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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    A very disturbed Wintry look to the GFS this morning, with a much colder Polar Maritime pattern now setting up until at least the end of the month, with wintry showers rattling in from the N/W, especially across the Midlands North where it will feel bitter in the wind, time to get the thermals out !

     

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    Also in line with the ECMWF

     

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    FI the cold and unsettled theme continues with the Jet way South of the UK.

     

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    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Hat's off to the TRUE weather enthusiasts on here who post all year and not just when there is cold potential.Posted Image

     

    The Ecm 00z op run shows increasingly unsettled and colder weather towards the end of the week ahead with low pressure to the north west of the BI taking over. The next few days look cloudier and breezier compared to recently but then high pressure briefly brings another window of fine and pleasant weather to the south eastern half of the uk before the dam finally bursts by friday, speaking of dam..the thickness charts show 528 dam covering the uk by the end of the week and into next week..might need to dig the woolies out for the first time since..Errrr ..last March..Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Amazing if you have had a very mild winter,that you could almost put money on the weather turning much colder as spring arrives.SNOW in places too looking probable as well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
    Posted · Hidden by Polar Maritime, March 16, 2014 - off topic..
    Hidden by Polar Maritime, March 16, 2014 - off topic..

    Yes Frosty, lets hope its as good as last year when this place was pretty busy throughout the Summer months for a change, in years gone by we would be lucky to get 1 post per day after the Winter madness lot went into hibernation! 

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

     

    morning all looks  like after march 20 th we can put the sun cream away!!  the Atlantic  is waking up its looking very wet deep in to fantasy world after the 20 th at the  moment!!1

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    This Wind Chill chart shows just how cold it could feel by next weekend Posted Image

     

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    Hmm the GFS really need to fix their model as those predictions looks way over the top considering the predicted air temperatures

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    6-9C here

     

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    Surface pattern shows it being pretty windy, but not enough to create very low wind chill temperatures.

     

    Very disappointing runs in my eyes which seems to buck the trend on here this morning. Unsettled and wet with temperatures slightly below average looks to be agreed on to some degree, of course at this time of year this means temperatures across the UK falling shy of double figures rather than anything particularly cold.

     

    A clean northerly with snow showers I would like, a big area of high pressure over or just to the south east of the UK I would like. But not a return to the conditions we suffered throughout winter. I am really enjoying seeing the spring flowers and the blossom on the trees which was almost non existent at this time last year. 

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Hmm the GFS really need to fix their model as those predictions looks way over the top considering the predicted air temperatures

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    6-9C here

     

     

    Surface pattern shows it being pretty windy, but not enough to create very low wind chill temperatures.

     

     

     

    These are the MAX surface temps for the same time period as the Wind Chill chart i posted.

     

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    Your chart posted is for mid-day..12noon. no wonder you thought the model needed fixing..Posted Image Even then it will feel bitter with frosts catching the early Spring growth if left unattended. 

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Looks like a weak ridge of high pressure should build on Wednesday

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

    Good agreement from the models on this now, then we see return to unsettled conditions in the following days

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    These are the MAX surface temps for the same time period as the Wind Chill chart i posted.

     

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    Your chart posted is for mid-day..12noon. no wonder you thought the model needed fixing..Posted Image Even then it will feel bitter with frosts catching the early Spring growth if left unattended. 

     

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    My bad Posted Image

    Still I must say that from the models, the only white thing I will see in the morning will probably be going in my breakfast cup of tea Posted Image

    Maybe an Atlantic ridge will rise from the depths in future output to bring cold air down from the north, otherwise it just looks rather wet with low pressure residing close to the UK after a rather cloudy and average first half of the week.

     

    Edit - Nice unrealistic low resolution run from the GFS there. How it pulls a blocking high to our north east from T192 I have no idea 

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    My bad Posted Image

    Still I must say that from the models, the only white thing I will see in the morning will probably be going in my breakfast cup of tea Posted Image

    Maybe an Atlantic ridge will rise from the depths in future output to bring cold air down from the north, otherwise it just looks rather wet with low pressure residing close to the UK after a rather cloudy and average first half of the week.

     

    Edit - Nice unrealistic low resolution run from the GFS there. How it pulls a blocking high to our north east from T192 I have no idea 

     

    Yes, don't expect snow in the morning Capt, as the models have never shown such thing. The end of next week looks much more promising if it's Snow your after, especially from the Midlands North over high ground.

