Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[Spikecollie]

I'm off skiing in France a week on Saturday, looks like some warmth hitting the Alps for a while at least...I wonder if this Euro high will get bowled over by the strong vortex by then.

Lucky you...Météo France are progging 16-18c quite widely after things settle down. Not sure what this will do to the avalanche risk, it very much depends which resort area you're headed too.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 00z precipitation charts show something significantly drier from next weekend to mid March

 

Edited February 28, 2014 by Summer Sun

[summer blizzard]

March 2012, screw you!

 

 

 

Good to see greater confidence of a pressure build, though i suspect it will be transitory.

[knocker]

I don't know

 

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z ensembles showing a clear rise in temperatures from around March 6th to 11th on the London ensemble not much precipitation around either, every chance it could turn very mild in the south for a time from late next week, temperatures could easily get up to the high teens

 

 

On the Aberdeen ensemble any warm up isn't so clear like it is further south though precipitation should be fairly low

 

 

Down to Manchester and we have hints of something milder like the London ensemble again precipitation should be low

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

A quick glance at the NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks indicates a trend towards more high pressure ridging across Europe compared with a few days ago.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

I had previously had some thoughts that we could get a watered-down version of March 1995 with some cold zonality mixed with warm anticyclonic interludes, and a mean temperature close to average as a result, but this morning's model outputs and the NOAA update are pointing more towards a March 1989/1990 type pattern with high pressure ridging into Europe and the jet stream tracking further north.  Thus I think the signs are that we're going to get a warm March with sunshine and rainfall showing an enhanced NW-SE split and just the occasional colder blast from the NW, at least in the first half of the month.

[summer blizzard]

GFS 06z ensembles showing a clear rise in temperatures from around March 6th to 11th on the London ensemble not much precipitation around either, every chance it could turn very mild in the south for a time from late next week, temperatures could easily get up to the high teens

 

 

On the Aberdeen ensemble any warm up isn't so clear like it is further south though precipitation should be fairly low

 

 

Down to Manchester and we have hints of something milder like the London ensemble again precipitation should be low

 

 

Does the warm up have backing from pressure ensembles?

[johnholmes]

A quick glance at the NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks indicates a trend towards more high pressure ridging across Europe compared with a few days ago.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

I had previously had some thoughts that we could get a watered-down version of March 1995 with some cold zonality mixed with warm anticyclonic interludes, and a mean temperature close to average as a result, but this morning's model outputs and the NOAA update are pointing more towards a March 1989/1990 type pattern with high pressure ridging into Europe and the jet stream tracking further north.  Thus I think the signs are that we're going to get a warm March with sunshine and rainfall showing an enhanced NW-SE split and just the occasional colder blast from the NW, at least in the first half of the month.

 

 

You may be right in your interpretation of one output Ian, looking at the outputs from NOAA and ECMWF-GFS I am not so sure at the moment. More like a fairly unsettled 6-15 days off the Atlantic, although the azores ridge, shown far more solid on EC-GFS this morning may become a major feature. Yesterday this was not the case on the EC version. NOAA 6-10 and their 8-14, my interpretation anyway, is less solid to the upper ridging and more towards the unsettled Atlantic probably being more noticeable. But I do think we need another 2-3 days of consistency from these 3 before I would be certain just which will be dominant in the first 2 weeks or so of March.

[Man With Beard]

A quick glance at the NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks indicates a trend towards more high pressure ridging across Europe compared with a few days ago.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.phpI had previously had some thoughts that we could get a watered-down version of March 1995 with some cold zonality mixed with warm anticyclonic interludes, and a mean temperature close to average as a result, but this morning's model outputs and the NOAA update are pointing more towards a March 1989/1990 type pattern with high pressure ridging into Europe and the jet stream tracking further north.  Thus I think the signs are that we're going to get a warm March with sunshine and rainfall showing an enhanced NW-SE split and just the occasional colder blast from the NW, at least in the first half of the month.

Yes confidence growing in a dry, settled and very mild spell for southern parts from 7th March onwards and perhaps northern areas with time - my suggestion last night of a 20C being reached somewhere not looking quite so silly now!This is not necessarily bad news for those still hoping for a cold spell - the GFS ensembles show a lot of cold possibilities a few days later - getting a pressure build over the Uk may allow colder to filter into Europe, which may affect us later, or pressure could withdraw back into the Atlantic allowing a very fast transition to northerlies. Either way there is an opportunity to get out of the stuck pattern coming up.

