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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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I disagree, it interests me whether we will get decent ridging behind a diving low and a European trough. So long as the models are right about the trough dropping into Europe then there will always be a chance of height rises to the West of it. Any ridge may get toppled by the Atlantic as previously but it may not. Granted the former is the form horse and I'm I'm not that expectant but the pattern has to change some time so it is worth keeping an eye on as a window of opportunity though nothing more at this stage.

 

at this stage mucka, looks like the form horse is the favourite !  repeating patterns ........................

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Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of the NWP for today Thursday February 20th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models show a cold front crossing West to east over the UK this morning with a spell of mostly light rain quickly followed by brighter weather with squally showers becoming heavy in places and wintry over Northern hills. This pattern then lasts through tomorrow too before things dry out for Saturday as winds back SW and strengthen carrying milder air NE across the UK but with rain, heavy at times to the NW later. On Sunday a very windy and mild day seems likely with a front moving slowly SE extending the rain in the NW further SE to most areas by the end of the day, still heavy in places. The start of next week then indicates a vigorous WSW flow with further Low pressure disturbances bringing spells of rain and showers over the first days of the working week.
 
GFS then shows that from midweek the weather remains very unsettled and often windy with further spells of rain and showers as Low pressure areas continue to track in from the Atlantic.  It then shows a colder snap as a brief Northerly flow interrupts the wet and windy weather with wintry showers before after a few days it becomes unsettled and Atlantic based weather again with less cold air and rain at times to end the run.
 
UKMO closes it's run with a bank of Low pressure across the Atlantic from a position NW of Britain continuing a broad WSW flow with fronts delivering rain and showers at times in average temperatures.
 
GEM too shows an unsettled and windy period at the end of next week with it too showing a brief colder snap towards the end of it's run when wintry showers and frost at night could replace the wind and rain for a time.
 
NAVGEM keeps the WSW flow going towards the end of next week with Low pressure to the NW. Further rain at times seem likely with temperatures close to average.
 
ECM shows a vigorous Low pressure area meandering East across Southern Britain through the end of next week with much more unwanted rain as a result. It too as with other output introduces a colder North flow for a time and looks like at the end of it's run it is setting itself up for a period of colder zonality with Low pressure coming down from the NW with more rain and wintry showers in brisk winds and lower temperatures.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts shows that the colder zonality indicated by the operational is giving some credence as it too shows a Low pressure to the NW with a broad trough down over the UK to Europe with rain at times and less mild conditions overall.
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of non-descript output with average conditions overall made up from a mix of solutions none of which show anything remarkably cold or mild but some with more rain than others in an overall Atlantic patterned bias.
 
 
The Jet Stream continues to show signs of strengthening again next week as well as move a little further South once more before at the end of the run the flow drifts North in a more meaningful way with the consequences of such we await to see.
 
 
In Summary the pattern remains a very unsettled one with all models showing a good week or so of more Atlantic depressions and fronts, some rather potent with a lot of rain and strong winds for all a possibility for all. The changes indicated in previous output runs is a little muted this morning and it trends more towards a cold zonal spell of weather with chillier NW winds and showers on SE moving depressions possible from late next week. It should be noted that should this verify this will not necessarily mean drier weather across the UK but it could mean the incidence of snow on hills increases markedly, especially towards the North.
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The ECM in particular continues this theme today, several more unsettled days next week in a heavily Atlantic driven regime and the change to a cut-off low over Europe is pushed back to T240 again. Between 50mm and 60mm of rain needed by next Friday to break the February rainfall record, couldn't write it off just yet.

 

Not sure it really cuts-off now on ECM and GFS this morning, the ops and the 8-10 day H500 mean show the trough digging SE into central and southern Europe remaining intact, which brings the UK under a mean W to NW flow by beginning of March, so turning colder later next week, but not by much and remaining unsettled.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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Afternoon all :)

 

It is often said "March comes in like a lion"

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014022000/gem-0-216.png

 

Not quite so fierce

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022006/gfs-0-216.png?6?6

 

On the other hand, ROAR...

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022000/ECM1-216.GIF

 

Going forward, will this pattern go out "hot" or "cold" ?

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Strong winds and heavy rain for most next week by the looks of things

 

Posted Image

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Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose! Posted Image

 

Oh no, not again! But then again aren't the models hinting that the jet stream is going back to where is was last week and intensifying once more?

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No surprises from the 12z runs of the GFS/UKMO with the same outlook for something of a more unsettled week to come after some half decent days this week.

The showery westerly flow we have now will soon be replaced by another active frontal system moving in by the weekend bringing in yet more wind and rain.

 

The T60hrs fax for Saturday  post-2026-0-70917300-1392916013_thumb.gi

 

a large warm sector on this one with the heavier rain further north and west before the cold front finally clears through on Monday.

A quick look at some charts after that showing the cyclonic theme continuing through the following days

post-2026-0-41503000-1392916287_thumb.gipost-2026-0-97112600-1392916305_thumb.gi

 

It looks like the ens means showing the Atlantic jet re-asserting itself next week is on course with a trend to sink further low pressure down across the UK.

Any hints of an improvement beyond that are still fragile and it seems we have at least another 10 days or so of this pattern to run.

