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Gray-Wolf

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I have to say I was always suspicious of such a tiny sliver of very cold anomalies as depicted on the seasonal forecasting; particularly in view of the highly positive PDO remaining in situ.

2 hours ago, Hocus Pocus said:

It appears the spring barrier of forecasting has once again proven it's not wise to make calls until we've reached Summer. Does anyone have any past strong Nino to Niña charts which compare  to the present, I know 98 went from a record Nino to a very strong Niña  but I can't find anything similar to what's showing now?

e72635260cc4c6ed73c9f1ae4b5cc15c.png

'83 looks a good fit with the current modelling and it did maintain a strongly positive PDO for most of that year.

'58 could be a suggestion if there is the likelihood of a return to weak Nino conditions later in the year as some modelling is suggesting.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

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On 6/11/2016 at 15:40, knocker said:

 

So if this forecast is correct, we could have better prospects for the coming winter.

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Having looked around at the data i don't consider the coming La Nina to be under much threat from this rise, it looks temporary as it's mainly being driven by a converging wave and associated westerly wind burst. The next area of divergence is already progressing from the west and should strengthen the easterlies causing further declines in time. I would be highly doubtful that June as a whole will register a rise even if the next update or two do. 

I'm with the dynamic over statistical models with this one.

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Read through this;

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/17/rapid-polar-warming-kicks-enso-out-of-the-climate-drivers-seat-sets-off-big-2014-2016-global-temperature-spike/

If the Indian Ocean anom put nearly as much energy into the climate system as the Nino passed then why are we so focussed on Nino/Nina as drivers?

If the Arctic Amplification provided more energy into the climate system than did the Nino then why are we not as focussed on that?

If every year the climate receives a bigger chunk of energy from anomalous Ocean heat and Arctic Amplification why are we not talking more about them in the Weather community instead of them being consigned to the 'Climate Change' fringe? These things are occurring and , obviously, influencing weather so why do we not use them in our forecasting esp. long range?

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The tropical Pacific Ocean remains in a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state—neither El Niño nor La Niña—with all ocean and atmospheric indicators now near normal.

Recent observations and climate model forecasts continue to suggest La Niña may develop in the coming months, hence the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH level. A La Niña WATCH means there is a 50% likelihood of La Niña developing during the second half of 2016.  If La Niña does develop, climate models suggest it is unlikely to reach levels seen in the most recent event of 2010–12, which was one of the strongest La Niña events on record.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

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1.2 has cooled but 3.4 increased to 0.2 according to the NOAA.

Easterlies returning though as the current westerly wind burst ends so i'd expect another round of cooling to begin in the next week or two. 

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I see that the CFSv2 is actually suggesting a warm neutral by the end of the year - it is hard to anticipate a strong Nina with the continuing warmth of the +PDO signature.

nino34Mon.gif

In other strange goings on - could anybody comment on this Tweet from Anthony Masiello.

Another view that shows the different pattern in recent months.

ee6f6c9de8bb41d361a2e30ac1097b9e.png

 

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Geronimo...

As alluded to previously easterlies have both expanded and strengthened causing upwelling and we've seen a quick dive in readings by 0.5C for 1.2 and 0.6C for 3.4.

Current readings then..

1.2: -0.1

3.4: -0.4

La Nina on the way. 

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On 18/06/2016 at 16:31, knocker said:

 

indeed also worth noting that 2010 had the blank sun and solar flux at very low levels.

as it stands now we are in a similar situation atm and its looking likely to continue my ideas would be a weak la nina or a no la nina or el nino.

either way i have a keen eye on patterns through summer into autumn.

but at this moment there just ideas of whats coming but it would seem at this stage possibly colder winter this year.

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A Gallery of Tropical Influences: MJO, CCKW, TIW, and La Niña

Quote

Is La Niña having second thoughts?
The ongoing transition toward an expected La Niña has been a bit quirky this month. In response to a Western Hemisphere MJO passage, trade winds in early June were unusually weak over much of the eastern tropical Pacific, which runs counter to the La Niña mold. Moreover, the region of cooler-than-average SSTs along the equator is very weak and narrow compared to this point in 1998, when the last “super” El Niño transitioned to La Niña (see Figure 3). The latest weekly Niño3.4 value is -0.4°C, compared to -1.1°C at the same point in June 1998. Another oddity: the daily values of Niño3.4 spiked back above +0.5°C for nearly a week in mid-June, then sank back into negative territory in a matter of days (see Figure 4).

