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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    http://mashable.com/2014/03/19/intense-el-nino-maybe/

     

    "Roundy said the chances of an unusually strong El Niño event “Are much higher than average, it’s difficult to put a kind of probability of it … I’ve suggested somewhere around 80%â€

    “The conditions of the Pacific ocean right now are as favorable for a major event as they were in march of 1997. That’s no major guarantee that a major event develops but clearly it would increase the likelihood of a major event occurring,†Roundy says."

    Starting to look like a major nino is just around the corner?

     

    It does need repeating that 'most' experts, ie for example NOAA, do not suggest any large scale El Nino, at any rate not so far and that goes out to the autumn of the northern hemisphere.

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    See http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z Huge uncertainty however, re scope of any teleconnection for UK winter 16-17 (models still yet to confidently resolve re ENSO neutra

    Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

    The reasons why these three key strong El Nino years, 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98 differed so much in their atmospheric responses is very interesting.   Purely on ocean surface / subsurface data, a

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Hi John!

     

    Are you of the belief that forecasting moves forward over time and new methodologies arise that improve our ability to forecast or do things just stay the same? Current models , using current techniques ( including the decimated Buoy Array) are coming to the end of the 'spring Barrier' of low forecasting skill forecasts so sit tight on this one eh?

     

    Recent Nino news;

     

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-peru-elnino-fishing-idUSBREA2I21C20140319

     

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/19/mid-atlantic-may-enjoy-cool-summer-if-el-nino-develops/

     

    http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Thirsty-California-pins-hopes-on-El-Ni-o-s-return-5336354.php

     

    http://news.yahoo.com/el-ni-o-seen-bringing-much-needed-rain-211112924.html

     

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-fogarty/indonesia-wild-fires_b_4964323.html

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Hi John!

     

    Are you of the belief that forecasting moves forward over time and new methodologies arise that improve our ability to forecast or do things just stay the same? Current models , using current techniques ( including the decimated Buoy Array) are coming to the end of the 'spring Barrier' of low forecasting skill forecasts so sit tight on this one eh?

     

    Recent Nino news;

     

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-peru-elnino-fishing-idUSBREA2I21C20140319

     

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/19/mid-atlantic-may-enjoy-cool-summer-if-el-nino-develops/

     

    http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Thirsty-California-pins-hopes-on-El-Ni-o-s-return-5336354.php

     

    http://news.yahoo.com/el-ni-o-seen-bringing-much-needed-rain-211112924.html

     

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-fogarty/indonesia-wild-fires_b_4964323.html

     

     

    not had time to read your links but I will eventually. Yes I do believe that meteorology can move forward with new ideas. I can quote what the Met O used in the mid 70's for its then 'new' LRF work=the jet stream especially around the Greenland area-honest! Compare that with what they and other centres use now. So things do move forward as knowledge on old and new concepts of meteorology improves.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    The core of the warm waters is now being reported as 6c above average, not seen since March 1996. Updates out again today but more folk are noting the similarities of this evolution with that of the 97' super;

     

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/us-atmospheric-scientists-predict-intense-el-nino/27371

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    The change in SSTs in the ENSO regions since the beginning of the month

     

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    Latest SST anomalies

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    Latest update on the warm kelvin wave, just beginning to break the surface recently.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Latest ensemble forecast for the different ENSO regions

     

    Nino 1 and 2 ....................... .............. Nino 3

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    Nino 3.4.................... ........................... Nino 4

    Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    SOI now responding, 30 day rolling is -13.

     

    Should be declared a weak Nino during summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...
  • Weather Preferences: jack frost
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...

    Strong Pacific Kelvin Wave suggests possible big El Nino on the way. Does this mean a hiatus in hiatus papers?

     

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC002&year=2014&month=03

    enough to give some folks a hernia ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    The most recent upper ocean heat content anomalies are looking pretty impressive, from the latest weekly update. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    Compare that to summer 2012 when El Nino seemed a near certainty, only to change course and fade away.

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Update from the BOM.

