Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards

[johnholmes]

The best guidance as usual is probably going to be with the upper air pattern showing on the anomaly charts, not that they are consistent really, well ECMWF is with NOAA 6-10 but GFS is not, although it had been. Anyway no 'plume' seems likely but rather a coldish outlook 6-10 days time and possibly a bit longer?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[Tim Bland]

I imagine this forum would be a bit more alive if that ECM (240hrs) was showing in January. Personaly I'm done with winter now and would rather have some decent spring warmth rather than chase some sleet.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

[stodge]

Morning all

 

A rare opportunity for me to peruse the morning Operational output as I wait for the man to come and fix the boiler - yes, it REALLY was a cold start in lowland East London this morning.

 

Anyway, similarities initially as might be expected in the evolution of the E'ly - LP diving south into Europe and pressure rising strongly to the NE and later North. An interesting little feature coming west across the North Sea offers a wet midweek for the south before the HP takes over and settles things for the end of the week but whither thereafter ?

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014032400/gem-0-144.png?00

 

GEM Operational at T+144 - an evolution some of the pressure anomaly charts have suggested for some time with the trough to the SW - as the core of the HP migrates to Greenland, the trough spreads NE and eventually the British Isles is in a very unsettled and wet situation.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014032400/gfs-0-144.png?0

 

GFS Operational at the same time and the trough is further north and differently aligned and not a cut-off feature and, as might be suggested, it's a more mobile scenario albeit with the jet tracking a long way south. That becomes more evident into FI with a progressively more unsettled scenario developing.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032400/ECM1-144.GIF?24-12

 

ECM at T+144 - much closer to GEM than GFS. Also suggests strong northern blocking and a S'ly tracking jet.

 

An initial period of settled conditions looks like giving away just after the turn of the month to something more unsettled especially for the south.

[Yarmy]

More extensive Northern blocking on the GFS 06z:

 

 

Such a waste at this time of year, but not unusual as the PV weakens at last. Who was it on here (Summer Blizzards?) who projected the end of March before the PV would finally relent based on the Westerly QBO, etc?

 

Roll on, Spring/Summer.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z continues to show temperatures recovering from Saturday especially the further east you are could be close to 20c on Sunday in one or two spots

 

Edited March 24, 2014 by Summer Sun

[legritter]

Afternoon all posters ,Three weeks without a Computer ,its been hard but been looking at bbc charts ,computer now repaired .Its nice to be back and catching up with weather charts ,oh to have had some of these charts back in our winter .i will catch you all up later cheers .

[Summer Sun]

UKMO showing +4 850's moving into southern England on Sunday could be looking at temperatures in the mid to high teens in some southern and eastern parts

 

[vladthemert]

GFS 06z continues to show temperatures recovering from Saturday especially the further east you are could be close to 20c on Sunday in one or two spots

 

 

 

Crikey like going from fridge to the frying pan here is that 19c for here summer sun.  invasion sunday to get sun tan look of it.  One downside living in the coast its murder driving here when invaded.

[Summer Sun]

Crikey like going from fridge to the frying pan here is that 19c for here summer sun.  invasion sunday to get sun tan look of it.  One downside living in the coast its murder driving here when invaded.

 

I think the coast will be cooler the highest temperatures could be found in places like Cambridge those exposed to the coast will still notice a chill in the wind given it would still be late March / early April but once your inland and sheltered temperatures should respond especially in any sunshine

 

12z showing a similar trend to warmer temperatures from Saturday looking at the mid to high teens as a peak though I wouldn't rule-out somewhere getting very close to 20c all would come down to cloud amounts if we saw some lengthy clear periods towards the south in shelter 20c could be hit but in general I'd say a range of 12c to 17c

 

Edited March 24, 2014 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

Just had a quick glance at the ECMWF six to ten days 500mb average mean anomaly chart. A strong positive anomaly to the NW of Britain with negative anomalies to the east and SW.The 850mb temp anomaly for same period is plus 3C in south and zero in Scotland. Leading on the 3rd of April to a split with 850 temps in the south plus 3C and -2C in Scotland,

 

Translated giving temps not far from average but a tad warmer in the south.

[Summer Sun]

All models now starting to agree on a return to warmer air just in time for the weekend and of course British summer time on Sunday

 

GEM is the latest to come on board

 

 

GFS 12z ensembles continue to show the 850's going above average from the 28th after which they never drop below average which takes us to  April 9th

 

 

Very little change in the air pressure as well from the 28th

 

Edited March 24, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

ECM showing +5 850's into the south on Sunday with +6's just clipping the Kent coast with the change beginning on Saturday though Scotland holds onto the colder air

 

[mpkio2]

Hello again.

 

Almost all models going for some sort of HLB to our North which will occur around Wednesday. GFS and ECM continue to show some impressive Northern Blocking which bringon a fiull easterly at t96:

 

It looks great and would be great.....in Winter! I mean, I'm more angry and upset than relieved to see these charts (Charts I've been wanting to see for months!). I just can;t help but think "If only these showed up in January..." 

 

What wasted potential this is!!!!

 

I know I'm moaning, but if these types of charts showed themselves during any moth in Winter 13/14, and actualy came to frutition, I would be a lot more excited. However, it may be my pessimissim speaking, due to the hollw Winter13/14, but I just wish it wouldnlt happen at all. All that these charts will achieve is wet weather and highs of 8c at day (In London that is).

 

Like many, I'd rather just have warm weather now. Winter had its chance and it blew it! It can;t just turn around and say "Hello!" in Sprintime, no matter how common it may be. Yes we had a cold March last year, but doesn;t nessarcerily mean we will have the same weather this year. I usually love cold/snowy weather, but now when it shows its ugly face when we've all been deprived, suffering and led up the garden path multiple times due to the models.

