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I think anyone who puts out seasonal forecasts had better start looking at what a large Nino could lead to in terms of weather patterns it could drive?

 

Ive been following this thread and wondering exactly what this El Nino might mean for our coming Summer, Autumn, Winter. No need for specifics but what kind of generalities might we expect. I seem to remember the August of 1997 was one of the warmest on record and the winter of 97/98 was very wet and mild.

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Ive been following this thread and wondering exactly what this El Nino might mean for our coming Summer, Autumn, Winter. No need for specifics but what kind of generalities might we expect. I seem to remember the August of 1997 was one of the warmest on record and the winter of 97/98 was very wet and mild.

 

I'm not sure about Summer and Autumn, but a study just released by Scaife et al of the Met Office, suggests that they've managed to create quite accurate winter predictions of the NAO and other feature of the north Atlantic months in advance, using new models.

According to them, some of the most important things to consider are the state of ENSO, heat content of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, the QBO and sea ice coverage in the Kara sea.

According to them, El Nino, warm subpolar gyre, low Kara Sea ice, and easterly QBO, each tend to favour -ve NAO condition, while the opposite forms contribute to +ve NAO conditions.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059637/abstract

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So perhaps next winter has the potential be a good one,El Nino combined with an easterly QBO?

The last time we had an El Nino during winter was winter 2009/10 i think and that was a good one although i cant remember the state of the other teleconnections,well anyway it will be interesting to see what happens next winter.

Edited by sundog

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Hey all,

 

I created a YouTube video about the developing El Nino a few days ago. I thought you guys might like to see it;

 

 

 

Looks like El Nino is on the way for 2014/2015!

Edited by Gavin P
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March PDO figures come in much as expected with a whopping 0.97! That's three months of positive each posting stronger than the rest.

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March PDO figures come in much as expected with a whopping 0.97! That's three months of positive each posting stronger than the rest.

 

I'm not up to speed with technical climate topics...so I usually just follow along and try to learn in the process...but a PDO of 0.9 isn't exceptionally high is it? 

I am just basing this on this historical graph, which I have just looked up, and had a quick look at it

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PDO.svg

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I'm not up to speed with technical climate topics...so I usually just follow along and try to learn in the process...but a PDO of 0.9 isn't exceptionally high is it? 

I am just basing this on this historical graph, which I have just looked up, and had a quick look at it

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PDO.svg

 

It's probably more the case that we're supposed to be moving toward the middle of the -ve PDO period (though there's debate as to whether the -ve period started in 1998 or 2006), yet this is the most +ve PDO monthly value since June 2006, and with El Nino looking ever more likely, the +ve PDO may even get stronger into the summer.

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Blog from Paul Hudson on how this year's predicted El Nino will affect our climate

 

For the first time since 2009, computer simulations are suggesting that an El Nino event is likely as we head into the second half of this year. El Nino is the name given to describe an upwelling of warmer than average water in the Equatorial Pacific, and is known to disrupt climate patterns around the world. During previous El Nino events, much wetter winters have occurred in Southwest USA. For California, the developing El Nino will therefore be very welcome news as the state has recently suffered the worst drought on record due to a chronic lack of rainfall. Amongst other areas which will be affected is Northern Australia, where drought conditions are expected. El Nino is also associated with warm and very wet weather during summer months along the coast of northern Peru, for example.

 

As for Europe and the UK, the consequences of El Nino are much less clear. Research suggests that the main impact is more likely to be felt in winter, causing colder, drier conditions in Northern Europe, and wetter, milder winters through southern Europe and the Mediterranean. During the last El Nino of 2009/2010, the winter across northern Europe, including the UK was exceptionally cold. But there are many other variables which affect Europe’s climate and there was a deep, protracted solar minimum at the same time, which is known to increase the likelihood of colder winters. And despite El Nino of 2006/2007, Europe’s winter was mild. One of the other main consequences of the predicted El Nino later this year would be to boost global temperatures. It could mean either 2014 or 2015 will become the hottest year globally on record. One way of the other, El Nino will certainly have the potential to grab the headlines later this year.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/How-will-this-years-predicted-El-Nino-affect-our-climate

Edited by Summer Sun
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Am I reading this correctly? If the ONI, currently at 0.7, continues at this level, or indeed at any level between 0.5 and above until September then an El Nino is officially declared. Albeit at this level it would be quite weak and on a par with 2004.