     

    While the tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, the chance of an El Niño occurring in 2014 has increased. The latest climate model survey by the Bureau shows that the tropical Pacific is likely to warm in the coming months, with most models showing sea surface temperatures reaching El Niño thresholds during the southern hemisphere winter.

    Observations indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently warming. Following two strong westerly wind bursts since the start of the year, waters below the surface of the tropical Pacific have warmed significantly over the past two months. This has led to some warming at the surface, with further warming expected in the coming weeks. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped to –13—the lowest 30-day value since March 2010—but would need to remain firmly negative for several weeks to indicate the atmosphere and ocean are reinforcing each other.

     

    More here http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

    now cue the easterly bursts and the LA nina predictions ;)

    Tongue in cheek of course, but i stay firmly on the fence with this enso hype!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Cold anomalies almost completely gone, warm anomalies growing by the day, and a +ve PDO remaining. Seems we're well on the road to El Niño.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    We now see the KW posting 7c anoms!!! That's higher than we saw before the 97' super. We are also seeing the ECMWF putting a cyclone in low latitudes forming next week adding into the WWB ( just as we saw before the 97' Super) so the next couple of weeks could see the Kelvin Wave break surface whilst being boosted by the winds from a Cyclone?

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest subsurface animation from the ENSO region

     

    Posted Image

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Am I correct in thinking that the feature is about the length of Europe BFTV?

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Am I correct in thinking that the feature is about the length of Europe BFTV?

     

    Pah! 150E to 90W.... that's about 1/3 of the planet's circumference!

    Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    On the latest weekly outlook, those upper ocean heat anomalies continue to rocket.

     

    ....... ....Last Week ................. ................ .This Week

    Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    We are also seeing the ECMWF putting a cyclone in low latitudes forming next week adding into the WWB ( just as we saw before the 97' Super) so the next couple of weeks could see the Kelvin Wave break surface whilst being boosted by the winds from a Cyclone?

     

    The JTWC has marked two areas very close to each other (separated by the equator) as having 'low' chances of tropical development. Both areas of interest are located very close to the equator. This might trigger (or enhance) a possible Westerly Wind Burst (WWB), if I am correct.

     

    Posted Image

     

    The GFS forecasts the northern hemisphere area of interest to develop into a potent tropical cyclone which would eventually impact the Philippines. This track forecast can be seen below:

     

    Posted Image

    The minimum surface level pressure is indicated by the colour of the squares.

     

    What can be seen is that the GFS forecasts this low to have a minimum surface leve pressure (MSLP) around 990 hPa at the end of the forecast period (in about 5 days). This MSLP may well be underestimated due to the coarseness of the model.

     

    The other low in the southern hemisphere is not expected to develop, according to the GFS. The UKMET, on the contrary, does develop a significant tropical cyclone out of that area.

     

    For now, it will be mostly speculating, though, as the uncertainty is relatively high. 

     

    Sources:

    http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/

    Edited by Vorticity0123
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    The SOI was a moderately -ve -12.04 for March. The is the most negative monthly value since February 2010, during the last El Nino.

    http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/MonthlySOI1887-1989Base.txt

     

    Given all the comparisons with the 1997/98 El Nino, the March 1997 SOI was -7.03.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    I seem to recall that 97' was poorly forecast at the beginning taking just 2 weeks to rapidly form in April ( with the help of a super typhoon?)? This event is looking very similar with a similar supply of heat now heading toward the Americas and the prospect of tropical storms , over the next week, pushing things faster.

    Edited by reef
    This is not climate discussion
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    25 days of warming. Seems likely to hit Nino territory this month, as those anomalies of up to >+7C push toward the surface..

     

    Posted Image

     

    I think we've gone passed the "if" point, and onto the "how strong?"

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    The Pacific equatorial upper ocean heat anomaly continues to grow

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    And that exceptional warm wave moves more vertically and eastward.

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Another detail, the last monthly increase in heat content for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (180 to 100W) was the largest on record, going back to 1979, beating any increases seen during 1982/83 or 1997/98 Ninos.

     

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    I think anyone who puts out seasonal forecasts had better start looking at what a large Nino could lead to in terms of weather patterns it could drive?

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