E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Gray-Wolf]

The models are still pushing a 3c event come 'traditional' peak period.

 

This is beginning to look like it may well take the crown for strongest ENSO event ever recorded ( records go back to 1870).

 

And then what? Will it drop straight into Nina or has the past two such events hinted at a warming of such?

 

Do we see an attempt at Nina overcome by background ocean warmth ( as we saw with the last couple once the trades fell lighter) meaning the Nino pulse of global warmth sees no counter balance?

 

This has been the most peculiar two global weather years!  

[summer blizzard]

Can't see it challenging 97 or 83 as yet although I suppose its possible.

Most strong Nino's are followed by a decent Nina. 2010 being one of the better examples.

[BornFromTheVoid]

We can see the beginning of the new warm kelvin wave on the latest subsurface animation here, the sudden jump in +ve anomalies on the last frame on the left.

 

 

The upper ocean heat content has stabilised after dropping a little, and may begin increasing again as the new wave develops. Further westerly anomalies should continue across much of the equatorial Pacific too, shifting generally eastward.

 

 

 

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

 

 

So with most of the models going for a near, or 3c Event by Nov you cannot see it becoming a monster??? Nor the 'rebound being more akin to the 07/08 Nina?

Edited July 11, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[summer blizzard]

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

 

 

So with most of the models going for a near, or 3c Event by Nov you cannot see it becoming a monster??? Nor the 'rebound being more akin to the 07/08 Nina?

 

Pretty certain to beat 06/10 however i'm not sure it will break the top 2. 

 

At least a moderate Nina is likely by late 16/early 17.

[knocker]

Brian Bledsoe â€@BrianBledsoe 10m10 minutes ago

See the differences? NE Pac may cool to resemble 82-83, 97-98, but it has a LONG WAY to go #cowx #cawx

[Mokidugway]

Should be interesting , will be in LA in a7 weeks or so ..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting the talk of Ninos 82/3 and 97/8...both of them were around the lunar minimum standstill, as is this event.  I'm very interested in this year, the Nino should be significant and of natural causes.  I expect a very interesting autumn/winter 15/16 as I think a very unstable declining climactic set to take hold....the 'next step change' as I call it

 

 

BFTP 

[summer blizzard]

MEI confirms a top 10% event and third highest June value.

[knocker]

I look on in wonder!

 

Andrew - Andrej â€@Recretos 6h6 hours ago

A winter composite, of the last 17 El Nino events. @RyanMaue @antmasiello @MattHugo81 @BigJoelaminate floori

Edited July 14, 2015 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

I look on in wonder!

 

Andrew - Andrej â€@Recretos 6h6 hours ago

A winter composite, of the last 17 El Nino events. @RyanMaue @antmasiello @MattHugo81 @BigJoelaminate floori

 

Not sure it always delivers for the UK unfortunately. 

 

Since 1982 i do know that 1987 and 2010 both saw Q1 periods with at least 2 months 1C below the  1981-2010 average though.

[summer blizzard]

Just had a look at the 83 and 97 events if that's what we match then they had 14 months with MEI values above 1 (we've had 2 so far) and peaks in months 5 and 9 (September-January for us).

 

Other notable events to compare to are 87 and 92 which also had values above 1 for 9 and 14 months with peaks in months with peaks in months 6 and 7. 

 

...

 

In summary, strong support for a September-January peak based on where we are but also strong support for solid El Nino conditions until January-June. 

[knocker]

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 16h16 hours ago

It's already here folks...a MAJOR El Nino event underway; stronger atmos. forcing than 1997 at this point in time.

And

Battle of the Super Ninos 1997 vs. 2015 SST anomaly

 

Edited July 16, 2015 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

The recent burst of westerly winds has definitely kicked off another kelvin wave, which can be seen with the developing +ve anomalies in the western Pacific below. 

 

 

This has caused a jump in the upper ocean heat content which, combined with the SOI being at it's most negative value so far, further supports the idea of this Nino lasting right through the year.

 

  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just had a look at the 83 and 97 events if that's what we match then they had 14 months with MEI values above 1 (we've had 2 so far) and peaks in months 5 and 9 (September-January for us).

 

Other notable events to compare to are 87 and 92 which also had values above 1 for 9 and 14 months with peaks in months with peaks in months 6 and 7. 

 

...

 

In summary, strong support for a September-January peak based on where we are but also strong support for solid El Nino conditions until January-June. 

I think we'll see a rapid drop off from Nino next year.  I have it to peak in our Autumn [Oct/Nov].  Let's see how this pans out.  What QBO will we have this winter? 

 

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

We'll have a west qbo Fred.

Ok thanks, a negative in itself...but I think we are in new territory

 

BFTP

[geoffw]

Ok thanks, a negative in itself...but I think we are in new territory

 

BFTP

 

so what are your suggestions for this winter?

[Bullseye]

The current El Nino looks again to be getting tad stronger and each day comes ever closer to Super EN of 1997, if this does happen this will break into top 5 strongest EN ever along which currently are 1997/1982/1972/1888 and strongest of them all 1877, although this is up for debate due to some lack of data. Other very strong EN include 1987-88/1957-58(?)/1965-66/1940-41/1930-31/1905-06/1902-03 and 1896-97 (records go back to 1870s). Some of the years above produced very mild and some very cold in regard to winters, although more factors to take into account like always solar activity for example and also N.Atlantic conditions which has been interesting in the current EN.

Thanks.

Edited July 21, 2015 by Bullseye

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest from the BOM

 

The 2015 El Niño continues to develop. Weakened (or reversed) trade winds have resulted in further warming over much of the tropical Pacific Ocean. All key ENSO ocean monitoring areas have been more than 1 °C above average for 10 successive weeks—two weeks longer than the record in 1997. The eastern tropical Pacific is now at or exceeding +2 °C. In the atmosphere, the past week has seen the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) drop to around −20, the lowest values of the event so far.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate El Niño is likely to strengthen, and is expected to persist into early 2016. El Niño events typically peak during the late austral spring or early summer, and then weaken in the new year.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[summer blizzard]

Just been doing some calculating for the AO state this winter with an El Nino of decent strength.

 

So there's a clear bias towards no strong AO value indicated in Q4.

 

For the Jan-March period if the 3.4 value records +1 (likely) then there's a 50% chance of Jan or Feb seeing AO values below -1 (good for us statistically).  

[Love Snow]

Nice read

http://www.weather.com/science/news/el-nino-comparison-2015-1997-climate-central?cm_ven=Facebook_TheWeatherChannel_Science_JBa_Article_No_5_20150725_twcplayer

[Nouska]

An 'interesting' ensemble plume from the July ECM run.....this shows the other very strong Nino events ......way down below the main pack!

 

 

Image courtesy of Phil Klotzbach.  -   https://twitter.com/philklotzbach

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest weekly ENSO update here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

Looks like this Nino will last well into 2016.

 

There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last through early spring 2016.*

 

We have another strong downwelling kevlin wave

 

"In early July, the eastward propagation of the downwelling phase of another strong Kelvin wave is evident."

 

And upper ocean heat content is back to to the highest levels seen back in March

 

[wishfulwinter]

Just read on a blog that el nino is strengthening:

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2015/07/28/weather-blog-strengthening-el-nino/

Eagerly anticipating 4th August (and folliwing) updates. Will be fascinating to see how our winter pans out this time round.

[mountain shadow]

With parts of the Pacific nearly 5 degrees above average and part of the North Atlantic nearly 5 degrees below, do we have any analogues to how this might impact on Autumn and Winter for North West Europe?

 

Those North Atlantic temps are very impressive.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.7.27.2015.gif