E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Don]

7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Lovely December CFS anomaly at present from a hemispheric perspective

Very nice on the eye after some of the recent horror runs from the GFS!

[Scott Ingham]

14 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Lovely December CFS anomaly at present from a hemispheric perspective

Looks good for ssw precursors if high pressure sets up as in shown on the anomolies! Think pre march 2018.... but in december. 

Another thing. Such high latitide blocking on a december CFS anomaly is highly unusual for a month that traditionally is much more low pressure orientated

Go on the arctic sea ice forum and look at where the early open water is by the way and its an unreal match up for the anomolies.

Edited July 3, 2022 by Scott Ingham

[summer blizzard]

Can't post the images as I am on my phone but the Euro 45 day apparently has one of the strongest trade wind bursts for July on record persisting.

In addition it only started about a week ago but it's already generated a -1 area. We could be about to see a month of sub-surface collapse if things proceed as forecast.

[summer blizzard]

29JUN2022: Nino3: -0.5 , Nino3.4: -0.6 , Nino4: -0.7

June ONI weakened to -0.68.

AMJ ONI confirmed as -1.0. 

..

Trades are back roaring again as mentioned.

And here is our starting point at the sub-surface so that we can observe the titanic sub-surface (+ENSO) vs atmosphere (Nina on steroids for SOI and MEI) battle and its impact.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 03/07/2022 at 12:07, Don said:

Very nice on the eye after some of the recent horror runs from the GFS!

Interestingly the EC seasonal for November-January broadly agrees with a blocked N hemispheric winter pattern!

Extremely encouraging to have the two big hitters of the EC and CFS on board this early. Room for improvements for sure (I'd like to see a LP signature across Europe) but for now it's a solid start.

Edited July 6, 2022 by CreweCold

[Don]

6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Interestingly the EC seasonal for November-January broadly agrees with a blocked N hemispheric winter pattern!

Extremely encouraging to have the two big hitters of the EC and CFS on board this early. Room for improvements for sure (I'd like to see a LP signature across Europe) but for now it's a solid start.

Yes, very nice to see!  Not sure what GLOSEA5 is showing for that period but would be great to have that on board too.

[joggs]

Watch this be one of the coldest winters for years coinciding with the extortionate gas/ electric prices........

Edited July 6, 2022 by joggs

[Cheshire Freeze]

13 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, very nice to see!  Not sure what GLOSEA5 is showing for that period but would be great to have that on board too.

GLOSEA updates in a few days’ time

[summer blizzard]

June MEI came in at -1.9!

The past week has seen good progressive in weakening the sub surface warm pool, it has split it into east and west on the chart.

[Don]

On 06/07/2022 at 23:00, CreweCold said:

GLOSEA updates in a few days’ time

Latest GLOSEA update doesn't agree with EC seasonal for the October to December period unfortunately, but very early days.

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 12/07/2022 at 00:09, Don said:

Latest GLOSEA update doesn't agree with EC seasonal for the October to December period unfortunately, but very early days.

 

 

Plenty of time for that to come in line...next month's update will give us a better idea.

CFS still potentially cold for December with a mid Atlantic HP and a Scandi/UK trough

January has come into view now too...hints of higher than average heights at the pole?

[Don]

18 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Plenty of time for that to come in line...next month's update will give us a better idea.

CFS still potentially cold for December with a mid Atlantic HP and a Scandi/UK trough

January has come into view now too...hints of higher than average heights at the pole?

December looks ok with cold and milder spells alternating perhaps?

Although January has higher pressure over the pole, it also has a bit of a Billy Bartlett, too! 

[summer blizzard]

It's taken only about two weeks but the trades over the Pacific have torn apart the attempted Nino and are going to start feeding the surface. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 03/07/2022 at 12:07, Don said:

Very nice on the eye after some of the recent horror runs from the GFS!

The December anomalies get better and better, not perfect but the amount of higher than average heights at the N latitudes is eye opening.

November looking cold too

I noticed that Gav Partridge has run his analogue based model for winter and it's showing the same thing- N blocking aplenty with a cold December and January especially. Sets the scene for more potentially dry weather when we'd usually get rainfall. I wonder if next summer could see a bad drought or whether it's one of those where it doesn't stop raining ala 2007 or 2012.

Edited July 20, 2022 by CreweCold

[Don]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

The December anomalies get better and better, not perfect but the amount of higher than average heights at the N latitudes is eye opening.