[gottolovethisweather]

I don't know

 

 

I do know, well I reckon I do. As per some other subtle hints, surface pressures will likely be lower to the North and West with drier and some sort of High Pressure influence towards the South and East. The only thing I don't like for those that require some respite from all the flooding, things keep getting delayed down in my neck of the woods, perhaps it will be week two or even week three of March before the HP cell invariably takes a firm hold. The Blackbirds, Robins and Song Thrushes can possibly sense something as they're all starting to gather nesting material of late.

Edited February 28, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Ali1977]

Book a skiing holiday to get my snow fix, and it now looks like a warm spell right over that time from 8-15th .Luckily I chose a high resort!! Atleast there will be snow on the ground, as none looks like falling!!!

Maybe next year will be a cold one!!

[Tim Bland]

Early heads up - thoughts are we will see a cold second week to March with low pressure/trough action aligned NW-SE and some proper colder polar air from a northern quarter - charts continue to hint at this with the azores high moving ever further away to the west.

 

Still confident on this? Cant see many models hinting at a cold second week to march?

[Summer Sun]

Does the warm up have backing from pressure ensembles?

 

Sorry for the late reply just got in from a lovely afternoon in the garden feels very spring like today didn't even need a jumper on

 

Definite signs of a rise in pressure from the 7th

 

 

Edited February 28, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Thundery wintry showers]

My views earlier today were based on the GFS/ECMWF operational runs as well as the NOAA 8-14 day updates, for the GFS in particular has high pressure building to the E starting at around T+168:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140228/12/168/h500slp.png

The ECMWF ensemble mean is rather less convincing but still has high pressure ridging into the SE at times.

 

However the change to a more anticyclonic outlook in the south starts at around T+168- the UKMO for instance has us in changeable westerlies right out to T+144- so a continuation of changeable westerlies for the next 10-15 days remains a significant possibility.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO starting to come on board now for a rise in pressure later next week with those in the south benefiting from it first

 

 

Edited February 28, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

GFS has high pressure lasting longer this afternoon its not until t372 that things change to something colder

 

 

Certainly a trend at the moment for some milder weather to arrive in the UK later next week with highs of 17c more than possible in one or two spots and temperatures widely around 11c to 15c depending on the day you view

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks to me like we could be on the cusp of a pattern change to something much drier- which would be welcomed by all I think. As Gavin has pointed out above, the GFS is suggesting a temporary rise in temperatures later next week. I say temporary because the destination looks cold as we head towards mid March with the potential for high pressure to drain away from the east of us as the Canadian vortex weakens. The upshot of this could be a progression towards a trough to our east with resultant heights N Atlantic/S Greenland sector. This would be an antagonistic response to any weakening of the Canadian vortex and is something which I spoke about as a possibility a few weeks back.

 

I think we'll do well to dodge a wintry spell this March...how cold is impossible to speculate over and it could be a fairly brief affair. Either way, above average trending below with time would be my broad brush stroke as to how the first 14 days of March will pan out.

[The PIT]

Got to admit I have never known the models so consistently over doing the cold uppers and then remove them 48 to 24 hrs before the actual day. Happened constantly this winter and now happening in the coming spring. Looks like spring getting a firm grip on matters as the week goes on.

[Milhouse]

A very high pressure dominated GEFS mean 12z beginning in around 7 days time but still plenty of time for things to change. Some support from the ECM mean for high pressure to become more influential to the south of the UK but not as dominant as on the GEFS mean. Still showing a drying out trend though. UKMO 12Z sending in mild southwesterlies.

 

Edited February 28, 2014 by Milhouse

[Captain Shortwave]

Good start ECM

 

We might have a route out developing here.

T192

Finally a decent chance of something much drier developing.

Edited February 28, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Milhouse]

Looks like the Russian High may act as a buffer deflecting the main energy northwards away from the UK. And then potentially join forces with the Azores high to bring more of a euro-high setup with SE england favoured for the driest conditions.

 

[Summer Sun]

A much better run from ECM tonight with the big 3 all agreeing on a rise in pressure at t144

 

 

Beyond this t168 shows something more unsettled away from the far south before pressure re-builds

 

[Purga]

By Jingo!

 

A very mild outlook from ECM

 

Some colder runs at the end of the GFS ENS

 

But the main theme is mild & dry to come by the looks of it - today the daffs and crocuses were all out and giving the two's up to see the back of this useless winter.

 

Take a trip to the States if you want snow it's a mugs game looking for it here this year.

[Summer Sun]

Another run from GFS which shows a big reduction in rain for England and Wales

 

[chris55]

Warm and dry followed by cold and dry!!! lovely.