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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    02JUN2021 - Niño 3: -0.2, Niño 3.4: -0.2, Niño 4: -0.2

    March-April-May ONI was -0.7.

    May ONI was -0.3.

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    See http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z Huge uncertainty however, re scope of any teleconnection for UK winter 16-17 (models still yet to confidently resolve re ENSO neutra

    Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

    The reasons why these three key strong El Nino years, 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98 differed so much in their atmospheric responses is very interesting.   Purely on ocean surface / subsurface data, a

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Hard to say where we go at least at scale but it looks like we may be getting a new upwelling trying to develop.

    image.thumb.gif.0e8e1a0413e13ba66787564fb0551f69.gif
     

    image.thumb.gif.edac3bdfed1206df8230c1b6978068c2.gif

    That blue patch is a development in the past week or two being fed from the deep to the west at depth.

    image.thumb.gif.a0f15546d37e877c1fc4ad24b5fa772f.gif
     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    Hard to say where we go at least at scale but it looks like we may be getting a new upwelling trying to develop.

    image.thumb.gif.0e8e1a0413e13ba66787564fb0551f69.gif
     

    image.thumb.gif.edac3bdfed1206df8230c1b6978068c2.gif

    That blue patch is a development in the past week or two being fed from the deep to the west at depth.

    image.thumb.gif.a0f15546d37e877c1fc4ad24b5fa772f.gif
     

     

    Please explain what this means?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    02JUN2021 - Niño 3: 0.0, Niño 3.4: 0.0, Niño 4: 0.0

    This month is likely as warm as it gets, sub-surface is about to go net negative again.

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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)

    Big drop in regions 3.4 and 4 in the last week! The SSTs anomaly went from 0.0 to -0.5c

    What caused such a sudden drop? It goes against the models forecasts for June.

    Edited by karyo
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    16JUN2021 - Niño 3: 0.5, Niño 3.4: 0.5, Niño 4: 0.2

    On 22/06/2021 at 11:54, karyo said:

    Big drop in regions 3.4 and 4 in the last week! The SSTs anomaly went from 0.0 to -0.5c

    What caused such a sudden drop? It goes against the models forecasts for June.

    Can't take much from weekly changes but we have seen trades strengthen in relative terms to the westerlies since about the 9th.

    image.thumb.png.ce7bfffdf130261e1fc18c3d5738f08c.png

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    23JUN2021 - Niño 3: 0.0, Niño 3.4: 0.0, Niño 4: 0.0

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Any thoughts on Winter SB?

    Neutral or weak either way  .?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    Any thoughts on Winter SB?

    Neutral or weak either way  .?

    Sub surface has a messy neutral pattern to it but on the 90 day chart you can see a weak Niña standing wave is still present which will probably generate a slide back to Niña as time goes on since the sub-surface has headed a bit backward.

    image.thumb.gif.e9a61545b81a309d8d045f86b5554cae.gif

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    Any thoughts on Winter SB?

    Neutral or weak either way  .?

    It will be weak either side IMO. Perhaps weak Nina being more likely. 
     

    Big winter coming up I feel. I have an early hunch we’ll see a weaker than normal trop PV with predominant Atlantic ridging (at times ridging up to Greenland). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    On 01/07/2021 at 16:15, CreweCold said:

    It will be weak either side IMO. Perhaps weak Nina being more likely. 
     

    Big winter coming up I feel. I have an early hunch we’ll see a weaker than normal trop PV with predominant Atlantic ridging (at times ridging up to Greenland). 

    Hopefully CC, but latest update (worth a read) in the stratospheric thread suggests the possibility of a short E-QBO period with the W-QBO perhaps coming back in time for winter!  It's by no means nailed on, but there have clearly been strange things going on with the QBO since 2016!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Posted (edited)
    On 01/07/2021 at 16:15, CreweCold said:

    It will be weak either side IMO. Perhaps weak Nina being more likely. 
     

    Big winter coming up I feel. I have an early hunch we’ll see a weaker than normal trop PV with predominant Atlantic ridging (at times ridging up to Greenland). 

    Just checked the averaged CFS for December and what do we see? 😛

    image.thumb.png.a3435b75990201726d172ef718f4c373.png

    It must have been following my posts 

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    30JUN2021 - Niño 3: 0.0, Niño 3.4: 0.1, Niño 4: 0.1

    June ONI came in around -0.1.

    AMJ ONI came in at -0.5.

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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    La Niña watch issues - 55% confidence.

    image.thumb.png.dcb3879a04ecbf21b4cf540509b0a897.png

    image.thumb.png.98a26d4562f1005d9bc9debf59dfeac6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    07JUL2021 - Niño 3: 0.0, Niño 3.4: 0.0, Niño 4: -0.1

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    image.thumb.gif.d85fa957eaf473f77e3939a219dfbb53.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    14JUL2021 - Niño 3: 0.1, Niño 3.4: -0.1, Niño 4: -0.4

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Worth a read

    La Nina is returning for Winter 2021/2022, with a watch now issued for the ENSO region, as we head towards the next weather seasons

    Cold La Nina is returning for Winter 2021/2022, with a “La Nina watch” now officially issued for the coming months. New cooling in the tropical Pacific has begun, expected to intensify into Autumn and towards the Winter season.

    But what exactly is this La Nina, and how can it be so powerful to impact the winter weather across the entire Northern Hemisphere? As you are about to find out, La Nina is actually a part of a large system that connects the ocean and the atmosphere called the ENSO.

    We will also take a look at the first long-range forecasts for Autumn and Winter 2021/2022, to see if there is any hint of a La Nina impact on our weather.

    https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/enso-la-nina-watch-autumn-winter-2021-2022-usa-europe-fa/?fbclid=IwAR3q1o_PVOA5bNpLO6tKW86K5zLwsykHquSad8VSpcx1h-eIK1nUrBM9Lxw

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    As per my gif above and another zoomed in version net sub-surface anomolies are now negative again in the ENSO region and down to circa -3. Upwelling is already starting to occur east of the dateline.

    I believe the appropriate term for the coming weeklies will be 'geronimo'.

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