Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    Thanks Fergieweather.The reasoned voice of the silly season.John Holmes also included.Lol

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 1.5k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    See http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z Huge uncertainty however, re scope of any teleconnection for UK winter 16-17 (models still yet to confidently resolve re ENSO neutra

    Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

    The reasons why these three key strong El Nino years, 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98 differed so much in their atmospheric responses is very interesting.   Purely on ocean surface / subsurface data, a

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Thanks as always Fergie. For clarification, did you mean reversal in the zonal winds in the troposphere or reversal in the QBO? Sounds more like the former to me which certainly raises the eyebrows.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
    33 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Thanks as always Fergie. For clarification, did you mean reversal in the zonal winds in the troposphere or reversal in the QBO? Sounds more like the former to me which certainly raises the eyebrows.

    reversal at 10hPa, but signal very tentative at present.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    So there is a tentative sign of a ssw? 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    2 hours ago, weirpig said:

    Interesting  la Nina Modoki and perhaps a easterly QBO   game on perhaps for a more seasonal winter

    Just had a read of the paper Fergie posted. According to these scientists, a regular east based La Nina would be a better option for a negative NAO. Central pacific Nina has a composite for positive NAO but it's all moot with so many variables.

    Your question about a SSW on the next page... they are talking about the tropical stratosphere (I think). An SSW is measured in the arctic circle stratosphere at 60 degrees north

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    4 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

    Just had a read of the paper Fergie posted. According to these scientists, a regular east based La Nina would be a better option for a negative NAO. Central pacific Nina has a composite for positive NAO but it's all moot with so many variables.

    Your question about a SSW on the next page... they are talking about the tropical stratosphere (I think). An SSW is measured in the arctic circle stratosphere at 60 degrees north

    Thank you so by that I presume the there as been a reversal in the zonal winds in thetropical stratosphere  10 Hpa which may result in a easterly QBO

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    Thank you so by that I presume the there as been a reversal in the zonal winds in thetropical stratosphere  10 Hpa which may result in a easterly QBO

    I think that is what he is saying. As far as I know they measure every day above Singapore but we only see a monthly mean in the table at the end of a calendar month. It may mean the downward propagating east cycle is about to start again or it could stay a confused picture for a bit longer.

    Edited by Gael_Force
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    32 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

    I think that is what he is saying. As far as I know they measure every day above Singapore but we only see a monthly mean in the table at the end of a calendar month. It may mean the downward propagating east cycle is about to start again or it could stay a confused picture for a bit longer.

    Brilliant thank you for taking the time. Downward ie stratosphere to troposphere ? 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    2 hours ago, weirpig said:

    Brilliant thank you for taking the time. Downward ie stratosphere to troposphere ? 

    Down through the equatorial stratosphere: measured at lots of levels but the one we usually see on the NOAA site is the 30mb reading. I'm not sure if it ceases to be QBO at the tropopause; something for others to clarify.

    You can see all the levels on the 2016 data.

    http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore2016.dat

    http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/index.html

    Sorry @weirpig ... I misunderstood the reference Fergieweather made: been waffling about wrong subject but it might be even better news.

    Edited by Gael_Force
    Correction for Weirpig.
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
    2 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

    Just had a read of the paper Fergie posted. According to these scientists, a regular east based La Nina would be a better option for a negative NAO. Central pacific Nina has a composite for positive NAO but it's all moot with so many variables.

    Your question about a SSW on the next page... they are talking about the tropical stratosphere (I think). An SSW is measured in the arctic circle stratosphere at 60 degrees north

    Hi - sorry, to clarify. I'm talking about 10hPa, 60 deg. N model signal through November. An interesting possibility so early in the season, but not (currently) a majority ENS solution. 

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
    24 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    Hi - sorry, to clarify. I'm talking about 10hPa, 60 deg. N model signal through November. An interesting possibility so early in the season, but not (currently) a majority ENS solution. 

    Sorry to take off topic so that I might ask Mr Fergusson the question as to whether GloSea5 can differentiate between a Canadian warming, where the vortex is pushed so far into Siberia that it temporarily creates a wind reversal, and a bona fide SSW. I saw the Strat. graph from the model forecast for last winter in the Aemet pdf - very accurate.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    35 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    Hi - sorry, to clarify. I'm talking about 10hPa, 60 deg. N model signal through November. An interesting possibility so early in the season, but not (currently) a majority ENS solution. 

    That would certainly make xmas interesting    Either way this winter is certainly going to be different to last 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    51 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    Hi - sorry, to clarify. I'm talking about 10hPa, 60 deg. N model signal through November. An interesting possibility so early in the season, but not (currently) a majority ENS solution. 

