Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[Summer Sun]

Little change from GFS with temperatures rising from Saturday

 

 

British summer time begins with temperatures widely in the teens and quite possibly 20c in some spots

 

 

 

 

Things then turn a lot colder for the north with temperatures struggling to get above 4c in some places still warm in the south

 

 

By Wednesday temperatures still make it to the mid teens in the south and recover slightly in the north of England

 

 

8 day 2m temperature anomaly shows above average temperatures for just about all of England and Wales

 

[knocker]

Only had a quick glance at 12 run but I see after the low to the west of 984 at the beginning of next week finishes nudging in bringing rain to the south west on Tuesday by Thursday we end up with complex two centre system in France and Germany bringing strong easterlies and rain to southern half of England. Just an observation and in no shape or form an analysis of what's going on.

[Summer Sun]

Just got round to checking ECM and its either stuck at t24 or is updating rather late

 

EDIT

 

Definitely stuck at t24

Edited March 26, 2014 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

Yup definately stuck. Had a quick look at GEMS and it's quite similar to the GFS for the period I mentioned above except on the Thursday it has moved the main low down over Italy.

[stodge]

Evening all

 

Plenty of northern blocking on the models thus far. GEM keeps the easterly until a cell breaks from the Iceland/Greenland HP and slides SE into the Baltic turning a chill E'ly into a warm SE'ly.

 

GFS Operational tries to re-assert the Atlantic into FI but fails as does Control which ends with a T+384 not far removed from T+6.

 

I suppose the obvious manifestation is the re-location of the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere from Greenland/Canada to Northern Scandinavia/Russia.

[Summer Sun]

ECM is moving by the looks of it out to t48 now

[draztik]

Weatherbell notes this on their website '3:00 PM EDT: ECMWF 12z products delayed -- catastrophic failure at their end'

 

on meteociel, it seems to be sporadic... but so far, trending colder than 0z out to 168.

 

Edited March 26, 2014 by draztik

[damianslaw]

Polar vortex looks like it is finally on a breakdown, which in turn should help aid a pattern change over the Pole, probably towards higher heights developing to the NW, a number of models are showing such a set up as we move through April.

 

The Jetstream is also forecast to take a very southerly path which in turn will prevent any sustained warmer continental feed and a return to westerlies with low heights over Spain/Italy.

 

UKMO is keen on killing off the SE feed abruptly early next week. GFS is locking the north into a cooler northerly feed next week but the south hanging on to a milder continental feed.

 

Not viewed ECM.

 

The models are unlikely to latch onto the pattern change just yet - but the lack of a westerly feed in the medium term speaks volumes..

[Polar Maritime]

The flip/flopping continues, but the theme is still there for a cool/cold start to April after the short lived milder shot.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

At day 7, the ECM is sinking those heights a little, so probably week 2 would return a warmer south easterly flow, this is backed by the GEM and GFS ens (GFS op does something but it's end game is skewed by low resolution)

There is no output tonight which shows a retrogression followed by robust Greenland heights. All of them want to allow the winds to back to a cooler easterly before veering them back to a warmer flow. Given the recent metoffice updates, I think the pattern could be locked in for a while with heights north/north east of the UK and low heights to the south west giving average conditions for the south west with rain at times, other areas will be drier than normal. The west/north west will do well out of this along with the south east at times if the sea track short. I'm afraid the north east of the UK could be pretty short changed here with frequent spells of low cloud and drizzle.

[stodge]

At day 7, the ECM is sinking those heights a little, so probably week 2 would return a warmer south easterly flow, this is backed by the GEM and GFS ens (GFS op does something but it's end game is skewed by low resolution)

There is no output tonight which shows a retrogression followed by robust Greenland heights. All of them want to allow the winds to back to a cooler easterly before veering them back to a warmer flow. Given the recent metoffice updates, I think the pattern could be locked in for a while with heights north/north east of the UK and low heights to the south west giving average conditions for the south west with rain at times, other areas will be drier than normal. The west/north west will do well out of this along with the south east at times if the sea track short. I'm afraid the north east of the UK could be pretty short changed here with frequent spells of low cloud and drizzle.

Indeed, what we're seeing is the HP moving SE from Greenland/Iceland to Denmark which would explain the wind direction.

 

The southerly jet stops a full-blown Atlantic incursion and we finish up in a kind of nowhere-land with LP dominant over or just to the south of the British Isles.

[Summer Sun]

ECM Op is hit and miss tonight but the ensemble has updated fine the south should hang onto the milder / warmer air through-out from Saturday, with low pressure close to the south west this is where we could see the bulk of the rain though hopefully it won't be too heavy parts of the east coast could be plagued by cloud at times but these finer details will be ironed out nearer the time

 

[Cloud 10]

The 18z has chucked out a cold one (eventually) tonight,and looks reminiscent of 

this time last year.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Just to fill in the gaps from earlier, the ECM op for week 2 shows a Scandi high

 

Unsettled for the South, 850s slightly above average though the wind direction may temper temperatures, especially in the east. Pretty much ties in with the metoffice and not far off in my view from what we will see.

 

ECM ens shows a weak upper ridges over or just to the east of the UK with lower heights in the Atlantic

 

This would not support anything particularly cold going forward. GFS ens the same, temperatures fluctuating close to average with winds between the south and east.

[knocker]

Top of the morning. A brief look at next week from the GFS and ECMWF. Firstly the former.

 

Monday has a low to the south west and high pressure to the north with a fairly slack SE wind over most of the UK giving temps in places around 18C which will be the highest of the week. This includes Sunday. After that around average.

