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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]

    If we do pick up a Northerly flow next week onwards, we won't need to worry about the wishbone effect which would be for showers restricted to northern, eastern and western coastal regions. The rapidly increasing strength of the mid to late march sunshine means convection levels rocketing and enabling beefy wintry showers to develop and spread out inland, whereas through winter, areas inland would be generally clear and sunny.

    Indeed and if the temperatures are on the borderline those heavy showers should help with convective cooling to change over to snow. That's all dependent on the marginality of the situation...too warm and it will just be heavy rain. Though warm and northerly are barely in the same sentence.

     

    Def interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Gfs 00z op run shows an FI Northerly toppler followed by a frosty ridge...BANKPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The ECMWF isn't quite so bold and the GFS isn't quite so adamant. At the moment at the ten day period the High is sneaking away to the SW. Possibly some unsettled weather for the north this weekend but the SW in the clear.

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    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Well the GFS and ECM keep the unsettled weather in week 2 and fail to really bring it into the 7 day range.

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    If this is right then the breakdown would have been delayed by near enough a full week given it was originally predicted to happen this coming weekend.

     

    GEM on the other hand is more unsettled by the middle of next week.

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    Well the ECM has hopped to the GFS solution this morning which leaves the GEM isolated, worth noting the UKMO looks like heading in a similar direction to the GFS/ECM way at day 6.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    This time last year, parts of the uk were buried under several feet of drifting snow, how the tables have turned, this and the gfs toppler is the FI crumb of interest for coldies, bearing in mind that we couldn't even get a decent cold shot from the north throughout the whole of winter...As for the Ecm 00z, it looks rather flatter than recently with high pressure building in across the south more often and the most unsettled weather across the north..a north / south split.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Decent ECM this morning its caught onto GFS's idea of another pressure rise next week and for some in the south high pressure never leaves Posted Image

     

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    Pressure then moves away but once again any cold air is in deepest FI

     

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    UKMO also shows high pressure coming back but not to the extent of ECM for now

     

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    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Another day, and another delay to any rain for the bulk of England and Wales now next Friday at the earliest

     

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    Temperatures remain above average for all

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

    Another week of pleasant Spring weather to come with high pressure to the south of the UK feeding in mild westerlies for most of the time. The ECM has cooler air sinking south over the UK for a time tues/wed next week but nothing remarkably cold, just bringing temperatures back to average values in an otherwise mild and dry outlook.

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    The breakdown continues to be pushed back. In the reliable high pressure is here to stay. Any cold is way out in FI, so it's getting a bit desperate now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UKMO backing away from any pressure rise mid next week

     

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    GFS similar

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    12z GFS may raise a few eyebrows among hard core coldies. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=216&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

    But in reality we all know come the 22nd it will be completely different from what that chart shows.
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    With a more unsettled run from GFS rainfall amounts looks higher next week now especially so for south west England, western parts of England and Wales along with NW Scotland

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    FI weekend northerly, feel it might come off, as northerlies tend to arrive at weekends, well topplers anyway, snow for some coming up 22-24 mar

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Well the GFS and ECM keep the unsettled weather in week 2 and fail to really bring it into the 7 day range.

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    If this is right then the breakdown would have been delayed by near enough a full week given it was originally predicted to happen this coming weekend.

     

    GEM on the other hand is more unsettled by the middle of next week.

    Posted Image

     

    Well the ECM has hopped to the GFS solution this morning which leaves the GEM isolated, worth noting the UKMO looks like heading in a similar direction to the GFS/ECM way at day 6.

     

     

    Hmm I think it fair to say the models are painting a less cold and less unsettled picture than they did so I guess it can be argued now any breakdown has been delayed but the breakdown was programmed for around 16th/17th and GFS ensembles still show pressure and temps falling away from the 16th it is just the breakdown is less vigorous then before because the pattern got moved East allowing the AH to ridge back in.

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=234&y=37

     

    I must admit at one stage it looked like any breakdown had been cancelled altogether so dramatic was the turn around after the sharp Northerly was dropped and output began to show the Azores high ridging West ever more strongly but things seem to be gong back the other way this evening.

    A lot depends on how we define a breakdown though and that can be subjective and location dependent, the South will certainly hang on to settled weather the longest but even UKMO has the weather breaking down proper on the 18th and looks unsettled thereafter so I think it is a a bit of a push to say any breakdown has been delayed anything like a week, maybe a couple of days depending on definition and if you are talking about the South.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    But in reality we all know come the 22nd it will be completely different from what that chart shows.

    Yeah hoping it's even more wintry than that. I know deserving has nothing to do with it, but coldies really do deserve a few cold snaps before it's too late.
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    Posted
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire

    So so far today the Gfs and ecm have both returned a mobile pattern for the 19th. The Gem stays put at mobile and the uk met continues its trend of sinking the high south (someone seemed to intimate it was going with the ecm and gfs high solution) but I disagree thinking it was shifting south.

