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Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards


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Good morning folks. Here is today's morning look at the midnight outputs of the NWP as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models continue to show a well worn path of unsettled weather this morning. The next 5 days will see some of the best weather today and tomorrow as a slack Westerly flow delivers just scattered showers which some places may miss and stay dry although some of the rain my be heavy with hail and thunder locally. It will be quite mild away from Northern Scotland where yesterday's trough lingers with occasional rain and mountain snow. Later tomorrow and more especially on Thursday winds are shown by all models to increase and back SW with heavy rain sweeping East across the British Isles followed by showers in the West later. Then through Thursday and Friday a broad and strong Westerly flow will carry frequent and heavy showers across the UK, heavy and thundery in places and wintry over Northern hills. Over Saturday we will find winds decrease but showers continue with Sunday being the best day of the weekend as a weak and transient ridge crosses the UK before the next spell of wind and rain looks like returning early next week.
 
GFS then shows next week as very unsettled, often mild and windy and wet at times but with a few drier spells in the SE and colder showery conditions at times later in a strong and colder Westerly wind.
 
UKMO starts next week with Low pressure to the North of Scotland with Monday looking a mild and windy day with some rain at times, heaviest towards the North and West.
 
GEM shows continuing unsettled weather next week and potentially stormy weather by the end of the run as repeated areas of Low pressure pummel the UK from off the Atlantic in relatively average temperatures for late February.
 
NAVGEM too starts next week windy with rain in the North and West extending further SE with time in a strong and relatively mild SW flow.
 
ECM this morning is equally unsettled with a potential nasty Low pressure system next Tuesday bringing gales and heavy rain before Low pressure disrupts over the UK late in the run with lighter but colder winds still bringing outbreaks of rain almost anywhere across the UK with the chance of snow over Northern hills.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts indicate that the ECM Ensemble pack suggest the UK will lie under low pressure somewhere near northern Scotland with a high risk of a trough down across the UK bringing further unsettled weather with rain or showers in continuing West and possibly NW winds later.
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles show little change this morning with average temperatures likely to be sustained with Westerly winds and rain at times for all areas. the North does trend slightly lower temperatures from incursions of polar maritime air at times but these remain largely insignificant. No generally dry, settled or cold conditions are shown again this morning.
 
 
The Jet Stream still shows the flow of winds getting lighter across the Atlantic over the coming days before there is every sign of the flow increasing again later in more or less the same position as of present.
 
 
In Summary the weather remains far from settled with another two weeks at least of unsettled weather to come and no doubt some of the rain that falls as well as generally unwelcome and disruptive again in the flooded areas. Low pressure out to the NW continues to be the driving force and while severe gales and damaging winds aren't expected there is potential for some strong winds to give local problems at times. Temperatures will remain close to average with little significant frost over the period and very little snow away from Northern hills.
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The posters that called for a pattern change (most of which are long term members with lots of experiance) were correct at the time of posting, when these signals where shown in the models, thats why other members liked there post.It is the Model Output Discussion after-all... They were not forecasts !

agree and i still maintain the stance that a change is afoot although very slow the gradual decrease in the polar vortex will be slow but it will happen,i still favour a cooler spring with prospects of short sharp shocks much like spring 2008.

 

but on the flip side we are dealing with european block once again possibly leading to a scandi block but average with mild sw and cooler nw as depressions move through the uk thats if they make it far enough east although the stormiest spell looks likely to be over there is a possibility of more rainfall for awhile yet.

 

looking forward to next winter though this winter has been exceptional and i dont expect next winter to be anything like this winter.

but until then the models are toying with many ideas, but i still punt for a cooler colder spring eventually. 

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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Continued theme from model runs this morning for the N Altantic jet to fire up again early next week, as another intensely deep cold pool sinks south into northern Canada. So we could be faced by another barrage of deep lows. But could it be a temporary return to stronger winds and heavier rain? As 06z GFS op and a fair few of the GEFS members are hinting at more amplitude developing in the flow over the N Altantic sector by day 10:

 

post-1052-0-44962300-1392728288_thumb.pn

 

I guess it will depend on how far south the chunk of the PV drops over Canada and USA. 06z GFS has more depth south with the cold pool and hence amplifies the flow more upstream and eventually downstream. 00z ECM prefers to keep the intense cold pool a little further north and east and hence a flatter and stronger flow for longer downstream towards the UK.

Edited by Nick F
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Can we keep it to the models please, the bickering and point scoring is very tedious.

 

I asked this earlier and since then a decent number of the posts have been off topic. Can those using this thread can actually use it to discuss the model output please, there are lots of places to post non model stuff on the forums.

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Further to Paul's post a number of off topic contributions have been moved to the moans/ramp thread in order to keep this thread clear for  model outputs discussions only-as you would expect.

 

The continuing pattern may be repetitive and frustrating for many of us but please post any moans or banter to the other threads please all.

 

Thanks.

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Interesting ECM +240 , although im not quite sure how it manages that going by the rest of the run ,  

 

Posted Image

 

That would be the the last day of winter (cough). An Easterly appearing at day 10 on the ECM with uppers above freezing. A final kick in the balls for all us coldies!

 

Roll on Winter 2014/15!!!

Edited by SE Blizzards
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That would be the the last day of winter (cough). An Easterly appearing at day 10 on the ECM with uppers above freezing. A final kick in the balls for all us coldies!

