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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I'm rather underwhelmed by the longer term trend from the models. Although I love the cold and snow during winter a slushy spring mess isn't so inspiring but of course I do understand those wanting to see a few snowflakes given the complete lack of this during the winter.

     

    http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

     

    Looking at the De Bilt ensembles pretty solidly behind a drop in temps after next week.

     

    The issue normally in these set ups is how far west any high displaces to and whether the core cold ends up to the east or through the UK, the pattern upstream looks slack in terms of jet but not really that amplified so although likely to turn somewhat colder I wouldn't be getting too excited just yet.

     

    Although the main PV is likely to relocate to the east its whether any remnants get left behind in Canada which still could be the spoiler, anyway at least some nice dry weather to enjoy for a while yet which I'm sure is a big relief to many.

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    The ECM 0z WILL moderate the cold, just can't see any snow on the horizon.

    Edited by Barry95
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    The ECM 0z WILL moderate the cold, just can't see any snow on the horizon.

     

    How much for the crystal ball. Interested in buying it before next week's lottery draw.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    ECM mean pointing to a cooler regime after days 8/9

     

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    There could be some further wintry precipitation over the Scottish snow fields still - what a brilliant season they've had in contrast to the rest of us poor s*ds Posted Image

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    GFS looks to be disagreeing on the latest cold plunge situation, and throwing up a rain fest instead with a low forming right over us.

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    I think its in agreement the high will slowly drift Westwards as we head into the latter part of the week which may allow something more cooler in for a short while before another pool of mild air head towards us although this will come with a lot of cloud due to the direction its coming from. 

     

    Not too convinced on a proper Arctic blast tbh but its one of those where it could easily occur if it all comes together, its certainly one too keep an eye on and on I hope occurs so we can see the 2 contrasting sides of Spring and plus with daytime heating, a cold shot could develop inland convection which could mean snow showers for many places but of course, that is a long way off. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny
  • Location: South Cheshire

    The ECM 0z WILL moderate the cold, just can't see any snow on the horizon.

    It is only there for one day anyway then it's gone again, and it's 9 days away anyway, hopecasters never learn.

    Edited by CongletonHeat
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Cheers mucka, 20 celsius in kent yesterday, i'm sure steve murr loved that..Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I hope this verifies..I really, really hope this verifiesPosted Image

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    post-4783-0-38846400-1394440246_thumb.pn

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    post-4783-0-64199400-1394440297_thumb.pn

    post-4783-0-23563700-1394440319_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Before we get to anything colder the reliable time-frame from UKMO continues to have high pressure dominating as our first settled spell for 14 weeks kicks off in full today

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    If we have learned anything from this past winter, its not to give too much credit to any cold shown post day 10.

    so lets look at days 8 thru 10 (and a wee bit beyond :p)

    gefs and ext ecm show the milder air being replaced with cooler air, from the north. At this stage, im using cooler rather than colder, but the momentum and trend exists for this to become rather chilly indeed, for time of year.

    here is how the ens see it, days 8 thru 13. (surface temp anomaly gefs, 5k ft temp anomaly ecm)

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by draztik
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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    How much for the crystal ball. Interested in buying it before next week's lottery draw.

    Well, the crystal ball was right.
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    Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m

    NW winds are most common in March over any other month of course.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: East Exeter, Devon

    I am expecting dry sunny weather over a large majority of the British Isles between now and Thursday (13th), the main exceptions being north-west Scotland (cloudier starting tomorrow) and possibly the south coast of England (some patchy frontal cloud from today's front may hang around, though here there should be some sunshine in between).  Thursday looks like being the warmest day in the north, and Friday may be warmest in the south as the warm sunny weather retreats southwards.

    The weekend looks like being mostly dry away from northern Scotland, but generally cooler and cloudier.  Sheltered places to the east of high ground will probably still see some sunny breaks though.

     

    The NOAA's 8-14 day outlook points towards a cooler north-westerly theme between the 17th and 23rd.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

     

    Looking at this plus the outputs from GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, I think some sort of northerly outbreak is probable around the 20th, but a lot will depend on where the main northerly blast hits- its main "thrust" could well end up out in the North Sea, giving Britain a couple of cool frosty days but no snow away from the Scottish Highlands, but there is a chance of a brief snowy blast along the lines of what we had on the 18th-20th March 2007.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is trending more wintry next week, especially further north, fair to good chance of a strong polar maritime or arctic blast in the 7-10 days timeframe..what a big difference in weather that would be in the space of a week or so..I love varietyPosted Image

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    post-4783-0-76486000-1394456796_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

    The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is trending more wintry next week, especially further north, fair to good chance of a strong polar maritime or arctic blast in the 7-10 days timeframe..what a big difference in weather that would be in the space of a week or so..I love varietyPosted Image

    Typical mad March weather. I can predict the Daily Mail headline already:

    "From the furnace to the FREEZER, Britain braced for 20C DROP in temperatures"

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    Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

    Why people would rather have cool and wet, over warm and dry is completely beyond me. All winter the models were showing cold in FI, which in the end either never materialised or the cold was seriously moderated down by the time we got to the timeframe. So unless this cold get's into the reliable which is T+120 in my opinion, then I don't see why anyone should get excited. In the reliable high pressure is with us keeping things mild and dry, after that it will most likely turn cooler, but nothing special and not cold enough for snow apart from over maybe northern hills.

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