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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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reminds me of March 1995 following the wet winter then....pattern carried on relentlessly for the first part of march with no let up and produced this:

 

Posted Image

 

which delieverd the best snow of "winter" midlands north.

 

Not too disimilar to what we're seeing now, although uppers abit cooler then.

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True but could you imagine the irony if there was and it was only Summer left in here to post the charts. Please don`t speculate and keep to what the charts are saying, it is the model thread after all Posted Image Posted Image

Look, Im not speculating, Im just using the current model output with my experience of weather in the last 40 years...That all.....Posted Image

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Look, Im not speculating, Im just using the current model output with my experience of weather in the last 40 years...That all.....Posted Image

Which could be the same time frame to grasp my humour. ;-)

 

Looking at the CFS for March, uppers are still in the region for something more than rain so totally agree this winter is far from over. With the CFS being a broad pattern/outlook it certainly wouldn`t take much for the colder air from the east to settle in Scandinavia and knock on our door once the Atlantic loses some power, which must come to an end at some point?

Posted Image

Edited by StuieW
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Bonkers for snow this Friday when you post a chart valid for March 7? Is this some sort of reverse psychology?

 

dont rise to it stuie - purga has a good wind up winter as cold has never arrived, let alone deliver !

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Some 'bonkers' ideas about potential snow - zero chances with ECM showing a mild trend eventually and plenty of rain again Posted Image

 

 

Forget the cold folks it ain't gonna happen this time round it's one of those years let's face it.

Next winter may be better so let's hope for a decent Summer to cheer us all up. Posted Image

 

One never knows, we might get objective comments on the models, but maybe not!

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having not commented on the past two sets of output, it seems we are trending colder. given the thicknesses below 528 dam and uppers -4/-5c, i wouldnt be surprised to see some wintry stuff at elevation in the south of the uk. midlands northwards most definately at risk. it seems the wintriest charts of the winter are trying to just edge into feb but will probably be in march. given the lack of any cold air nearby, its a shame for coldies but probably sums up this season quite well. if the charts become any more 'wintry' in nature, we might see steve popping back !

 

Good to see someone viewing the model outputs similarly to myself. Winter coming in Spring it does seem.

 

Three days on and the general synoptics haven't changed much IMHO bar the HP failure further into the low-res part. Posted Image

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/?p=2937378

 

There is still potential for a wintry weekend for quite a swathe of the UK.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Some 'bonkers' ideas about potential snow - zero chances with ECM showing a mild trend eventually and plenty of rain again Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Forget the cold folks it ain't gonna happen this time round it's one of those years let's face it.

Next winter may be better so let's hope for a decent Summer to cheer us all up. Posted Image

 

Prolonged lying snow, NO. Transient snow, even potentially at lower levels, YES. Posted Image  All IMHO of course but nothing bonkers about it being in the discussion dear Purga. You just might not replicate scenes broadly similar to your avatar that's all. Like others have said, nothing is certain. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Friday and Saturday might become quite a troublesome forecast yet, for the professional forecasters.

 

post-7183-0-03898200-1393367568_thumb.gipost-7183-0-16672400-1393367569_thumb.gipost-7183-0-35484700-1393367570_thumb.gi

 

A right ole rain, sleet and snow mix on offer, depending on the actual synoptics at the time, but this could get interesting, certainly one to watch and the GFS did spot this feature some three or so days ago, as I alluded to in a previous post. Check out the position of the 528DAM line once again as that is crucial for determining the predicted boundaries of any colder air. I would like to see more talk about the wintry aspect on the TV forecasts before getting excited however.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Friday and Saturday might become quite a troublesome forecast yet, for the professional forecasters.