 

The low then progressively moves ESE during week ending up over Italy by Friday with another low in the SW approaches  This causes the wind flowing over the UK to back and strengthen to fairly fresh easterlies, bit of a squeeze with HP to NE, accompanied by a fall in temp to around 14C (very regional of course). Northern Scotland being the exception which is under the influence of the high cell.

 

Not a great deal of precipitation in all this, maybe some rain in the south on Wednesday.

 

ECMWF not fully in yet so a quick look at GEMS. Vastly different to the GFS as it doesn’t move the low pressure SE but keeps it to the south west of the UK moving NE and bring a more southerly/SW component to the wind and more precipitation.

 

The ECMWF broadly speaking  has the low pressure to south west all week, around the Bay of Biscay, bur deepening quite a lot to 964mb by Thursday and influencing the south west of the UK whilst the rest remains under the influence of the high pressure to the north east. Thus a SE/ NE a split between airstreams

 

Not much certain about that lot and all rather depends on the movement of the low pressure to the SW and the strength of the high to the NE. Time for the beach and the seaweed.

Edited March 27, 2014 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z op run shows much warmer weather spreading from the south from sunday onwards, temperatures in the south / se could reach 70 F on sunday and perhaps a notch or two higher next week. We will swap the cold winds off the north sea for a southern europe continental flow with winds backing SE'ly with plenty of fine and sunny weather but with outbreaks of rain, possibly thundery at times, most of the rain further southwest but the ecm shows a gradual descent into more generally unsettled weather across the uk as low pressure gains the upper hand.

[Summer Sun]

Little change from GFS with things warming up on Saturday

 

 

 

By Tuesday the warmth becomes more restricted to the south

 

 

Wednesday and Thursday see's highs in the south around the mid teens but cooler further north

 

 

8 day 2m temperature anomaly is above average

 

 

850's likely to be well above normal for a time before falling closer to average but never dropping below average

 

 

Another rise in pressure possible from April 7th away from Scotland

 

Edited March 27, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run also shows a significant warm up, at least for the southern third of the uk with temperatures approaching 20 celsius but progressively closer to average further north, however, unlike the ecm, the gfs shows colder weather with a risk of frost by the middle of next week onwards with the easterly winds returning for a time. Later in FI there is a blast of polar maritime air with wintry showers and sub 528 dam thicknesses.

[Cloud 10]

Looking increasingly unlikely to see a cold attack from the east/north-east in the 7-10

day range now with good ensemble agreement for the cold pool to remain out of reach

to the east.

 

Day 7 ensemble means from ECM,GFS and GEM..

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032700/EDH0-168.GIF

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-0-168.png?0

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/gem/run/gensnh-21-0-168.png

 

 

 

[legritter]

Good morning all posters ,well looking at charts it looks like the weather is going to become a QUick change Artist ,atleast not boring and some of us this weekend can dust off the barbys cut the grass and enjoy a few stella on the patio .then what ,well plenty of possibilitys including a wet breakdown from the s west possible ,Vast flocks of sea gulls overhead ,so some of the White stuff possible ,its been a long frustrating winter lets forget this one ,Crack open the STellas and enjoy ,Perhaps the summer from hell is on its way .cheers gang .

[Milhouse]

The arrival of the milder air is set to happen overnight Friday with 850s in the range -1 to 1c on Friday afternoon being replaced by 3-5c for Saturday and Sunday. Then edging higher in the south east on Monday but not bringing much higher temperatures due to the wind veering more easterly off the north sea. Still pleasant warmth to come for a good part of the UK. NE coasts the exception. Another nice day to come on Sunday. Had a few pleasant Sundays recently.

 

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z 8 day 2m temperature anomaly remains above average UK wide

 

Edited March 27, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

Differences between then UKMO and GFS at 144h. GFS brings back a colder easterly later next week with the mild temperatures becoming restricted to the east coast. UKMO has winds coming more from a southerly direction so it would be milder further north. What every model you look at though, Eastern Scotland isnt the place to be in the next 7-10 days unless cold and drizzle is your thing.

[Summer Sun]

The first signs of a change to the temperatures begins in the south east tomorrow with highs in the low teens for some

 

 

For the weekend temperatures rise widely with 20c possible as we enter British summer time on Sunday

 

 

By Monday the north of England becomes cooler but it remains warm in the south

 

 

Quite a drop from the 06z run the reason for this is we have rain over the NE on the 12z which is suppressing temps on this run

 

 

By Tuesday temperatures recover in northern England whilst it remains warm in the south

 

 

By Wednesday the warmest temperatures become restricted to the far south though most parts of England and Wales should make it into double figures

 

 

Next week won't be completely dry nor will it be a week of wall to wall sunshine but where the sun does get out it will certainly feel pleasant however eastern Scotland doesn't look the place to be with low temperatures and rain / drizzle at times making it feel anything but warm

 

Taking all of the above 2m temperatures for the next 8 days remain above average UK wide

 

 

UKMO at t144 give more of a south to south easterly feed helping the warmer temperatures to move further north

 

 

Whilst GFS goes for a cooler easterly wind

 

Edited March 27, 2014 by Summer Sun

[waverider uk]

The arrival of the milder air is set to happen overnight Friday with 850s in the range -1 to 1c on Friday afternoon being replaced by 3-5c for Saturday and Sunday. Then edging higher in the south east on Monday but not bringing much higher temperatures due to the wind veering more easterly off the north sea. Still pleasant warmth to come for a good part of the UK. NE coasts the exception. Another nice day to come on Sunday. Had a few pleasant Sundays recently.

 

Even with the wind from the East temps not as bad as they could be here on the coast with SST in the North Sea a good 3-4c higher than normal for this time of year.