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From Hybrid/Full Basin El Nino...

 

JN4PkZx.jpg

 

...to - erm - CP La Nina? Or are they usually like this?

 

Only if you take '97/'98 as a template - it was similar - no pattern observable if you take the 72/73 and 82/83 strong events into consideration. The data base is too limited for any meaningful assessment and global conditions have seen big changes in recent years.

 

98  1jFL8A9.png  83  aXKsQFP.png  73  fVehcf5.png

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The 3.4 anomaly is now at +2.8C, matching the 1997/98 peak value.

 

Upper ocean heat in the equatorial Pacific is continuing to climb and is now at the highest observed levels during this Nino so far, so we could see further warming at the surface too.

 

All the while, the CFS is beginning to delay the transition to neutral and -ve values next year.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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Only if you take '97/'98 as a template - it was similar - no pattern observable if you take the 72/73 and 82/83 strong events into consideration. The data base is too limited for any meaningful assessment and global conditions have seen big changes in recent years.

 

98  1jFL8A9.png  83  aXKsQFP.png  73  fVehcf5.png

 

Thanks for that, this gets me thinking about how 1998 panned out  :)

 

 

Just come across some interesting analysis by 'Webberweather53' over on wunderground, hopefully they won't mind me quoting a copy here (along with a quote that he made of someone else):

 

 

"

Anytime you see Nino 4 spiking like it is watchout as Nino 3.4 isn't done with just 2.8C. We should eclipse 3C in the next couple of weeks to make this El-Nino the strongest ever. I also suspect we might peak @ 3.2C in December as there is a new OKW building subsurface as there were 9C anomalies in a small area before the TAO site went down this past weekend.

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The SSTOI index has different values to the cpc (though not a million miles away) but if we take the cpc values and the 0.7 bias to 3.4 over 1.2 (2.8 vs 2.1) then we have the strongest bias to the west since since March 2010 possibly.

 

Hopefully we can see 1.2 weaken enough that the atmosphere responds more as if west based than basin wide.

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As it is so interesting playing around with the historic reanalysis, I couldn't resist having a look at Nino 1877/78.

 

Boy was that strong but how accurate are these proxy based simulations?      9AfIzgu.gif

 

...and the weather patterns for Nov and Dec        uLvxCqd.gif

 

.....  plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose....

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Latest update from the BOM

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

 

It is now six months since the 2015 El Niño became established in the Pacific. During this time, oceanic and atmospheric indicators have been persistently strong, comparable to the events of 1997–98 and 1982–83. International climate models suggest the peak in El Niño sea surface temperatures is likely to occur before the end of the year, then gradually ease in the first quarter of 2016

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Latest update from the BOM

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

 

It is now six months since the 2015 El Niño became established in the Pacific. During this time, oceanic and atmospheric indicators have been persistently strong, comparable to the events of 1997–98 and 1982–83. International climate models suggest the peak in El Niño sea surface temperatures is likely to occur before the end of the year, then gradually ease in the first quarter of 2016

 

 

Interesting to note 82/83 saw a very mild Jan and a cold snowy Feb - did we see a SSW that year? 97/98 produced a generally very mild winter, but colder synoptics in early-mid spring, perhaps this is why many forecasts are suggesting a possibility of cold conditions later in the winter.

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More from Webberweather53 on wungerground. I'm probably being a bit cheeky quoting him/her in full on here but he/she is from the land of free information so...  :D

 

"

Kaplan's Extended SST Version 2 (LDEO) Oceanic Nino Index ASO Rankings (1870-Present). The latest ONI value ( 2.11C) officially set a new record high in this dataset, beating out both 1877-78 & 1997-98. This is also the 13th highest value that's ever been recorded for any tri-monthly period in Kaplan's Extended SSTv2, with only the 1877-78, 1982-83, & 1997-98 "Super" El Ninos registering higher in the ONI, & given that the NINO 3.4 SSTs still haven't peaked yet, we're liable to move up further in the rankings &/or break a record in the next update or two.

Top 20 ONI Values Kaplan Extended SSTv2 (1870-present)

NDJ 1997 2.43
DJF 1983 2.42
NDJ 1982 2.39
OND 1997 2.36
DJF 1998 2.35
DJF 1878 2.24
NDJ 1877 2.23
SON 1997 2.23
OND 1982 2.17
OND 1877 2.15
JFM 1983 2.15
SON 1877 2.12
ASO 2015 2.11
JFM 1878 2.10
JFM 1998 2.07
ASO 1877 2.05
ASO 1997 2.05
OND 1972 2.04
NDJ 1888 2.03
JAS 1877 1.96"

Kaplans-Extended-SSTv2-ASO-ONI-Rankings-

 

Original Data: Link

Additionally, for the 2nd month in a row, the tri-monthly averaged BEST Index set a new record high. Note: I have adjusted this data with a 30-year sliding base period to attempt to remove the inherent warming signal in this index).

