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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Cloud, i was querying why some were of the opinion that the upper strat pattern would be mirrored in the trop.

 

If only it were that simple.Posted Image 

 

 

Meanwhile the 18z  showing an interesting start to spring.

 

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Dead on here, but if the GFS is showing a half hearted attempt at blocking then there is hope, i have lost complete faith in the ECM, now it's not showing any HLB blocking it will typically be right probably

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More & More ensembles heading towards the SE Greenland HP rise....

 

I will take this run please.... -

 

Could the GFS put the icing on the winter cake by owning the Euros. It would really ironically top this volatile winter off.

 

But....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=126&code=20&mode=0&carte=1

 

S

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LOL the GFS does not want to give it up- It will get full credit if it does pull of a coup.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021418/gfsnh-0-144.png?18

 

S

 

 

Hehe - the models are never without a tease - even the guffs. Makes it all worthwhile watching whether we win or we lose. Fascinating 18z @ 120 does the slider pull it off? It's still possible. Just after this timeframe: - Secondary low off the motherlode upstream hits the usual Azores encroachment and things go pear-shaped. But what if???

 

Posted Image

Edited by kumquat
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GFS been acting a bit odd lately, as posted earlier there seem to be data issues. NAEFS and GEM ensembles at day 10 similar unsettled theme as ECM

 

NAEFS mean Posted Image  GEM Posted Image

 

Best stick to these instead of getting sucked into the GFS weirdness!

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The latest fax's show that surface high near Iceland at T96/120hrs with some quite cold air into the north early next week.

 

post-2026-0-06387200-1392421230_thumb.gipost-2026-0-44014900-1392421244_thumb.gipost-2026-0-48608200-1392421284_thumb.gi

 

A temporary break from the wind and rain for 24-48hrs for many.

It looks like more snow for parts of Scotland especially the highlands and more rain geherally as the Atlantic pushes another low towards the UK.by day 6.

 

 

 

 

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Some respite would be welcomed!

Yes for sure.

Not looking like any real change though,just an easing of the Westerlies for a short while by the looks of the forecasted height anomalies.

Day 10 on both NAEF,s amd ECM still looking unsettled

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021412/EDH101-240.GIF?14-0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-240.png?12

 

the mean jet and the track of lows on much the same path across the Atlantic with those low heights anomalies again modeled to our nw.

It seems any breaks in the bad weather are going to be transient with no real sign of a blocking high developing anywhere close to the UK to break this relentless pattern.

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Yes for sure.

Not looking like any real change though,just an easing of the Westerlies for a short while by the looks of the forecasted height anomalies.

Day 10 on both NAEF,s amd ECM still looking unsettled

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021412/EDH101-240.GIF?14-0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-240.png?12

 

the mean jet and the track of lows on much the same path across the Atlantic with those low heights anomalies again modeled to our nw.

It seems any breaks in the bad weather are going to be transient with no real sign of a blocking high developing anywhere close to the UK to break this relentless pattern.

 

True - and we don't need deep lows and storm force winds crossing us to see continued problems. The means suggesting an unsettled SWly flow which could still bring significant rain and we don't need huge amounts with the current situation to see more flood problems. We need a sustained dry anticyclonic spell really and little sign of that so still a problematic outlook perhaps.

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Well i'm looking forward to spring now, strengthening sun and all...and we may even get some cold weather for the first time since..errr.last spring...The Ecm 00z is the final nail in the coffin of this abysmal winter with the unsettled weather persisting with occasional vigorous lows but not as potent as we have seen, some brief ridging with longer drier and brighter spells separating us from the next low. It looks like a significant pressure rise for southern and western europe which could eventually influence the uk weather with a nw / se split, the most unsettled weather ending up where it would normally be, the northwest of the uk, the south & east becoming milder and less unsettled as time goes on, three runs in a row now from the ecm with the jet eventually becoming sw / ne aligned.

post-4783-0-58588600-1392449046_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-51356100-1392449065_thumb.pn

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It's hard to believe that a centre of high pressure last sat over some part of the British Isles was the start of December about 10 weeks ago. This winter must be up there with being one of the most cyclonic winters even seasons on record and there is no sign of high pressure having total control over our weather right to the end of the meteorological winter.

Last occasion I can recall such a prolonged cyclonic spell is autumn 2000.

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After a brief slightly drier period it's back to unsettled and probably mostly mild conditions

 

Posted Image

 

ECM looking corkingly mild at the end! Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

No sign whatsoever of any proper cold, as usual, throughout this whole winter extended autumn. Posted Image

Edited by Purga
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Over half way through February 14 and most people are going to experiance a 100% snow free Winter.

Weak ridges of high pressure crossing the UK at times, but the outlook until the end of February continues to favour unsettled conditions. More wind and rain unfortunately for most looking at this mornings output to my very untrained eye !!

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ECM looking corkingly mild at the end! Posted Image

 

I don't know why you are hyping this up. It is certainly mild but nothing out of the ordinary to be honest but more importantly it is not dry. And this is the most important factor here. We need a decent anticylonic spell and there isn't any.
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I don't know why you are hyping this up. It is certainly mild but nothing out of the ordinary to be honest but more importantly it is not dry. And this is the most important factor here. We need a decent anticylonic spell and there isn't any.

