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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Well the breakdown according to the GFS and ens is around day 10, which is the same point it was a couple of days ago so maybe the high is proving to be a little more resilient than the models first thought, well except the GEM which is adamant that high pressure will be fully in charge even by day 10.

The high looks to set up in a very good position next week so it will come down to any fronts being trapped in situ as to where cloud might turn up as there shouldn't be too much low cloud drifting onto windward coasts. 

Notice how much warmer that North Sea is now as to what it was this time last year! Think that should make a huge difference on the run up to summer. If we do get nagging Northeasterlies, they wont be as piercing as they were last year due to the really cold sea temps.

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Notice how much warmer that North Sea is now as to what it was this time last year! Think that should make a huge difference on the run up to summer. If we do get nagging Northeasterlies, they wont be as piercing as they were last year due to the really cold sea temps.

likewise those Spanish plumes and storms might manage to make it to the UK unlike last year. Posted Image

ECM showing the high in a really nice position

Posted Image

Chilly nights and warm sunny days near enough countrywide hopefully.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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A NW-SE split looks like setting up over the weekend, with most of England and Wales experiencing dry, warm and increasingly sunny conditions, but most of Scotland and Ireland will be cloudy and damp and this cloudy damp weather may extend into Cumbria and north Lancashire.

 

On Monday the front will slowly push south-eastwards, which will result in a spell of cloudy weather moving south-eastwards through England and Wales:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

 

However, the FAX and GFS cloud cover charts point to the front clearing out into the English Channel by Tuesday and the air mass following behind it is polar maritime so at the moment a "sunny" high looks more probable than a "cloudy" one.  The high is also projected to be further north than I had expected when I last posted in the model output thread, so instead of predicting cloudy weather for the north and west of Scotland and Cumbria, I now think that there's a good chance that cloudy conditions will be mostly confined to north-west Scotland.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Plenty of eye candy in the latter stages of the 12z gefs this afternoon for Northerly fans with a

chilly looking ensemble mean.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-300.png?12

 

 

Posted Image

Yes growing signs of a cold snap (spell) developing perhaps around the 19th onwards. Good strat warming forecast which would probably be the instigator of this and could possibly lead to colder and perhaps wintry incursions during April as well. Loving the dry spell but we have plenty of time for warmth and a couple of spring snowfalls would not go amiss.

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ECM still thinks the high will start and breakdown by the end of next week

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

A bit ominous that final ECM chart, but an eight to ten day spell of generally settled weather isn't to be sniffed at. Its a start on the road to recovery down in Southern England that's if you can avoid the potholes on route to it, in which case, let's refer to them as clouds. Outside of any cloud, it will potentially get very warm for the time of year with hopefully slight frosts by night. Not too worried about forecasting actual Air Temperatures by day as I stated previously, just very pleased to see the DRY signal. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Yes growing signs of a cold snap (spell) developing perhaps around the 19th onwards. Good strat warming forecast which would probably be the instigator of this and could possibly lead to colder and perhaps wintry incursions during April as well. Loving the dry spell but we have plenty of time for warmth and a couple of spring snowfalls would not go amiss.

 

The 12z does have some nice eye candy

 

and as you say around the 19th onwards which is around the same time as last year  we had a cold snap/spell  here is hoping for 1 last chance 

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Hints at t216 and t240 on tonight's ECM that the high may try and come back especially for those in the south

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

A trend to throw up cells from the Azores High emerging ... southern UK may see very little rain in the next two weeks, and a few warm days thrown in too. 

You can see how colder air could threaten come mid month, with HP establishing over Canada and the remnants of the the cold pool over Greenland ready to be pushed our way, but it would require the co-operation of the Azores High, otherwise it will continue to slide to the north of us.

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Just when you thought High Pressure systems no longer liked the UK (especially with the way Winter had turned out) they've seemed to have changed their mind. In fact, that High Pressure system currently modelled to our South-East/East, looks as though it will get a new friend to join him in the new few days. The likes of the GFS, ECMWF etc, show his friend moving in from the West and then centring itself over and/or to the East of the UK for the beginning of next week onwards (though is possible that those mischief makers (Lows) to our North/North-West may try to knock the dude back South-West within time with more of a North-Westerly flow possibly establishing eventually). But it does look as though this fella underneath could be making a fair few appearances during the next few days or so as the result of a more invasive High Pressure outlook...

post-10703-0-38512600-1394221102_thumb.j

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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ECM ensemble now supporting the Idea that the high will last longer for many of us

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

A mid month breakdown is not set in stone by any means yet

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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As I thought, it seems any breakdown is being pushed back. The GFS keeps high pressure in control well into FI and the ECM has not shown anything unsettled before T+192hrs for a couple of days now- it's just not getting any closer. Fingers crossed we could be in for a long dry and mild spell.