The tri-monthly BEST index not only set a monthly record, but a new all-time record high value was recorded this past ASO. In fact the last 2 tri-monthly values have registered in the top 5 overall. Wow. The utter domination by the 1877-78, 1982-83, & 1997-98 Super NINOs is evident in the top 20 tri-monthly BEST Index rankings...

Top 20 (adjusted) Tri-Monthly BEST Index Values
ASO 2015 2.616
JFM 1983 2.595
DJF 1983 2.549
NDJ 1982 2.476
JAS 2015 2.454
JFM 1998 2.397
OND 1982 2.281
DJF 1878 2.236
DJF 1998 2.216
SON 1982 2.214
AMJ 1877 2.182
FMA 1983 2.172
JFM 1878 2.157
ASO 1997 2.156
NDJ 1997 2.067
MJJ 1877 2.061
SON 1877 2.050
JAS 1997 2.044
JJA 1877 2.023
FMA 1878 2.016

 

Tri-Monthly-Adjusted-BEST-Index-1870-ASO

 

Original data:

Link

"

 

 

That's the sort of analysis I'd love to be doing myself if I could spare the time at the moment - fascinating stats illustrating just how impressive this year's event has become.

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Quote from Levi Cowan

 

Nino 3.4 daily anomaly is now at +3.0C. You won't see this many times in your life.

 

 

post-12275-0-69215800-1447707438_thumb.p

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Quote from Levi Cowan

 

Nino 3.4 daily anomaly is now at +3.0C. You won't see this many times in your life.

 

Indeed. That anomaly of +3.0C for the Nino 3.4 region is now the warmest on record.

 

Incredibly warm waters continue to build across the equatorial Pacific, and the El Niño event of 2015 has just set a record for the warmest waters ever observed in the equatorial Pacific over a 1-week period. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific’s Niño3.4 region, between 90°W and 160°E longitude and 5° north/south latitude, are considered the benchmark for rating the strength of an El Niño event. The weekly departure of SST from average in this region hit +3.0°C (5.4°F) over the past week, NOAA announced in their November 16 El Niño update. This exceeds the previous 1-week record warmth in the equatorial Pacific of 2.8°C above average set during the week of November 26, 1997; accurate El Niño records extend back to 1950. However, the standard measure for the strength of an El Niño event is the three-month average Niño 3.4 SSTs, and the El Niño of 2015 is not yet officially considered the strongest on record.

 

nino-nov16.jpg

 

More here: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3186

 

As always, the latest weekly ENSO report: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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Beginning to wonder with region 3.4 being +3.0C and region 1+2 being 1.5C whether this may cause the response from the El Nino to be more modoki like? As in previous years the temperature difference between those regions must have been the same?

 

The last week the Aleutian Low seems to have drifted further west with High Pressure ridging into Alaska. 

Edited by Supercell 89
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Is there any cooling in the east pacific yet?

 

Karyo

 

Edit: to answer my own question, according to the climate prediction center, there is a gradual cooling in the eastern Pacific but the ssts are still high there (+2). 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 

Edited by karyo
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Is there any cooling in the east pacific yet?

 

Karyo

 

Edit: to answer my own question, according to the climate prediction center, there is a gradual cooling in the eastern Pacific but the ssts are still high there (+2). 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 

 

If you take SST anomaly change over the last seven days, movement is certainly in the right direction. Region 4 has seen a warming and 1-2 a slight cooling.

 

nino4.png   cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

As to whether it is the differential between regions or the actual temps - not sure anybody knows the answer to that - we're kind of in new territory here as far as the overall Pacific profile.

 

NB  - The above images should update, might make the text out of context on future viewings.

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I suspect its not solely the relative difference and so would say that it will still act basin wide however if 1.2 goes below 1.0 then I'd be cheering.

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With the absolute SSTs being higher in the Central Pacific regardless of El Nino 'flavour', the resultant weakening of the Walker Cell and tropical convection probably remains more or less the same for both CP and EP events.

 

What appears to set CP events apart is that the EP is cool enough to interrupt the enhancement of the Pacific Jet, in light of which Summer Blizzard's thinking makes a lot of sense to me. So we have a way to go yet - but there are plenty of hints from the longer range model guidance that the EP could cool sufficiently by mid-winter to generate more of a CP type atmospheric response.

