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6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Mind you  a average winter would be great after the few winters   snow possible

I totally agree. Everything is relative to what you have recently experienced. It is by no means a disastrous update, just not as good as september's. After the last few drab winters I think I would settle for a cool dry winter. A snowy one would be a huge bonus.

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Something along the lines of 2014/2015 wouldn't be bad - that was a fairly standard winter.

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2 hours ago, fergieweather said:

GloSea5 was out today. Quite a different take on things... 

Are you able to furnish us with the details Ian?

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1.2: +0.1

3.4: -0.9

We've seen movement towards La Nina in recent weeks with 3.4 getting cooler and potential for a more normal PDO signal to setup in the coming months. JAS also recorded -0.5 so if current trends persist then a weak Nina would be declared in early Feb. 

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Definition from TWO:

"El Nino can sometimes bring warmer winters to Europe and the UK, and La Nina will usually bring colder winters, but to make it clear, both events can bring extreme weather to many areas. It is just that the effects locally are reversed, depending on location."

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17 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

1.2: +0.1

3.4: -0.9

We've seen movement towards La Nina in recent weeks with 3.4 getting cooler and potential for a more normal PDO signal to setup in the coming months. JAS also recorded -0.5 so if current trends persist then a weak Nina would be declared in early Feb. 

It's at -0.9 deg C now, isn't that more approaching the level of a moderately strong La Nina? Weak being a -0.5. It would be interesting as to what this does to seasonal forecasts, such as the one from Accuweather, which assumed a neutral or weak La Nina. Or is it too late to make much of a different? No idea!

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15 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

Definition from TWO:

"El Nino can sometimes bring warmer winters to Europe and the UK, and La Nina will usually bring colder winters, but to make it clear, both events can bring extreme weather to many areas. It is just that the effects locally are reversed, depending on location."

I always thought that weak El Nino was a great Driver for a cooler winter. I havent looked at the evidence for previous years much but the statement above could be reversed and still read right i think:D

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17 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I always thought that weak El Nino was a great Driver for a cooler winter. I havent looked at the evidence for previous years much but the statement above could be reversed and still read right i think:D

Four permutations of ENSO and that's before you add in the permutations for all the other drivers  .... my reply to Yarmy, yesterday.

 

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6 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48174-winter-20162017-because-its-never-too-early/?page=38#comment-4277408

at the american forum they discuss the possibility of a Modoki La Nina, which correlates with a positive NAO 

 

At the strength we are at i'm not too concerned about west/east based since it's not going to dominate the global pattern and indeed weak Nina generally is good for us in terms of the analysis i did (high to the north, low to the south). 

My biggest concern right now (putting the QBO aside) is that we are looking at a neutral PDO at best and a not very +EPO.

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To quote Joe B.

Quote

The warming western Indian Ocean though is signalling the beginning of the end of the whatever nina one wants to conjur up and a warm event could start evolving in the spring

 

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Joe B's comment doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever. Can anyone help decipher what he's talking about?

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14 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

Joe B's comment doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever. Can anyone help decipher what he's talking about?

I don't know either but see more mention of IOD (Indian ocean dipole) as a tool in seasonal forecasting. The recent UKMO paper on NAO forecasting mentions it and ENSO as a signal for a year ahead.

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Should be noted that the correlation between the IOD and ENSO is not always strong. It was noted a few years ago that the Nina was not producing the traditional Indian signal. 

At any rate, this weeks update has 3.4 down to -0.8 so weak Nina still likely to be declared in January. 

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15 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

Joe B's comment doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever. Can anyone help decipher what he's talking about?

I took it to mean that the warming where he mentions signals the end of La Nina (duration). There are some who give different types of La Nina names and I guess the next point was in regard to that. Then he seems to say El Nino type situation in May. A brave thing to say.

 

 

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Oh if only you, s.b.,  knew what the QBO would then do eh?

anyhoos, looks like we might see a WWB across the regions over the coming week?