 

Anyway, thats all I have to say on the matter.

 

~mpkio2~

 

P.S. Mods please move post if needed.

[Summer Sun]

Some colder air still showing to the north at day 9 but the south holds onto the milder temps

 

Edited March 24, 2014 by Summer Sun

[phil nw.]

Well finally after waiting all Winter for one we have the prospect of an Easterly for the next few days.

Nothing really Wintery in the outlook though but temperatures will be depressed with an upper cold pool in situ over the UK for a while.

 

 

The advancing Atlantic trough grinding to a halt over the country tomorrow as pressure rises over Scandinavia.

The rain band gradually weakening and moving back west again as it dies away.

It looks like the rest of the week will then feel rather cold with the wind off the North sea bringing patchy rain or showers to eastern and central districts.

A fairly typical development for early Spring as the Polar Vortex starts to diminish allowing high pressure to develop in more northern latitudes.

[vladthemert]

thanks summer sun.  mpkio2 dont cry it will snow at easter  

[Summer Sun]

Another easterly source at day 10 from ECM

 

[Cloud 10]

Maybe the ECM can tempt Steve Murr out of hibernation?

 

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

The gfs and ecm are at two different opinions at the 10 day range.....ecm goes for a colder outlook, the gfs for something milder,......  

[Summer Sun]

The gfs and ecm are at two different opinions at the 10 day range.....ecm goes for a colder outlook, the gfs for something milder,......  

 

Same-thing happened last night two completely different options at d10

 

The milder / warmer GFS

 

 

The colder ECM

 

 

GEM is the only other model which goes to day 10 I think and it also goes for the milder / warmer option

 

 

So for now its 2 -1 in favor of warmer conditions at day 10 but that of course doesn't mean ECM is wrong

Edited March 24, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Frank Trough]

Same-thing happened last night two completely different options at d10

 

The milder / warmer GFS

 

 

The colder ECM

 

 

GEM is the only other model which goes to day 10 I think and it also goes for the milder / warmer option

 

 

So for now its 2 -1 in favor of warmer conditions at day 10 but that of course doesn't mean ECM is wrong

 

i think the ECM is due a victory after the winter it's had.

 

The reality is that neither will be correct at day 10 at face value. But for me i'm going to side with the ECM and it's colder evolution, however it pans out. Plenty of GFS ensembles going cold later:

 

 

 

in the nearer timeframe, good agreement on some warmer uppers moving in over the weekend and early next week. Cloudy but milder.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble has -2 850's coming in at day compared to the Op run which has -6's and -7 just clipping NE Scotland, ECM is certainly keener on cooler weather to arrive into early April unlike GFS and GEM

 

 

ECM Op run

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Can't even find a word to describe how much its getting under my skin that we are seeing a Poland bred low that back in January would've brought an absolute snowfest countrywide ! 

Back to the models, and yeah, really is kind of a knife edge as to whether we see really warm weather with a SE component to the continental wind, or with a chilly NE component. Interesting I must say.

Edited March 24, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[snowking]

Certainly a wide divergence in solutions at day 10. Of course that's not necessarily uncommon but such a wide divergence between ensemble means at that range as we have at present:

 

ECM:

 

GFS:

 

With the ECM's mean Easterly solution vs the GFS's mean South-Westerly, which is usually a sign that something high-pressured will be taking place somewhere to our North.

 

I think it's worth remembering just how poorly the ECMWF has dealt with Northern blocking at the 10 day range (or for that matter the 6 day range at times this winter!) during the last 18 months or so - yes that does stretch back to winter 2012/13 with the failed December beast from the East. Whilst global verification statistics sometimes prove useful and have shown consistently for many years now the ECMWF to outperform the GFS it is always worth bearing in mind shorter-term regional trends (for example I have colleagues in New Zealand who swear by using the GFS because it outperforms all others). I suspect the overall ECMWF picture has been caused by the exceptionally higher resolution vs the competition - something which will of course be levelled somewhat before the end of this year with the GFS upgrade (as well as an upgrade the initialisation methodology based upon consultation with the folks at the ECMWF). This point I am making here though in a very long-winded way is be wary of pressure rises shown at this range to the North-West of the UK by the ECMWF - it has consistently over-egged heights and SLP in the GIN corridor, particularly on the Western periphery, for these last 18 months. Even during the cold spells of January and March 2013 there were consistent (consistently wrong!) signals for pressure to rise significantly around the Greenland locale. In reality we ended up with a much weaker pressure rise than modelled but still ended up with a good result courtesy of a Steve Murr sausage special.

 

Of course when you see divergence from ensemble suites like this:

 

 

With a number of colder solutions there's always hope for a little flurry of something colder and indeed there was a cluster of solutions on the 0z ECM EPS suite heading for something colder towards the day 10-15 range, but ultimately we have been lead down this path a number of times now and without the full backing of other suites it becomes a little difficult to believe.

 

Can I end on something more positive for collides? Well there is certainly an impressive amount of cold bottling itself up to the North-East of the UK, so if we can get a bit of luck with the pattern - always possible with an increasing stratospheric thermal profile and therefore a higher chance of higher pressure at more Northerly latitudes than during the winter itself - the depth of cold is certainly there to throw up a few surprises. It just needs something to advect it.

 

For now I remain rather dubious of ECMWF day 10 outputs and am looking forward to the upgrade cycles of the next couple of years...could it be that through the second half of this decade we finally have two suites that give us some reliable insight behind day 4-5? An exciting prospect!

 

Regards to all,

SK

[snowmadchrisuk]

Ww have had more than 1 failed easterly this season from all models