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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

The 3 main models all have a very similar pattern over the weekend as, what some call, a trigger low develops over the Iceland area to bring cold air on its western flank. A similar pattern shown on the Fax 120h from Met last evening, okay the timing may change somewhat, but the probability of a colder snap seems fairly clear. How cold, how long is open to doubt and no doubt endless discussion on here prior to it happening?

I suspect a snap 36-60 hours perhaps?

I could be wrong=would not be the first time but unless all 3 anomaly charts support anything longer then I will stick with the above. So far only ECMWF has tended towards this in this morning's upper air outlook. There is a slight tendency on the NOAA 6-10 to suggest the upper flow veering but the upper trough is shown way east at the moment.

 

In the meantime enjoy the spring like dry spell, but do pay attention to the skew-t diagrams each morning to see if cloud will bubble up only to get trapped beneath any inversion.

 

The visual sat piccs will also be useful; looking at the latest shows areas of cloud SE of here with 8/8 blue sky in this area and many others.

Edited by johnholmes
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ECM ensembles look quite promising for the South at least to hang onto decent temps until around the 18th with a bit of a rebound for a couple of days.

This no doubt due to Azores high ridging in more strongly than previous output.

 

Posted Image

 

This shows up quite well if we look at ensembles for the North of England where we can see the initial cold plunge attempting to push down from the 15th but because the pattern has shifted East somewhat we then get two more days of decent weather as the AH ridges back in before the next trough digs down.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=251&y=38

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=251&y=38&run=6&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

So it could be the north loses the warm sunshine from the 15th though with a gradual breakdown rather than a sharp switch while the South may hold on a couple more days.

Still strong agreement though on colder weather pushing down from the North thereafter.

 

Not beyond the bounds of possibility for the plunge on the 18th to be shifted East as well, though alternatively things could still get moved back west.

 

Other news.

 

I very nearly stepped on a wasp this morning on my bathroom floor - don't think I have ever encountered one in early March before. 

Edited by Mucka
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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is trending more wintry next week, especially further north, fair to good chance of a strong polar maritime or arctic blast in the 7-10 days timeframe..what a big difference in weather that would be in the space of a week or so..I love varietyPosted Image

I feel this is one of those cliff-hanger northerlies - there's certainly a chance of HP regression into the Atlantic by mid-next week allowing low pressure to move NW-SE - but a correction of barely a few hundred miles could keep the south relatively mild and dry. I'm going to take a punt on the milder solution for the south, with the cold being a northern "clipper" - the window for HP to veer up to Iceland is small and looks like it may easily get cut off by subsequent lows crossing the N Atlantic.
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ECM ensembles look quite promising for the South at least to hang onto decent temps until around the 18th with a bit of a rebound for a couple of days.

This no doubt due to Azores high ridging in more strongly than previous output.

 

Posted Image

 

This shows up quite well if we look at ensembles for the North of England where we can see the initial cold plunge attempting to push down from the 15th but because the pattern has shifted East somewhat we then get two more days of decent weather as the AH ridges back in before the next trough digs down.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=251&y=38

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=251&y=38&run=6&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

So it could be the north loses the warm sunshine from the 15th though with a gradual breakdown rather than a sharp switch while the South may hold on a couple more days.

Still strong agreement though on colder weather pushing down from the North thereafter.

 

Not beyond the bounds of possibility for the plunge on the 18th to be shifted East as well, though alternatively things could still get moved back west.

 

Other news.

 

I very nearly stepped on a wasp this morning on my bathroom floor - don't think I have ever encountered one in early March before. 

 

 

bet it was a shock for the wasp as well

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UKMO showing the high lasting through the weekend

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

GFS shows things turning more unsettled and cooler next week though the south holds on to some decent temps the longest

 

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Before it turns cooler for us all

 

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Pretty ironic after all this dismal winter, that we have a possibility of the first proper cold plunge, in Spring.

We have have been let down several times, lets hope we have have something to salvage.

Even a wintery shower, will do!

In here some grand posts take place, although on occasion it can get bitter in here. This really sways many away from posting like myself as I was scared of the reaction after it has cooled down, I have taken the courage to post here. We should draw a line, and move on as friendly, respectable people, it don't take much?

Emotions run high but we must not get ahead of our selfs - I know this is of topic but thought it was necessary :)

Edited by Daniel*
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Well the GFS says yes to a colder spell in a week or so time

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Low pressure slipping south east through Norway with high pressure retrogressing westwards to open the door to some bitter north winds

 

GEM on the other hand is saying no

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Suggesting a stronger westerly jet with high pressure remaining to the south west but close enough to keep the UK in rather average conditions.

You need the clearance of the low heights to our north west to develop a distinguished Scandi trough and pull winds round to the north, if we don't then we will end up with a rather average westerly pattern. 

 

Might add the GFS ens look good for a cold snap beyond day 7

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GEFS Day 10 mean

 

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Looks pretty darn chilly for the time of the year, and if it was to verify it would be a massive shock to the system after this weeks springlike conditions.

 

Definitely momentum building now for a 'cold shot' later this month.

 

Interesting ECM 12Z coming up, especially day 7 onwards.

 

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Well this sums up what I said earlier

Posted Image

No clearance over the Greenland region which results in the high being flattened and a westerly flow returning. We need all the energy over Greenland/Canada gone to allow the Azores high to back as far north and west as possible.

Whilst I may have been very pro this high pressure spell, I would not say no to a decent northerly as we lose the pleasant sunny weather type as the high slips away south west anyway. It would be nice to have a nice mix of unseasonable warmth and cold because March is probably the best month to get both (as 2012 and 2013 showed in polar opposite ways)

 

I must admit I'm not liking the way the ECM is heading late on (return to very wet conditions)

Edited by Captain shortwave
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trend strengthening re cooler weather into next week, with the Scandi trough seen to influence conditions over the UK. A north westerly for a time, will bring much cooler weather than of late, before the ext ecm mean indicates the flow switching to a westerly - with the temp anomaly going slightly positive for the UK into day 14/15.

 

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Day 13 MSL mean.

 

It looks like it could be a rather unsettled end to March looking at the ecm/gem ens tonight.

 

Posted Image

days 10-15 height anomalies./ecm

Edited by draztik
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Start of FI shows a countrywide snow event with widespread -10c uppers!

One thing for sure, is that if it does verify, it would make this winter an absolute laughing stock!

Maybe / If / Verify... Call it what you like!......A countrywide snow event with widespread -10c uppers! An absolute laughing stock!...... YES WITH JOYPosted Image

 

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