This last quirk may be related to a picturesque feature called tropical instability waves, or TIW. These waves often develop across the eastern equatorial Pacific in northern summer and fall, especially during the onset of La Niña, when SST contrasts are heightened between the equatorial and subtropical regions. The sharp contrast, together with shear produced by contrasting ocean currents, can lead to a line of eddy-like features straddling the equator and marching westward, with a typical separation of about 700 miles (1100 km) between each wave (see Figure 5). Overall, TIW can have a dampening effect on La Niña events, as confirmed in a high-resolution modeling study led by Yukiko Imade (University of Tokyo). In addition, Ventrice notes that the TAO/TRITON buoys that monitor SST across the tropical Pacific have an east-to-west spacing of 15° of longitude, or about 1000 miles (1600 km). According to Ventrice, the wavelength of the TIW and the buoy spacing can sometimes be similar enough to allow regional SST reports to rise and fall in unison over very short periods when the TIW are especially active, as was the case this month (see Figure 6).

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/a-gallery-of-tropical-influences--mjo-cckw-tiw-and-la-nia

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1.2 bounced back up but 3.4 stayed the same. Another westerly burst strangely. 

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It would be very interesting to see no true La Nina establish following such a strong El Nino. On an overly simplistic level I expect that would mean less of a counteraction to this 2015-2016 escalation in global temperatures, among other things.

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3.4 has fallen to -0.6.

1.2 has fallen to 0.

An official weak Nina will probably be declared in September/October. 

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In addition to Tamara's post implying that the pacific westerlies will weaken, we also have a forecast for stronger trade winds.

Could see La Nina stregthen some.

Cn0K91IWEAE6h9_.jpg

 

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On 22/07/2016 at 23:44, summer blizzard said:

In addition to Tamara's post implying that the pacific westerlies will weaken, we also have a forecast for stronger trade winds.

Could see La Nina stregthen some.

Cn0K91IWEAE6h9_.jpg

 

Still we're not headed for a strong event by the looks of it. I'm trying so hard not to get excited over winter 16/17 prospects but it's hard not to given the pieces of the jigsaw that keep falling into place. Saw Steve Murr post a CFS 9 monther run the other day...it wasn't a one off, that model has been going blocking mental (for Jan especially) in most of the updates I've looked at. Continental Europe is consistently shown to be brutalised by the cold in the runs I've seen.

Edited by CreweCold

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9 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Still we're not headed for a strong event by the looks of it. I'm trying so hard not to get excited over winter 16/17 prospects but it's hard not to given the pieces of the jigsaw that keep falling into place. Saw Steve Murr post a CFS 9 monther run the other day...it wasn't a one off, that model has been going blocking mental (for Jan especially) in most of the updates I've looked at. Continental Europe is consistently shown to be brutalised by the cold in the runs I've seen.

I'd ignore the CFS, it's a load of rubbish. 

I'm optimistic though.

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9 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Still we're not headed for a strong event by the looks of it. I'm trying so hard not to get excited over winter 16/17 prospects but it's hard not to given the pieces of the jigsaw that keep falling into place. Saw Steve Murr post a CFS 9 monther run the other day...it wasn't a one off, that model has been going blocking mental (for Jan especially) in most of the updates I've looked at. Continental Europe is consistently shown to be brutalised by the cold in the runs I've seen.

Must admit Crewe that I have been thinking quite alot about the upcoming Winter. Weak la nina to neutral must surely increase the chances of a cold one. Plus, we must be due one lol.

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Best not to pay too much attention to the daily ENSO values. After saying we now have moderate La Nina state and to expect values to continue like that, the 3.4 index has climbed back into neutral territory.

NFbrcIo.png

 

The subsurface cold pool continues to weaken too.

wkxzteq_anm.gif

Most models are going for a continuation of neutral conditions through the Autumn and Winter.

 

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