 

I believe the atmosphere has been racing along 'ahead of schedule' in terms of response to the current El Nino, in that we've seen a strong displacement east of the Azores High before the winter season has even got underway, followed by wave breaking along the typical El Nino path but sooner than the analogue years seemed to suggest (to my eyes, at least). The trouble is, that pathway to stratospheric vortex disruption later in the season looks at great risk of being derailed by misbehaving tropical convection in the near future, as it becomes unusually active across a wide stretch of the Indian Ocean in particular. Because of this, I am starting to get the feeling that a transitory CP El Nino type atmospheric response may be our greatest card when playing for an extended cold, snowy period of weather this winter.

 

Please, oh mighty El Nino, metamorphose into a CP event and save us from chasing toppling mid-Atlantic ridges that tease but seldom deliver for the snow-starved southerners! :help:  

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Latest weekly ENSO update here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

El Nino 2015 beats its own record for the largest weekly anomaly in the 3.4 regions, now up to +3.1C. All other ENSO regions have either warmed or remained stable over the past week.

 

However, a cold (upwelling) wave has been set in motion, and looks strong than the weak one that have occurred over the last year. Something to keep an eye on.

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Disappointing to see that the cooling in East Pacific has stopped.

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Latest weekly ENSO update here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

El Nino 2015 beats its own record for the largest weekly anomaly in the 3.4 regions, now up to +3.1C. All other ENSO regions have either warmed or remained stable over the past week.

 

However, a cold (upwelling) wave has been set in motion, and looks strong than the weak one that have occurred over the last year. Something to keep an eye on.

 

If this cooling does occur, will it be 1.2 or 3.4 which feels it most?

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If this cooling does occur, will it be 1.2 or 3.4 which feels it most?

 

It would still be a few weeks away before it could influence surface temps, possibly into 2016. It might not have any effect though, like the previous ones this year. We'll just have to wait and watch. 

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I've put this in the North American thread but it also may be of interest here.

 

Historic Warmth across North America possible in December

 

 

There’s been a great deal of discussion with regards to this year’s El Nino event underway in the eastern Pacific. Looking at a map of ocean temperature anomalies at the surface, there’s no doubt that the 2015-2016 El Nino will go down in record books as one of the strongest El Nino’s observed. Just look at that long tongue of warmer than average sea-surface temperatures, from the coast of South America all the way to the Date Line along the equator.

 

http://www.wsi.com/b...ble-in-december

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Question for whoever feels they can answer this: Is there a lag effect between an el nino becoming Modoki (central based) before it affects our weather or can the response be pretty quick?

 

Of course other factors can play a big role so this is a totally hypothetical question.

 

Karyo

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Question for whoever feels they can answer this: Is there a lag effect between an el nino becoming Modoki (central based) before it affects our weather or can the response be pretty quick?

 

Of course other factors can play a big role so this is a totally hypothetical question.

 

Karyo

Stuff generally takes about 20 days as I recall and its still far too strong in 1.2.

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New to this game, but I thought I would add a little if I can.

Most recent down welling (warming phase) of a kelvin wave started ~at the dateline at the end of October on a similar trajectory as K1 and K2 with roughly a 3-4 week lag time lag time between warming the Nino 4 region and affecting the 1+2 region. This has been witnessed 4 times in 2015, notably two successive times in jun and July not allowing any upwelling cooling phase to intervene producing a net warming effect upon Nino 3.4 region.

Currently the Nino 4 and 3.4 regions are at 1.8 and 3.1 degrees above average respectively and will probably not be able to rise any further. Expect the Nino 4 region to decrease relatively quickly towards the months end. However the 1+2 region has not yet experienced the warming from the KW, expected probably this week or the the next. The last KW pushed the 1+2 temps 0.6 degrees in a week, so expect a similar kick if not more...possibly up to 2.6 or 2.7 this time as the waters cool climatologically.

Although the Nino 3 region is nowhere near how warm it was in Nov/Dec 1997, this truly basin wide event will be historic and has already broken atmospheric indices relating to upper level wind anomalies documented by some research over the pond. Closer to home the amplified wave pattern which should continue as the heat anomaly strengthens in the east Pacific. This should continue to provide some opportunities for some north or NE air outbreaks, but will only be transient. It has been said that these amplified or excited rossby waves can increase the likelyhood of strat vortex interference but there are many other drivers which may inhibit this, this winter.

If surface advection feedbacks start to emerge in the new year across the West Pacific, a Modoki signature may emerge which may have some implications for the winter back to which some here may re-ignite some interest after what will be a predominantly wet and windy start to winter.

I will try and post some graphics to add to this once I work out how to do it on my phone...?!

Cheers.

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