking likely next week.
 
 
In Summary the pattern remains unchanged with further spells of rain and strong winds affecting all areas at times throughout the next few weeks. While the severe weather of late looks unlikely the additional rain will hamper and possibly worsen the flooding conditions still affecting some areas through the period. It should remain relatively mild over the UK throughout.
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Some posts have been removed-off topic.

Please keep any views on climate change and historic weather to the relevant threads -model discussion only in here please folks.

 

Thankyou.

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Main thing that strikes me this morning is the fact that the PV seem's to be getting more and more reorganised over Greenland, If it carries on we could end up with yet another repeat of the endless storms crossing the UK> . There really looks like no end in sight, even the pressure rise ideas are now dead in the water. I think we will end up with a UK wide sink hole problem if models carry predicting what they are , ground water levels can't take much more..

 

Posted Image

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this from my 2x daily review of the 3 main anomaly charts

noaanoaa

6-10 continues similar unsettled idea, with 8-14 also along similar lines, heights on both over s uk are not as low as a week or 10 days ago, although not by much, so deep lows may well feature in this period, and crucially perhaps south of the more usual Newfoundland-s of Iceland-n of Scotland route.

and

Mon 17feb

Ec-gfs

Even more trough governed than last issues on both of them; flow a bit more s of west on ec than gfs, gfs more ‘straight over atlantic than ec, both show trough diffluent just w of uk. It could be another spell of very disturbed weather?

Edited by johnholmes
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this from my 2x daily review of the 3 main anomaly charts

noaanoaa

6-10 continues similar unsettled idea, with 8-14 also along similar lines, heights on both over s uk are not as low as a week or 10 days ago, although not by much, so deep lows may well feature in this period, and crucially perhaps south of the more usual Newfoundland-s of Iceland-n of Scotland route.

and

Mon 17feb

Ec-gfs

Even more trough governed than last issues on both of them; flow a bit more s of west on ec than gfs, gfs more ‘straight over atlantic than ec, both show trough diffluent just w of uk. It could be another spell of very disturbed weather?

I noticed the 500 mb anomaly charts have never given any backing to any proper wintry spells during the last 3 months so they have been by far the best guide, along with mogreps. The 500 mb anomaly charts have generally shown a broadly westerly upper flow for the last 3 months..spot on.Posted Image

Edited by Frosty.
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Main thing that strikes me this morning is the fact that the PV seem's to be getting more and more reorganised over Greenland, If it carries on we could end up with yet another repeat of the endless storms crossing the UK> . There really looks like no end in sight, even the pressure rise ideas are now dead in the water. I think we will end up with a UK wide sink hole problem if models carry predicting what they are , ground water levels can't take much more..

 

Posted Image

Agreed all models show the Canadian PV roll back into place,combine that with warm North Atlanic SST, west based QBO allows the pattern to continue with low pressures and heavy rainfall. Similar pattern so far this winter to last but with rainfall further south.

GFS @ 10 hPa signal a possible wave for beginning of March. If it occurrs and if it is large enough to propagate to lower Trop. Then ten days into March for next possible break in pattern which is a long wait.

At present no high pressure has any chance to get a foothold in NW Europe in any direction.

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Is the Ecmwf 00z T+240 chart a glimmer / flicker of hope for coldies or yet more nonsense..it's a day 10 cliffhanger..I would have liked to see day 11.Posted Image

 

As for the summary for the week ahead:-

 

Not as windy, Not as wet...Mild

post-4783-0-94645000-1392632900_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
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Morning all :)

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021706/gfs-0-84.png?6

 

It seems any respite from the rain and wind is going to be brief indeed - another nasty little storm for Thursday night/Friday morning and we wouldn't want to see any correction south.

 

So how do we break from this pattern ? One possibility looks to be (as in deepest FI), the jet re-aligning north allowing pressure rises to the south. This was mooted for this week some time back but dropped so it remains to be seen.

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Weather presenters on bbc saying that this week won't be as wet and nowhere near as stormy.  Too early a call?  I think so, 06GFS showing IMO what may be heading our way and I think that the feature back end of the week [yep same period I've been on about] could be a lot more lively than they suggest. We are from out of the woods yet. 

 

BFTP  

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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I think they have been trying to put a more positive spin on this week TBH for the sake of those flooded out, it should at least be somewhat drier if still a wetter than average week. Next week could be very wet once more for the west with conveyor type south-westerlies as charts like this have strongly suggested over recent days outputs - more misery to come:

post-2595-0-23823900-1392637292_thumb.pn

 

 

Edited by TonyH
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Is the Ecmwf 00z T+240 chart a glimmer / flicker of hope for coldies or yet more nonsense..it's a day 10 cliffhanger..I would have liked to see day 11.Posted Image

 

As for the summary for the week ahead:-

 

Not as windy, Not as wet...Mild

I may be wrong Karl but judging by many of the experienced posters on here and in particular the post submitted by John Holmes at 09:49, and I quote..

 

 

 this from my 2x daily review of the 3 main anomaly charts

noaanoaa

6-10 continues similar unsettled idea, with 8-14 also along similar lines, heights on both over s uk are not as low as a week or 10 days ago, although not by much, so deep lows may well feature in this period, and crucially perhaps south of the more usual Newfoundland-s of Iceland-n of Scotland route.

and

Mon 17feb

Ec-gfs

Even more trough governed than last issues on both of them; flow a bit more s of west on ec than gfsgfs more ‘straight over atlantic than ec, both show trough diffluent just w of uk. It could be another spell of very disturbed weather?

 

I really can't see day 11 producing anything other than a renewed push of southwesterly winds in advance of the next low which seems  poised to strike soon after.

post-17830-0-93778200-1392637032_thumb.j

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