CwlSJOvW8AAOWJ9.jpg

EDIT: Sorry s.b.! I was looking at a 2014 post from you bemoaning the QBO's reluctance to follow forecast!

 

 

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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The WWB stands out and the atmospheric base state wants nothing to do with the equatorial negative anomalies;

gfsgwo_1.png

I hereby declare the 'No-Nina' of autumn-winter 2016 :crazy:

It's important here to ignore the plummet shown by GEFS longer-term; it's been consistently way off the mark beyond a week's range for about a month now, perpetually showing a fall in GLAAM when the reality has been hanging about positive-neutral and now rising positive! This seems to be a case of the model assuming that the atmosphere will move into sync with the ocean. It'll be messing with the 10-16 day output for some time to come, I expect.

Edited by Singularity
More is More

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NOAA declare La Nina today:

November 10, 2016 La Nina has arrived and is favored to stick around through winter. Forecasters say the climate phenomena will likely contribute to drier and warmer weather in the southern U.S. and wetter, cooler conditions in the Pacific Northwest and across to the northern tier of the nation this winter.

PHOTO - Winter La Nina patterns - NOAA - 11092016 - 1120x534 - LANDSCAPE.png

Full news bulletin: http://www.noaa.gov/news/hello-la-nina

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index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1454.0;a

 

With heat now forming a depth I wouldn't get to hopeful about La Nina being noticeable in the Seasons weather esp. with all the other Ocean areas that are pumping heat out into the atmosphere? To end the Year with a nina will give us a Nina record warm Year???? The last two nina's were 'record warm' Nina's and so this one will make that 'the last 3 Nina's'?

The longer range models have Nina with a 15% chance in 2017/78 with Nino sat at 30% chance of being in charge in 2017/18........

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La Niña no longer likely in the coming months

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Although some very weak La Niña-like patterns continue (such as cooler than normal ocean temperatures and reduced cloudiness in the central and eastern Pacific), La Niña thresholds have not been met. Climate models and current observations suggest these patterns will not persist. The likelihood of La Niña developing in the coming months is now low, and hence the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has shifted from La Niña WATCH to INACTIVE.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also remains neutral (neither positive nor negative), as is typical at this time of year. When ENSO and the IOD are neutral they have limited impact on Australian climate.

The climate of Australia, and other countries around the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean, has been strongly influenced during the second half of 2016 by both a strong negative IOD in the tropical Indian Ocean (that ended in November) and the weak La Niña-like pattern in the tropical Pacific (which has eased). This combination of climate drivers contributed to Australia observing its wettest May to September on record in 2016.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/wrap-up/archive/20161206.archive.shtml#tabs=Overview

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Thanks for that Knocks! I can't say I'm surprised though ( as my posts above will show?)

To me it was about another Nino in 2018 or 19 and I'm pretty worried that it'll take 98's crown as the strongest we have yet measured?

Even if it is not as strong as the 98' event the other factors ( reduced global dimming/extremely low Arctic sea ice) will be pumping warmth into the climate so even without a huge wallop from Nino we'll see records tumbling and the 1.5c above 1880 passed?

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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Having seen so much interference with the ocean's attempts at developing a La Nina this year even when there were stretches of anomalies in the -2 to -2.5*C range in the Central Pacific in the autumn, the following question comes to mind:

Could it be that in a warmer world, while convection can still be encouraged to focus in different locations by the changes in SST anomalies, the fact that the oceans are overall warmer means that there is still enough heat and moisture to allow convective episodes when and where there once would not have been any? Such interference is not a new phenomenon by any means, but the frequency of such events would increase if my thinking is true to reality.

I'm just thinking off the top of my head here so this may not be feasible after all - but I have heard some suggestions in recent years that La Nina events will become increasingly scarce under climate change, so perhaps my idea is part of the mechanism. Then again, those suggestions are theories in themselves :crazy:

 

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