 

Posted ImageUKMO 12z Fax Chart 250214 t+60.gifPosted ImageUKMO 12z Fax Chart 250214 t+72.gifPosted ImageUKMO 12z Fax Chart 250214 t+84.gif

 

A right ole rain, sleet and snow mix on offer, depending on the actual synoptics at the time, but this could get interesting, certainly one to watch and the GFS did spot this feature some three or so days ago, as I alluded to in a previous post. Check out the position of the 528DAM line once again as that is crucial for determining the predicted boundaries of any colder air. I would like to see more talk about the wintry aspect on the TV forecasts before getting excited however.

Confirmed by the BBC forecaster after ten o'clock news....they are following that potentially troublesome feature.  My concern is the 'wet' picture that follows too....

 

BFTP

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Just how long is this pattern going to persist, it seemed there might be an end to it the other day with calmer more settled weather appearing to gently ease us into Spring. Looks like it'll be more of same well into March in reality.

 

ECM and NAEFS mean at day 10

 

Posted Image  Posted Image

 

The only real change the past few days and looking ahead is the jetstream being a bit further North with more a traditional N/W split in the unsettled weather. The Atlantic still looks like it has plenty of power left for a good while yet.

As for cold and snow about the most hopeless setup.

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GFS this morning showing a FI cold spell with a possibility of something wintry for Monday. I wouldn't get too excited as this has been the story of the winter so far only for the cold air to disappear and temps to rise as it gets closer to reliable time frame.

Closer to time Saturday maybe interesting as well. Again a peak at predicted dew points etc on Friday would be a good idea

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Morning, I'm really not surprised there is no excitement at the prospect of this potential channel low given all the let downs this winter, however this little thing might just be the consolation goal a lot of people may well enjoy albeit the wet aspect is not good.

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Well it does look like becoming colder than of late, especially by the weekend with a higher risk of frost and ice..the most unsettled weather further south with showers and longer spells of rain with perhaps some wintryness mixed in at elevation.

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Mentioned on tv there"s a possibility of more general sleet/snow moving across the south of the UK on Friday ,the met are not to sure of the track of the LP ,but the possibility is there.Posted Image

Need to watch the winds on this one too. EURO4 has mean winds at over 50 mph into SW Wales by T48, so possibly gusting 80 mph. Would be interesting if this were combined with snow.
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Mentioned on tv there"s a possibility of more general sleet/snow moving across the south of the UK on Friday ,the met are not to sure of the track of the LP ,but the possibility is there.Posted Image

It seems appropriate, unfortunately, that the last day of the meteorological winter should end with a low pressure tracking across the areas that were hit hardest this winter, flood wise. A final signature to what has been an atrocious winter.

It could push precipitation totals up so that we end with another "top 10" month.

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Morning, I'm really not surprised there is no excitement at the prospect of this potential channel low given all the let downs this winter, however this little thing might just be the consolation goal a lot of people may well enjoy albeit the wet aspect is not good.

If you mean this...

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

...maybe some sleety rain for the high ground.

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If you mean this...

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

...maybe some sleety rain for the high ground.

 

Yes, I agree.  I would have thought that this low, being a daughter low to the parent in the north, would produce minimal risk of snow to medium-low ground, because there is a general westerly flow brought about by the parent to the north.

 

If we had a HP cell to the north, then it would no doubt be a different matter.

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It is a typical set up really, no deep cold air being brought in behind it, nearer -5C and no deep cold ahead of it. On its northern flank is the risk area, wherever that turns out to be(!), and evaporative cooling may be the cause of any temporary snowfall from it for lower ground. This type needs several hours of moderate precipitation so the speed of movement of the system will be another governing factor.

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A close call for tommorow. Euro 4 (old NAE) will give us the best forecat - Maybe Ian F will pop in later and update us. Meto text forecast currently says rain "Perhaps a little snow" for most. High ground ie cotsworlds / chilterns etc could do well along with high ground in Wales 

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from Met Office at midnight

 Trend for Days 10-15
: A trend away from an increased incidence of anticyclonic outcomes continues, with an increased signal of deep lows crossing the N of the UK through the period. 
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