Edited by knocker

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Am I reading this correctly? If the ONI, currently at 0.7, continues at this level, or indeed at any level between 0.5 and above until September then an El Nino is officially declared.

The latest ONI value is -0.7 for JFM. We've been borderline La Niña since the beginning of last year.

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The latest ONI value is -0.7 for JFM. We've been borderline La Niña since the beginning of last year.

 

OOPS, apologies I read that as 0.7. It's not as if it's not big enough. So I assume a change from negative to positive is expected.

 

EDIT

 

So the ONI has to be in excess of 0.5 by  MJJ fot an El Nino this year.

Edited by knocker

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http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2665

 

It appears there may be a link between the odd US weather this winter past and El Nino?

 

We've been closer to a Nina all winter, while the pattern in the USA was vaguely like El Nino that's probably more related to the +QBO.

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I dont see it that way SB? We had the largest bulge of warm water awaiting release than we have measured before? If ever there was a Nino sat in waiting it's been the past couple of years? Now we see failing trades and westerly wind bursts  ( and the odd cyclone) adding a hand to shifting that warm bulge towards the Americas the results are inevitable. QBO can aid or hinder Nino but it does not call the shots (IMHO). 

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I dont see it that way SB? We had the largest bulge of warm water awaiting release than we have measured before? If ever there was a Nino sat in waiting it's been the past couple of years? Now we see failing trades and westerly wind bursts  ( and the odd cyclone) adding a hand to shifting that warm bulge towards the Americas the results are inevitable. QBO can aid or hinder Nino but it does not call the shots (IMHO)

 

 

Yes but there were marked cold anomolies at the surface all winter, warm water is useless unless it makes it to the surface. It's got moving since March but MEI and SOI data all back me up in saying that this winter was closer to a Nina than a Nino in atmospheric response.

Certainly we'll have at least a moderate El Nino now though.

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We were well on the winter regime of Nina as illustrated by these anomalies Stt January:

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.1.30.2014.gif

 

Moreover, the low Nina had even strengthened during the month of February. the warm waters of the Pacific began in earnest only during the month of March

 

 

Regarding mild and wet winter, this was caused by the strong positive QBO and low Nina with a strong dipole

Posted Image

 

 

At present it has the return of El Nino but for me personal, I do not see a strong El Nino as some think, but an El Nino same magnitude as 2009/2010 or 2006/2007. The cold PDO does not allow strong El Nino to take their place in this cycle

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We were well on the winter regime of Nina as illustrated by these anomalies Stt January:

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.1.30.2014.gif

 

Moreover, the low Nina had even strengthened during the month of February. the warm waters of the Pacific began in earnest only during the month of March

 

 

Regarding mild and wet winter, this was caused by the strong positive QBO and low Nina with a strong dipole

Posted Image

 

 

At present it has the return of El Nino but for me personal, I do not see a strong El Nino as some think, but an El Nino same magnitude as 2009/2010 or 2006/2007. The cold PDO does not allow strong El Nino to take their place in this cycle

Is that the North American dipole? Lots of dipoles in meteorology now!

The PDO has been positive for the last 3 months, with a March value of 0.97. While we may still be in the thick of the -ve cycle (something we can only really determine with hindsight) it doesn't seem to be influencing the current goings on.

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Is that the North American dipole? Lots of dipoles in meteorology now!The PDO has been positive for the last 3 months, with a March value of 0.97. While we may still be in the thick of the -ve cycle (something we can only really determine with hindsight) it doesn't seem to be influencing the current goings on.

 

 

It is difficult to know more at the moment in any case. Waiting for the summer to learn more about the potential strength of El Nino

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Latest from the BOM

 

The likelihood of El Niño remains high, with all climate models surveyed by the Bureau now indicating El Niño is likely to occur in 2014. Six of the seven models suggest El Niño thresholds may be exceeded as early as July.

The Pacific Ocean has been warming along the equator over recent weeks, with continued warming in the central Pacific likely in coming months. Another burst of westerly winds is presently occurring in the western Pacific, and is likely to cause further warming of the sub-surface.

 

More here http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

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