November looking cold too

I noticed that Gav Partridge has run his analogue based model for winter and it's showing the same thing- N blocking aplenty with a cold December and January especially. Sets the scene for more potentially dry weather when we'd usually get rainfall. I wonder if next summer could see a bad drought or whether it's one of those where it doesn't stop raining ala 2007 or 2012.

Lets hope those anomalies continue to gain traction and support from other models!  Regarding dryness and next summer, surely the dry spell will have to end sometime, even in our wacky current climate?! 

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Lets hope those anomalies continue to gain traction and support from other models!  Regarding dryness and next summer, surely the dry spell will have to end sometime, even in our wacky current climate?! 

Dry spells can last up to 2 years such as Nov 04-Aug 06.

[MP-R]

There will also be wet months in long dry periods like Oct/Nov 05 and March & May 06.

[summer blizzard]

Sub-surface cold pool is now down to -3. Geronimo!

[SqueakheartLW]

On 21/07/2022 at 20:12, summer blizzard said:

Sub-surface cold pool is now down to -3. Geronimo!

A 3rd year La Nina looking more and more likely and looking back through the ENSO records La Nina's and colder ENSO Neutral periods can stretch for years at a time so just because we may get a 3rd year Nina doesn't mean we won't get a 4th or even 5th.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Nino12/

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Nino3/

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Nino34/

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Nino4/

Years of long lasting La Nina / ENSO Neutral Colder conditions for N Hemisphere winters (3 years or more) between 1870 and now

1870/1871 - 1875/1876      6 years

1906/1907 - 1910/1911      5 years

1891/1892 - 1894/1895      4 years

1920/1921 - 1922/1923      3 years

1932/1933 - 1934/1935      3 years

1954/1955 - 1956/1957      3 years

1973/1974 - 1975/1976      3 years

1983/1984 - 1985/1986      3 years

1998/1999 - 2000/2001      3 years

2020/2021 - (2022/2023)    ???????? Maybe

[summer blizzard]

06JUL2022: Nino3: -0.4 , Nino3.4: -0.5 , Nino4: -0.8

13JUL2022: Nino3: -0.3 , Nino3.4: -0.6 , Nino4: -1.0

As per the sub-surface update previously we should see the eastern warm anomolies disintergrate as they look to be doing allowing the new sub-surface cold pool to dominate across the basin. 

Trades continue to be forecast at strength.

[Don]

12 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

06JUL2022: Nino3: -0.4 , Nino3.4: -0.5 , Nino4: -0.8

13JUL2022: Nino3: -0.3 , Nino3.4: -0.6 , Nino4: -1.0

As per the sub-surface update previously we should see the eastern warm anomolies disintergrate as they look to be doing allowing the new sub-surface cold pool to dominate across the basin. 

Trades continue to be forecast at strength.

Just hope we don't get too strong a La Nina for winter?!

[damianslaw]

18 minutes ago, Don said:

Just hope we don't get too strong a La Nina for winter?!

By this I think you mean strong la nina reduces chances of snow and cold..

We've been dealt a terrible hand in recent winter's on that front.. only 2 out of the last 9 17-18 and 20-21 I would describe as even just average.. 10 years since we had anything resembling a proper winter 12-13 and that contained a very mild 4 week period mid Dec to mid Jan. 

 

Edited July 26, 2022 by damianslaw

[cheeky_monkey]

19 hours ago, Don said:

Just hope we don't get too strong a La Nina for winter?!

not often you get back to back to back La Ninas so will be interesting to see how things pan out

[Don]

On 26/07/2022 at 23:15, damianslaw said:

By this I think you mean strong la nina reduces chances of snow and cold..

We've been dealt a terrible hand in recent winter's on that front.. only 2 out of the last 9 17-18 and 20-21 I would describe as even just average.. 10 years since we had anything resembling a proper winter 12-13 and that contained a very mild 4 week period mid Dec to mid Jan. 

 

Yes, you are indeed correct, as strong La Nina would not be good.

I agree, 2017/18 and 2020/21 were only good by the standards since 2014.  Compared to the last 50-100 years, they would be nothing special at all!

On 27/07/2022 at 18:20, cheeky_monkey said:

not often you get back to back to back La Ninas so will be interesting to see how things pan out

Don't know, I think it has happened fairly frequently but someone else would be able to answer this better than me.

[Derecho]

Last looked at ENSO in mid June and thought we were heading for neutral into winter....

Fair to say looking at these plots that the situation may change substantially now...

Edited July 29, 2022 by Quicksilver1989