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As I thought, it seems any breakdown is being pushed back. The GFS keeps high pressure in control well into FI and the ECM has not shown anything unsettled before T+192hrs for a couple of days now- it's just not getting any closer. Fingers crossed we could be in for a long dry and mild spell.

dont worry, the cold will come back

Posted Image

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I think people need to temper their expectations, there will be a breakdown at some point, it is still only early/mid March. We aren't going to see such pleasant weather as forecast uninterupted until next Autumn/Winter. You have to expect average March conditions to return at some point, and even that will be a shock to the system. You can get appreciably cool/cold conditions up until May, even beyond. 

 

The laws of Fantasy Island apply to pleasant weather, too.

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The inevitable is a likely collapse to more unsettled conditions from the NW as we move through middle part of the month, may take a couple of goes for the south but the models are increasingly supporting such a scenario.

 

Before we get there lots of dry sunny pleasant weather ahead which I think most will welcome.

 

Those thinking another March 2012 is on the cards should think again, background signals are very different now compared to then - and the key trigger will be a shift in the PV with heights rises finally breaking through to our NW, all very normal as we progress further into Spring. On average late March - mid May sees the atlantic at its quietest and northerlies and easterlies at their yearly maxim.

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The inevitable is a likely collapse to more unsettled conditions from the NW as we move through middle part of the month, may take a couple of goes for the south but the models are increasingly supporting such a scenario.

 

Before we get there lots of dry sunny pleasant weather ahead which I think most will welcome.

 

Those thinking another March 2012 is on the cards should think again, background signals are very different now compared to then - and the key trigger will be a shift in the PV with heights rises finally breaking through to our NW, all very normal as we progress further into Spring. On average late March - mid May sees the atlantic at its quietest and northerlies and easterlies at their yearly maxim.

I think tonight we are beginning to see signs that the Azores High may not be done with us by next weekend. Some sort of briefly cooler and more unsettled conditions likely for the North thus far but not really the charts a couple of days ago where a some proper northerlies were being touted.

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I think tonight we are beginning to see signs that the Azores High may not be done with us by next weekend. Some sort of briefly cooler and more unsettled conditions likely for the North thus far but not really the charts a couple of days ago where a some proper northerlies were being touted.

 

 

As I said it may take a couple of attempts to rid the south from the influence of high pressure, but there are stirrings that the PV is on the shift and the eventual outcome will be much cooler unsettled conditions from the north - the transition taking place slowly through third week of March.

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As I said it may take a couple of attempts to rid the south from the influence of high pressure, but there are stirrings that the PV is on the shift and the eventual outcome will be much cooler unsettled conditions from the north - the transition taking place slowly through third week of March.

True but I certainly would say before it was looking like cooler and unsettled for all by next weekend, perhaps just the North now.

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I think we will see a cloudy high rather than one that brings us lots of sunshine.. indeed the Met-office forecast into Monday-Tuesday seems to be hinting at this, with rather suppressed temperatures. This would of course suppress frost at night too, which would otherwise be a feature in these setups. We will have to see how it evolves over the next few days.

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I think we will see a cloudy high rather than one that brings us lots of sunshine.. indeed the Met-office forecast into Monday-Tuesday seems to be hinting at this, with rather suppressed temperatures. This would of course suppress frost at night too, which would otherwise be a feature in these setups. We will have to see how it evolves over the next few days.

Wednesday looking sunnier though. Here in the South West, Tuesday looks quite good too with perhaps only Monday being the real cloudy day for most. Temperatures will pick up next week. All week the temperatures have been upgrading for this weekend. Notice there is now 16c on Sunday for Cambridgeshire.

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It reached 17 celsius today and more of those sort of temperatures to come, some lucky places could hit 19 to 20c during the next 5 to 7 days. It will become very anticyclonic and there will be lots of sunshine but with cloudier spells, chilly nights where skies clear. Despite some of the models showing an erosion of the fine spell by the end of next week, the high could become difficult to shift.

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I suspect under high pressure, and given the cold sea surface temperatures and warm upper air, sea fog could become an issue, though as yet, this hasn't been expressed by the Met-office.

Edited by SP1986
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Sorry Sp 1986 i think this could be a much worse affair,re clean air through then pressure building in an ok area of the BI.Most places should see v mild temp n sun witth exep to the rule,n,w Irl,Scot?.

Thats if im reading it correct.

PS, i meant if your doubting good weather lol.

Edited by joggs
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