 

Roll on Winter 2014/15!!!

 

Yes and it wouldn't sustain anyway. just look at the strength of the PV again , until that calms down were not going to get anywhere from a Coldies point of view. 

Edited by snowmadchrisuk
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Posted · Hidden by Gael_Force, February 18, 2014 - wrong quote
Hidden by Gael_Force, February 18, 2014 - wrong quote

Further to Paul's post a number of off topic contributions have been moved to the moans/ramp thread in order to keep this thread clear for  model outputs discussions only-as you would expect.

 

The continuing pattern may be repetitive and frustrating for many of us but please post any moans or banter to the other threads please all.

 

Thanks.

 

It is a bit of an odd evolution but would tie in with some of the longer range modelling which wants to place a very cool anomaly and an excess of rainfall over the Iberian area.

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There are certainly hints right across the output that the models are toying with an end of Feb/early March pattern change something much more amplified and potentially blocked with low pressure diving South into the continent.

I imagine most coldies are too weary and cynical to even raise an eyebrow for now though.

Personally I'll just keep a watching brief to see if the signal grows and perhaps more importantly starts to move forward rather than staying way out in FI.

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Interesting ECM +240 , although im not quite sure how it manages that going by the rest of the run ,  

 

 

 

It is a bit of an odd evolution but would tie in with some of the longer range modelling which wants to place a very cool anomaly and an excess of rainfall over the Iberian area.

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It is a bit of an odd evolution but would tie in with some of the longer range modelling which wants to place a very cool anomaly and an excess of rainfall over the Iberian area.

Which longer range models? I Haven't seen anything that resembles the ECM at day 10
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More of the same then showing on the 12z runs with a parent area of low pressure never far from the north west of the Uk driving the west/south westerly flow through the next week or so.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

 

Rain or showers on most days but not to the extent of last week by the looks with the frontal systems coming through somewhat less active and with longer intervals likely between them.

Still not great but just a small improvement from the recent very stormy spell.

 

The jet profile looks less threatening going forward although with still enough energy to maintain the unsettled theme.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn7214.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12014.gif

 

temperatures never far from normal maybe on the rather cold side in the stiff westerly winds behind the cold fronts.

 

Looking further on towards week 2 the GEFs continue with this same theme of low pressure just to our north/north/west and the Azores high at home.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m10.gif

 

a pretty flat looking pattern keeping any ridging to a minimum.That Canadian vortex stubbornly modeled right through the frames.

It does look like we are heading for a very uninspiring end to an exceptionally Atlantic driven Winter.

Edited by phil nw.
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Which longer range models? I Haven't seen anything that resembles the ECM at day 10

 

Which longer range models? I Haven't seen anything that resembles the ECM at day 10

 

I'm talking about the monthly outlook - . JMA, BCC and CFS are all showing cool and wet south of here.

eg.

 

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/md/TC2014024/TC2014024GL_T2D3_1.GIF

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8634/cfs-6-3-2014_zau3.png

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/md/MD2014024/MD2014024GL_RPD3_1.GIF

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Have noticed CFS keeps trying to give us the Coldest Spring on record , Be something to keep an eye on as it keeps coming up with it over and over again , with plenty of -10 850's about even mid April .

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More of the same then showing on the 12z runs with a parent area of low pressure never far from the north west of the Uk driving the west/south westerly flow through the next week or so.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

 

Rain or showers on most days but not to the extent of last week by the looks with the frontal systems coming through somewhat less active and with longer intervals likely between them.

Still not great but just a small improvement from the recent very stormy spell.

 

The jet profile looks less threatening going forward although with still enough energy to maintain the unsettled theme.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn7214.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12014.gif

 

temperatures never far from normal maybe on the rather cold side in the stiff westerly winds behind the cold fronts.

 

Looking further on towards week 2 the GEFs continue with this same theme of low pressure just to our north/north/west and the Azores high at home.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m10.gif

 

a pretty flat looking pattern keeping any ridging to a minimum.That Canadian vortex stubbornly modeled right through the frames.

It does look like we are heading for a very uninspiring end to an exceptionally Atlantic driven Winter.

It does look that way Phil. Oh well, roll on last winter.

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gefs and ecm ens seem to be in broad agreement that the developing heights to our east will deflect the mean trough across the uk and into w europe. that is a repeat pattern from january. at that time we wondered if  we could back the trough far enough west to give a continental undercut ahead of any precip. at the backend of feb and into march, there is nothing to interest us aprt from wondering how much rainfall this pattern will generate.

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gefs and ecm ens seem to be in broad agreement that the developing heights to our east will deflect the mean trough across the uk and into w europe. that is a repeat pattern from january. at that time we wondered if  we could back the trough far enough west to give a continental undercut ahead of any precip. at the backend of feb and into march, there is nothing to interest us aprt from wondering how much rainfall this pattern will generate.

 

I disagree, it interests me whether we will get decent ridging behind a diving low and a European trough. So long as the models are right about the trough dropping into Europe then there will always be a chance of height rises to the West of it. Any ridge may get toppled by the Atlantic as previously but it may not. Granted the former is the form horse and I'm I'm not that expectant but the pattern has to change some time so it is worth keeping an eye on as a window of opportunity though nothing more at this stage.

Edited by Mucka
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