More importantly is that its 10 days away..!! 

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Good evening. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKM, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday February 15th 2014.
 
All models show the powerful storm of the last 24 hours now positioned near Eastern Scotland and through the weekend it will move away North and fill with winds and rain lessening to modest levels through the weekend to end up seeing most of the UK dry tomorrow. By Monday a much weaker Low weakens further but not quick enough to prevent a spell of rain moving across the UK from the west on Monday, heavy in places. Then as this moves away East Tuesday and Wednesday will be quiet enough days with sunshine and a lot of dry weather if rather chilly conditions before new troughs from Low pressure to the NW bring increasing winds and rain in from the West by the end of the day.
 
GFS then shows the end of next week with changeable conditions prevailing with rain at times as troughs in association with Low pressure to the North and NW cross East in the flow, a pattern that persists for the remainder of the output this morning in temperatures close to average and possibly a little above for a time towards the SE.
 
UKMO shows next Friday as a windy day with Low pressure close to Northern Scotland with strong Westerly flow with showers or spells of rain at times in temperatures close to average.
 
GEM shows a trough crossing East later next week with a showery and chilly NW flow following for a time giving way to a strong and milder SW flow with rain at times, heaviest in the North and West.
 
NAVGEM also shows an active cold front crossing East next weekend with a chilly and showery NW flow following with wintry showers, especially in the North.
 
ECM today shows Low pressure to the North as Scotland similar to UKMO with a strong West flow bringing rain or showers at times to end next week. Thereafter Low pressure becomes a dominant feature across the North Atlantic with a strong SW flow with rain at times, heaviest towards the North and West.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Charts this morning continue the pattern broadly resembling the operational so an Atlantic based Low pressure area is likely to be bathing the area in SW winds with rain at times, heaviest and windiest towards the NW while temperatures probably become a little milder later.
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles today indicate a mobile Atlantic pattern persisting through the two weeks with rain at times for all areas in blustery WSW winds. Temperatures will for the most part never be far from average though it could become rather mild for a time in the SE early in the second half of the run.
 
The Jet Stream still shows signs of weakening markedly in the next week with the resultant quieter period of weather affecting the UK. In week 2 it shows signs of strengthening again though not to the extent of recently.
 
 
In Summary the weather still shows signs of becoming much less severe as we move through next week. All areas will see rain at times but some good dry periods in between and temperatures shouldn't create any problems either apart from occasional touches of frost here and there. Prolonged dry weather however looks unlikely with low pressure in control up to the NW firing troughs East or NE across the UK at times. Conditions for flooded areas will ease very slowly but the additional rain next week will slow any major improvements for some time yet.
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I don't know why you are hyping this up. It is certainly mild but nothing out of the ordinary to be honest but more importantly it is not dry. And this is the most important factor here. We need a decent anticylonic spell and there isn't any.

mmm...hyping it up or simply commenting on what one of the models is showing at a point in time..? is he doing what we're supposed to be doing on this forum?

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I don't know why you are hyping this up. It is certainly mild but nothing out of the ordinary to be honest but more importantly it is not dry. And this is the most important factor here. We need a decent anticylonic spell and there isn't any.

mild is mild (11-15 celsius range) and it looks like a northwest - southeast split is on the way, high pressure building across mainland europe and the jet buckling sw / ne with a long draw sw'ly later in the month, very unsettled to the northwest, drier at times to the south & east.

Edited by Frosty.
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mmm...hyping it up or simply commenting on what one of the models is showing at a point in time..? is he doing what we're supposed to be doing on this forum?

The emoticon used is a big clue. My observation is on the emoticon.----->Posted Image

It ain't a shock. If it was showing 10C 850hpa and maxima in the high teens maybe.

With this winter, if it was showing high pressure sat over the UK. Definitely!!!

Edited by Weather-history
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The emoticon used is a big clue. My observation is on the emoticon.----->Posted Image

It ain't a shock. If it was showing 10C 850hpa and maxima in the high teens maybe.

With this winter, if it was showing high pressure sat over the UK. Definitely!!!

Yeah, have to agree.

Corkingly mild? I would not think so from looking at the charts below.

post-9331-0-02650000-1392458759_thumb.jp

post-9331-0-23226600-1392459284_thumb.jp

Edited by Mr Frost
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Well the models have really dismissed the idea of returning to anything anticyclonic

 

After some slightly less unsettled conditions early next week the train seems to begin again.

 

With the UKMO model showing another troublesome storm tracking over Ireland @ 132hrs.

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If the mid Atlantic trough does dig and settle, the upper sceuro ridge driven in response could well bring double digit maxes to parts of the UK for the last week of February. Alternatively, there are also signs that we see more of the same, though with the jet somewhat further north and slacker and a wider thermal gradient upstream, it would be less wet and less windy in general with the nw of the UK closer to the 'action'.

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