    I wonder if this sudden change is due to models getting a handle on upstream changes. But still its quite a dramatic change from 2 of the big 3.

    I also wonder of the gem has some real good embedded code and dynamics for handling the virtex compared to other models. it seems to have done well from time to time. We await next week but one must not complain. This week has been crisp first thing but extremely pleasant

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    I wonder if its the new gfs running in parallel?

     

    Well,its running in 3rd place so maybe.Posted Image 

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    If this chart is way off the mark then somebody needs to reboot the ECM computer. Push the BBQ back into the shed. Even the Azores high has it`s coat on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Yeah hoping it's even more wintry than that. I know deserving has nothing to do with it, but coldies really do deserve a few cold snaps before it's too late.

    Sadly, even though the wintry-looking Northerly on the GFS 12Z seems to be of a fairly decent quality for the cold and snow fans, apparently it didn't go down terribly well with the ratings tonight...post-10703-0-93355900-1394738692_thumb.jThe lowish ratings appear to be down to the fact that the judges expected the Northerly to be longer lasting, been even more direct and straighter, and to have had -10*C 850 hPa's mixed in. Furthermore, the guy who gave it a '4' was hoping to see a Northerly that would be capable to produce snow showers of mass destruction. Crikey! No wonder his rating was low. :oEdit: As such, I can see why you're hoping for the Northerly to be improved. Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    It does look good for southern uk for some time to come with high pressure hanging on, tending to become centred to the south west of the uk for a while but then building back in across the south...different story for northern uk with lower heights persisting to the north / north west of the BI with changeable / unsettled and windier weather at times....As for winter 2013 / 14...this is the best place for it..out with the rest of the trash.Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Any cold potential just keeps getting pushed further and further out..story of Winter 13/14 that's for sure - yup, shove it in the rubbish bin til next time now Posted Image

    Not that my statement shall actually make one bit of difference....

     

     

    Both GFS and ECM both show a northerly shot by 21st/22nd. Yes still beyond the reliable timeframe, but this theme of a northerly developing around the spring equinox has been a persistant one over recent days.

     

    However, it does look like heights will remain strong to the SW so any northerly will be a shortlived affair before pressure builds in. I do believe the longer term trend is for northerly airstreams to get the upper hand as we see heights building more firmly to our NW accompanied by a shift in position and weakening of the PV.

     

    In the meantime staying very pleasant over southern Britain with much dry sunny weather, however, more unsettled for the northern half with light rain, drizzle cloud and wind from time to time.

     

    I do think the word 'warm' is being applied far to liberally in describing current conditions. It is used in June to describe temps in low 20's yet the sun is far stronger then. Indeed I'd hardly describe today as warm here, we maxed out at 8 degrees after a cold foggy morning with temps still languishing around 4-5 degrees at lunchtime! Also how can you call a spell of weather with successive nights below freezing as 'warm'..

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    Posted
  • Location: Coast of West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: early spring, warm summers and cold winters
  • Location: Coast of West Dorset

    "I do think the word 'warm' is being applied far to liberally in describing current conditions. It is used in June to describe temps in low 20's yet the sun is far stronger then. Indeed I'd hardly describe today as warm here, we maxed out at 8 degrees after a cold foggy morning with temps still languishing around 4-5 degrees at lunchtime! Also how can you call a spell of weather with successive nights below freezing as 'warm'.."

    A bit of a sweeping statement as it obviously depends where you are. Currently 9c outside with clear skies after a balmy day and we've had no temperatures below freezing for a while. If the northerly happens in the next 10 days I doubt it will impact much on us soft southerners!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    "I do think the word 'warm' is being applied far to liberally in describing current conditions. It is used in June to describe temps in low 20's yet the sun is far stronger then. Indeed I'd hardly describe today as warm here, we maxed out at 8 degrees after a cold foggy morning with temps still languishing around 4-5 degrees at lunchtime! Also how can you call a spell of weather with successive nights below freezing as 'warm'.."A bit of a sweeping statement as it obviously depends where you are. Currently 9c outside with clear skies after a balmy day and we've had no temperatures below freezing for a while. If the northerly happens in the next 10 days I doubt it will impact much on us soft southerners!

     

     

    Its the fact the BBC and media as a whole is describing things as warm nationwide which is not the case. I probably sound pedantic but they should be saying warm under the sunshine and light winds in southern parts only, rather than a headline saying 'warm sunshine', which is what the BBC have just stated as a summary for the weekend. anyone who may have just read this a summary statement without seeing the actual forecast is being very misled, the weekend for the northern half of the country will see no 'warm sunshine' indeed plagued by cloud drizzle and wind with temps average at best. A case of southern bias I think...

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