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    The GFS does have the propensity to forecast quite extreme scenarios when it comes to modeling the weather , usually either too warm or too cold. You can see this when looking at the ensembles, the operational is usually either side of the average. I expect this time also the GFS will move away from its frosts and polar incursions to something nearer average as it tends to do so often. I would therefore agree with the above that it will be just below average, which for maximum temperature is just below double figures. Frosts will occur I'm sure but only localised.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Amazing if you have had a very mild winter,that you could almost put money on the weather turning much colder as spring arrives.SNOW in places too looking probable as well.

     

    All pretty normal to be fair, but I do expect to see some sort of extreme period of weather return before 2014 closes, so plenty of time yet. The warmth will return unlike last March where it got extended into May and caused turmoil in our countryside, even if it was fascinating from a weather enthusiast's viewpoint.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Hat's off to the TRUE weather enthusiasts on here who post all year and not just when there is cold potential.Posted Image

     

     

    I hope you're counting yourself in that bracket too as without your posts, folk wouldn't even know what was being forecast. Stick with it and continue to tell it how it is and you'll be noticed as someone to trust, well at least that's how I think it goes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    Ext ecm ensembles show the UK to be under the influence of unsettled conditions from around mid week, thru to end of month. It will also feel much cooler, as the temp anomaly shows a negative anomaly for our shores into the mid term. The ecm continues to show a deep cold air mass moving out of the states/canada, quite vigorous in fact at around day 8/9!

    Posted Image

    temp anomaly t204

    the ens reluctant to build pressure for the uk after mid week, with the longer term outlook looking cool & wet

    Posted Image

    day 15 msl mean

    Edited by draztik
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Looking at the GFS ensembles we could see another pressure rise w/c 24th

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Ext ecm ensembles show the UK to be under the influence of unsettled conditions from around mid week, thru to end of month. It will also feel much cooler, as the temp anomaly shows a negative anomaly for our shores into the mid term. The ecm continues to show a deep cold air mass moving out of the states/canada, quite vigorous in fact at around day 8/9!

    Posted Image

    temp anomaly t204

    the ens reluctant to build pressure for the uk after mid week, with the longer term outlook looking cool & wet

    Posted Image

    day 15 msl mean

     

    The interpretation around your post is so different to that from Summer Sun, but in reality the only real difference is that the South of England continues to be modelled nearer the influence of the High Pressure to our South, so it will be largely dry here with no threatening levels of rainfall expected. The rest of the guidance from the ECM seems spot on with the North and west at risk of colder Temperatures and maybe some wintriness over higher ground, nearer average and generally drier towards the SE.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Looking at the GFS ensembles we could see another pressure rise w/c 24th

     

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    See my comment above, yes we are speaking "chalk and cheese" I guess with both the ECM and GFS pointing to quiet different evolutions, but I still favour the UKMO's long-range idea that it will remain drier with higher pressure towards the SE corner of the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    A week in which unsettled weather slowly moves south. Mild until Friday however the interesting day is Thursday. Could be very windy and wet. GFS showing a cool period from Friday onwards will be interesting too see if this follows the early winter trends and temperatures shown rise as we get within 48 hours. A bit of divergence between the GFS and UKMO at T120 though so worth keeping an eye on things.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    A little hope for those who want snow

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    What also interests me from all the output is the easing of the westerly conditions after next weekend, perhaps suggesting that the unsettled spell might not last too long. Also it seems that energy is yet again reluctant to clear from the Greenland region than the models originally suggested.

     

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    High pressure gets back in again

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    The polar airmass might give some snow showers in places for a time.

     

    Days 9 and 10 look settled across most of the UK. 

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Potential for some snow towards next weekend in places especially on higher ground in the north

     

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    Then its a return to high pressure and eventually something warmer

     

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    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Ukmo has some impressively low thicknesses for the time of year next weekend

    Seems the cold will get in for a couple of days at least. How cold? I guess the question for most will be 'cold enough for snow ' ?

    The answer is tough to call in late march but I suspect not cold enough away from Scotland or high ground n England.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    The Azore High is omnipresent once again in the mid range of the GFS now and the latter stages of the ECM. It will be the next few days of outputs that will be key if there is to be anything wintry looking in the forecasts for the rest of March. I am sure there will be some chill to the air by next Thursday and for a couple of days thereafter but I won't go overboard with anything to do with the "S" word at this stage. In fact, it is next weekend onwards which holds my interest and the aforementioned AH is still showing its liking to at least associate itself with parts of the South. This is good news IMHO, given the state of the saturated ground down this way. Where we go from here is the pertinent question, my gut feeling is that the outputs will now firm up on my previous idea of something very special developing, which I have mentioned many a time in recent days, so we clearly need to watch this space!

     

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/?p=2945109

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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