    Will this mean central Siberia may be very cold in late November?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
    23 minutes ago, Nouska said:

    Sorry to take off topic so that I might ask Mr Fergusson the question as to whether GloSea5 can differentiate between a Canadian warming, where the vortex is pushed so far into Siberia that it temporarily creates a wind reversal, and a bona fide SSW. I saw the Strat. graph from the model forecast for last winter in the Aemet pdf - very accurate.

    A very good question. I will endeavour to source an answer for you. 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Well, this takes me back 6 years - the unusually far advanced signs from GloSea of a SSW or Canadian Warming event.

    If only that meant things going forward will necessarily be similar! As it is, the fog still seems unusually dense in the world of long range forecasting at the moment.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Jason Nicholls ‏@jnmet  17h17 hours ago

    Equatorial winds (easterly) and OLR anomalies show a pretty distinct #LaNina Modoki signature across the Pacific.

    Growing confidence of a LaNina Modoki setting in for the winter?

     

    Edited by weirpig
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    7 hours ago, Singularity said:

    Well, this takes me back 6 years - the unusually far advanced signs from GloSea of a SSW or Canadian Warming event.

    If only that meant things going forward will necessarily be similar! As it is, the fog still seems unusually dense in the world of long range forecasting at the moment.

    Aren't Canadian warmings seen as the harbinger of cold and blocked conditions (at least early on in the season) across NW Europe?

    Sure I read we haven't seen one in a while.

    If the GLOSEA is seeing a Canadian Warming event, it perhaps explains the returns that it is showing in this month's update for pressure anomalies through the winter period?

    Edited by CreweCold
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
    On Wednesday, September 21, 2016 at 21:49, Nouska said:

    Sorry to take off topic so that I might ask Mr Fergusson the question as to whether GloSea5 can differentiate between a Canadian warming, where the vortex is pushed so far into Siberia that it temporarily creates a wind reversal, and a bona fide SSW. I saw the Strat. graph from the model forecast for last winter in the Aemet pdf - very accurate.

    Sorry for delay. The answer I'm given is yes, in so far as the human input (ie expert examination of component signals from the model and pattern recognition). 

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    Sorry for delay. The answer I'm given is yes, in so far as the human input (ie expert examination of component signals from the model and pattern recognition). 

    Ohhhhhh Fergie you are setting the pulse racing ! :D

    I will watch this thread like a hawk over the next 6 to 8 weeks, can't wait for chino Tamara and Recteros to get in on the action.

    Tentative signs from Glosea5 that some kind of strat warming may be on the menu before the year is out? 

    Hope iv'e not got the wrong end of the stick :)

     

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Ohhhhhh Fergie you are setting the pulse racing ! :D

    I will watch this thread like a hawk over the next 6 to 8 weeks, can't wait for chino Tamara and Recteros to get in on the action.

    Tentative signs from Glosea5 that some kind of strat warming may be on the menu before the year is out? 

    Hope iv'e not got the wrong end of the stick :)

     

    Get that Canadian warming and it puts us in the driving seat. I'd suggest that the GLOSEA5 ensemble mean for pressure anomalies is being skewed somewhat by those members who initiate this warming...I'd wager if we were to see the individual perts, there'd be some cracking eye candy in there wrt to Greenland HP scenarios. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Get that Canadian warming and it puts us in the driving seat. I'd suggest that the GLOSEA5 ensemble mean for pressure anomalies is being skewed somewhat by those members who initiate this warming...I'd wager if we were to see the individual perts, there'd be some cracking eye candy in there wrt to Greenland HP scenarios. 

    Was there a canadian warming in the Winter/ice age of 1963?

    I am way out of my depth really Crewe but i'm pretty sure canadian warmings are pretty rare...

     

    Edited by northwestsnow
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    Was there a canadian warming in 1963?

    I am way out of my depth really Crewe but i'm pretty sure canadian warmings are pretty rare...

     

    Pretty sure there was a Canadian warming in Nov 1962

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    Pretty sure there was a Canadian warming in Nov 1962

    Likey likey likey likey :D

    Anyway, over to the experts, im preeeety sure i'll see you again in this thread over the next feww weeks crewe !!;)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    Yes, there was a Canadian warming in November '62. Huge band of positive heights extended from Europe to western Canada. I posted a study about it in one of the strat threads.

    PS. we should really move this discussion to the strat thread.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

    Yes, there was a Canadian warming in November '62. Huge band of positive heights extended from Europe to western Canada. I posted a study about it in one of the strat threads.

    PS. we should really move this discussion to the strat thread.

    Oh gawd i thought i was in the strat thread, i really am getting old!!

    I will watch and drool from the sidelines for a while...:)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...