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The brief northerly from earlier is still there at the fringes of low-res for the turn of the month:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022012/gfsnh-0-216.png?12?12

 

Once again, there are hints at the very fringes of FI of rising pressure from the south but we've been here before with this as much as with any hint of anything colder.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014022012/gemnh-0-210.png

 

GEM similar with the month-end northerly. Once again, nothing stops the Atlantic though I note a very strong HP over the US East Coast at T+240 (GFS has the same and this squeezes a strong lobe of energy into the Atlantic out of E Canada).

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As far as precip is concerned, the ecm ens suite is consistent on chucking 30/35mm at london over the next fortnight. week 1 drier than week 2. Week 1 could be called changeable whilst week 2 looks unsettled. Certainly less rainfall than we have become used to. I suspect the figures further west and north will be higher.

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Good potential for some decent convective activity, but not much else. Slow moving heavy showers sums it's up. Oh and nighttime frosts.

Posted Image

Also got to laugh at the energy hoping from Siberia to Greenland, story of the winter that is.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Oh no, not again! But then again aren't the models hinting that the jet stream is going back to where is was last week and intensifying once more?

Hi allCan someone point me to where to view the bottom of the two charts above???Oopppps I think I replied to wrong post....I'm talking about the 6 hour precipitation chartThanks Edited by WINTRY WALES
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Deep FI I know but the ECM is sticking to it's guns managing to maintain some colder uppers as well at T240 while GEM thinks about the same idea but earlier introducing a northerly T210 JMA goes with GEMs idea of a northerly you can see this at T192. GFS also at the same period. Major difference between the last three is the uppers all being different. Too far away to get excited about but a possible trend maybe forming.

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Good evening everyone. Here is today's evening report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday February 20th 2014.
 
All models show that the UK lies under a showery Westerly flow in association with Low pressure to the North. This lasts through until Saturday when winds back SW and increase, bringing milder air across the UK. Heavy rain from advancing fronts will reach the NW later on Saturday with the strong winds increasing further across England and Wales on Sunday as the band of rain in the NW sinks SE across many areas by the end of the day. On Monday the weather will remain very unsettled according to most models with further windy and showery conditions likely and possibly some longer spells of rain too..
 
GFS then shows next week as wet and windy as further Low pressure crosses West to East over the UK with unwelcome heavy rain for many with showers in between and only short brighter intervals. In the lower resolution half of the run there is more unsettled weather to be endured but with a trend to drier conditions later as High pressure builds up close to Southern Britain later, possibly bringing rather mild weather too.
 
UKMO also shows an unsettled beginning to next week as one Low crosses the UK on Tuesday, exiting East on Wednesday with the likelihood of further troughs later in the week to bring at least some more rain late in the week too.
 
GEM shows Low pressure in control too through much of next week. In the first half mild SW winds will accompany the spells of rain but later as Low pressure moves out to the East of the UK there could be a period of colder weather with wintry showers in places on a Northerly breeze.
 
NAVGEM remains very unsettled looking next week with the close of it's run indicating Westerly winds continuing well into the end of next week with rain at times in a fresh and blustery west or SW wind and generally near average temperatures.
 
ECM tonight shows unsettled weather too with Low pressure giving rise to more appreciable rain at times and showers at other. As the axis of Low pressure shifts towards the east of the UK colder air will seep down across the UK in a NW flow with showers turning wintry later with snow over the hills for a time.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts suggest a period of cold zonality with Low pressure to the NW extending a trough SE across Britain and down over Europe. With winds in the West and NW with rain at times and temperatures close o average or a little below.
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles show uppers very close to the long term mean throughout tonight's output with a wide spread between the members of the pack towards the end of the run. Rainfall amounts are shown to be somewhat less than of late in the SE but remains a popular commodity throughout the run but with drier prospects shown for all at times through the run.
 
 
The Jet Stream remains fairly strong throughout the period spawning more Low pressure areas crossing over or near the UK. Late in the run the shift of the flow NE over Northern Britain could bring some drier conditions to the South and SE later.
 
 
In Summary it is in all senses of the word a re-run of this morning's output with any improvements shown restricted way out in the unreliable time spans of the model runs and that looking very tentative and speculative. In the meantime there will be plenty more wind and rain for us all to endure in temperatures close to average overall and winds quite strong at times without ever being especially so.
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Way out in FI so to be taken with a pinch of salt still but the GFS ensemble shows something more settled developing as we move into early March

 

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Do you ever get fed up with posting on here???!!!!

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GFS ensemble for London and Manchester showing a lot of scatter on the 850's from March 3rd a positive to take is the lowering amounts of rainfall on the London ensemble

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

All options for temperatures from March 3rd remain open given the amount of scatter shown up-to then temperatures will never be far away from average

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But we've been here before. For nearly a month, there have been "signs in FI" of pressure rising from the south and things drying up without it coming to pass in low-res.

 

Last March, some will remember day after day charts being posted suggesting temperatures returning to normal but they never did so sometimes FI ensembles are not to be relied on either.

 

The models are trying to find ways out of the pattern and that seems to involve stopping the train and seeing if pressure will rise from either north or south but neither scenario is convincing or credible at this time.

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But we've been here before. For nearly a month, there have been "signs in FI" of pressure rising from the south and things drying up without it coming to pass in low-res.

 

Last March, some will remember day after day charts being posted suggesting temperatures returning to normal but they never did so sometimes FI ensembles are not to be relied on either.

 

The models are trying to find ways out of the pattern and that seems to involve stopping the train and seeing if pressure will rise from either north or south but neither scenario is convincing or credible at this time.

I think we are looking at a rinse and repeat for the next week or two then perhaps a pattern change later in MarchPosted Image

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