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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Scary how much this is reminding me of 2012. We saw the high slip away West and the jet drive round from the North and dig down. We all know what followed on from then... 

 

What did happen then?

 

I thought in 2012 we had lovely warm weather?

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Scary how much this is reminding me of 2012. We saw the high slip away West and the jet drive round from the North and dig down. We all know what followed on from then...

Ummm it rained???
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What did happen then?

 

I thought in 2012 we had lovely warm weather?

Yes in March we did, but at the end of the month, the high retrogressed Westwards allowing the jetstream down from the North.

We then saw the wettest April on record, and also the wettest summer on record! 

We also got told the hosepipe bans would last until Autumn I believe. They actually got lifted before summer even started! And the river Nene saw its levels go from the lowest on record to nearly bursting its banks all within a month.

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Yes in March we did, but at the end of the month, the high retrogressed Westwards allowing the jetstream down from the North.

We then saw the wettest April on record, and also the wettest summer on record! 

We also got told the hosepipe bans would last until Autumn I believe. They actually got lifted before summer even started! And the river Nene saw its levels go from the lowest on record to nearly bursting its banks all within a month.

 

Thats jogged my memory I remember now! Im very concerned about snowfall W/C 24th this year and im hoping were snow free!! 

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Think the charts will change somewhat. i do think we could see some pretty potent PM blasts giving heavy hail showers and hill snow.

 

So long as theres no widespread disruptive snow ill be happy. Got a hell of a lot of travelling to do around the country and cannot afford to not do it!

 

I suppose its nearly 3 weeks away and the charts can change vastly in that time. 

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Think the charts will change somewhat. i do think we could see some pretty potent PM blasts giving heavy hail showers and hill snow.

Yes thats certainly what the GFS has been hinting at for the last few days, the second half of March could be cooler than most of Winter just gone, which wouldn't take much.. Edited by Polar Maritime
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Yes thats certainly what the GFS has been hinting at for the last few days, the second half of March could be cooler than most of Winter just gone, which wouldn't take much..

I could survive with hill snow just not settling snow on lower grounds.

Dont want a march 2013 again

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Another stunning run from GEM as it continues to live upto its name in producing yet another gem of a run again with no sign what so ever of a mid month breakdown

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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I wouldn't pin your hopes on GEM, it is about as reliable as this GEFS outlier.

 

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I expect the weather will gradually become more unsettled and cooler from the North after mid month but hard to day how cool or how long an unsettled spell will last as yet.

Edited by Mucka
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I wouldn't pin your hopes on GEM, it is about as reliable as this GEFS outlier.

 

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I expect the weather will gradually become more unsettled and cooler from the North after mid month but hard to day how cool or how long an unsettled spell will last as yet.

Probably right there, though the GEM does show the typical resilience of heights nears the UK once they get established so it might have the high further north compared to other models it might still be closest to the mark.

To get a northerly like the one above we need a drastic reduction in the strength of the jet coming out of the state which to be honest I don't really see. Probably a breakdown to unsettled conditions in the north whilst the south is drier is a decent bet here.

Still good to see that the high isn't forecast to drift into any annoying positions which bring the low cloud conveyor belt our way.

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Whilst uncertainty obviously remains from mid month, I think it is great we can finally look forward to a nice spell of settled weather next week now which is beginning to approach the reliable timeframe. When was the last time we had that!? :D

Hopefully it won't end up being a cloudy high though...

BBC seem confident going by their evening weather broadcast stating warm sunshine with frosty nights for most.

However hints of a cooler, unsettled second half to March are appearing in the model runs, but plenty of time to change for things to change. Something to keep an eye on for now...

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ECM Op shows the high starting to break down a week on Friday this evening but before that we have lots of settled and hopefully sunny weather to come

 

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The the high starts to break down from the north though the far south may hang on to the best of the drier sunnier weather with the high never too far away

 

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Another good run from the ECM in the reliable to semi-reliable. Cooler unsettled weather just a fantasy on an island Posted Image

 

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Yes but the cool unsettled weather that is expected to take over after mid month is just at or beyond the 10 day range of ECM.

Even so by 240h we can see that ECM is about to introduce more unsettled cooler weather from the North and West with that trough likely to dig down and displace the Azores high West

 

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So it is actually in line with current thoughts for cooler and more unsettled second half to March.

Edited by Mucka
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Yes but the cool unsettled weather that is expected to take over after mid month is just at or beyond the 10 day range of ECM.

Even so by 240h we can see that ECM is about to introduce more unsettled cooler weather from the North and West with that trough likely to dig down and displace the Azores high West

 

 

'Mid-month' is out of the reliable timeframe at the moment so I don't think anything can be 'expected' that far out. 240h is well into FI- anything could happen before then, and there is a good chance any breakdown could be pushed back.

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Scary how much this is reminding me of 2012. We saw the high slip away West and the jet drive round from the North and dig down. We all know what followed on from then... 

2009 and 2011 also featured spells of high pressure sandwiched with colder, unsettled conditions. i'd say they bear more resemblance than 2012 as it stands....for what it's worth anyway.

 

GEM aside, no change in the longer term outlook as it stands. Week/10 days of settled followed predictably and typically enough by something more unsettled the nature of which is to be decided....

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ECM Op shows the high starting to break down a week on Friday this evening but before that we have lots of settled and hopefully sunny weather to come

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

The the high starts to break down from the north though the far south may hang on to the best of the drier sunnier weather with the high never too far away

 

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gavin im sure  your got blinkers  on  some  times  look what could happen  march  17 on wards dont  know about  warm weather there hints  of snow and  cold  weather

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

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gavin im sure  your got blinkers  on  some  times  look what could happen  march  17 on wards dont  know about  warm weather there hints  of snow and  cold  weather

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

Probably because it's 11+ days away and well out of any reasonably forecasting confidence.

ECM ens want high pressure to decline south westwards into week 2 still but whether we will return to bog standard unsettled conditions or colder and wetter conditions. Before then enjoy the pleasant spring weather we will receive with hopefully very little cloud around.

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ECM ensemble shows the high gradually sinking south towards the end of its run though the far south should hang on to the brightest weather longest before we all move into a more unsettled pattern

 

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'Mid-month' is out of the reliable timeframe at the moment so I don't think anything can be 'expected' that far out. 240h is well into FI- anything could happen before then, and there is a good chance any breakdown could be pushed back.

 

Agreed but when considering long wave patterns one can be a little more confident. I think it is likely we wills ee a breakdown after mid month though exactly how that develops is very much out of the reliable range.

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