Jump to content

Recommended Posts

http://mashable.com/2014/03/19/intense-el-nino-maybe/

 

"Roundy said the chances of an unusually strong El Niño event “Are much higher than average, it’s difficult to put a kind of probability of it … I’ve suggested somewhere around 80%â€

“The conditions of the Pacific ocean right now are as favorable for a major event as they were in march of 1997. That’s no major guarantee that a major event develops but clearly it would increase the likelihood of a major event occurring,†Roundy says."

Starting to look like a major nino is just around the corner?

 

It does need repeating that 'most' experts, ie for example NOAA, do not suggest any large scale El Nino, at any rate not so far and that goes out to the autumn of the northern hemisphere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi John!

 

Are you of the belief that forecasting moves forward over time and new methodologies arise that improve our ability to forecast or do things just stay the same? Current models , using current techniques ( including the decimated Buoy Array) are coming to the end of the 'spring Barrier' of low forecasting skill forecasts so sit tight on this one eh?

 

Recent Nino news;

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-peru-elnino-fishing-idUSBREA2I21C20140319

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/19/mid-atlantic-may-enjoy-cool-summer-if-el-nino-develops/

 

http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Thirsty-California-pins-hopes-on-El-Ni-o-s-return-5336354.php

 

http://news.yahoo.com/el-ni-o-seen-bringing-much-needed-rain-211112924.html

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-fogarty/indonesia-wild-fires_b_4964323.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi John!

 

Are you of the belief that forecasting moves forward over time and new methodologies arise that improve our ability to forecast or do things just stay the same? Current models , using current techniques ( including the decimated Buoy Array) are coming to the end of the 'spring Barrier' of low forecasting skill forecasts so sit tight on this one eh?

 

Recent Nino news;

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-peru-elnino-fishing-idUSBREA2I21C20140319

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/19/mid-atlantic-may-enjoy-cool-summer-if-el-nino-develops/

 

http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Thirsty-California-pins-hopes-on-El-Ni-o-s-return-5336354.php

 

http://news.yahoo.com/el-ni-o-seen-bringing-much-needed-rain-211112924.html

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-fogarty/indonesia-wild-fires_b_4964323.html

 

 

not had time to read your links but I will eventually. Yes I do believe that meteorology can move forward with new ideas. I can quote what the Met O used in the mid 70's for its then 'new' LRF work=the jet stream especially around the Greenland area-honest! Compare that with what they and other centres use now. So things do move forward as knowledge on old and new concepts of meteorology improves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The change in SSTs in the ENSO regions since the beginning of the month

 

Posted Image

 

 

Latest SST anomalies

 

Posted Image

 

 

Latest update on the warm kelvin wave, just beginning to break the surface recently.

 

Posted Image

 

Latest ensemble forecast for the different ENSO regions

 

Nino 1 and 2 ....................... .............. Nino 3

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Nino 3.4.................... ........................... Nino 4

Posted ImagePosted Image

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SOI now responding, 30 day rolling is -13.

 

Should be declared a weak Nino during summer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The most recent upper ocean heat content anomalies are looking pretty impressive, from the latest weekly update. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

Posted Image

 

 

Compare that to summer 2012 when El Nino seemed a near certainty, only to change course and fade away.

 

Posted Image

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Update from the BOM.

 

While the tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, the chance of an El Niño occurring in 2014 has increased. The latest climate model survey by the Bureau shows that the tropical Pacific is likely to warm in the coming months, with most models showing sea surface temperatures reaching El Niño thresholds during the southern hemisphere winter.

Observations indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently warming. Following two strong westerly wind bursts since the start of the year, waters below the surface of the tropical Pacific have warmed significantly over the past two months. This has led to some warming at the surface, with further warming expected in the coming weeks. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped to –13—the lowest 30-day value since March 2010—but would need to remain firmly negative for several weeks to indicate the atmosphere and ocean are reinforcing each other.

 

More here http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

now cue the easterly bursts and the LA nina predictions ;)

Tongue in cheek of course, but i stay firmly on the fence with this enso hype!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cold anomalies almost completely gone, warm anomalies growing by the day, and a +ve PDO remaining. Seems we're well on the road to El Niño.

Posted Image

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We now see the KW posting 7c anoms!!! That's higher than we saw before the 97' super. We are also seeing the ECMWF putting a cyclone in low latitudes forming next week adding into the WWB ( just as we saw before the 97' Super) so the next couple of weeks could see the Kelvin Wave break surface whilst being boosted by the winds from a Cyclone?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Am I correct in thinking that the feature is about the length of Europe BFTV?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Am I correct in thinking that the feature is about the length of Europe BFTV?

 

Pah! 150E to 90W.... that's about 1/3 of the planet's circumference!

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are also seeing the ECMWF putting a cyclone in low latitudes forming next week adding into the WWB ( just as we saw before the 97' Super) so the next couple of weeks could see the Kelvin Wave break surface whilst being boosted by the winds from a Cyclone?

 

The JTWC has marked two areas very close to each other (separated by the equator) as having 'low' chances of tropical development. Both areas of interest are located very close to the equator. This might trigger (or enhance) a possible Westerly Wind Burst (WWB), if I am correct.

 

Posted Image

 

The GFS forecasts the northern hemisphere area of interest to develop into a potent tropical cyclone which would eventually impact the Philippines. This track forecast can be seen below:

 

Posted Image

The minimum surface level pressure is indicated by the colour of the squares.

 

What can be seen is that the GFS forecasts this low to have a minimum surface leve pressure (MSLP) around 990 hPa at the end of the forecast period (in about 5 days). This MSLP may well be underestimated due to the coarseness of the model.

 

The other low in the southern hemisphere is not expected to develop, according to the GFS. The UKMET, on the contrary, does develop a significant tropical cyclone out of that area.

 

For now, it will be mostly speculating, though, as the uncertainty is relatively high. 

 

Sources:

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/

Edited by Vorticity0123
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The SOI was a moderately -ve -12.04 for March. The is the most negative monthly value since February 2010, during the last El Nino.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/MonthlySOI1887-1989Base.txt

 

Given all the comparisons with the 1997/98 El Nino, the March 1997 SOI was -7.03.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I seem to recall that 97' was poorly forecast at the beginning taking just 2 weeks to rapidly form in April ( with the help of a super typhoon?)? This event is looking very similar with a similar supply of heat now heading toward the Americas and the prospect of tropical storms , over the next week, pushing things faster.

Edited by reef
This is not climate discussion

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

25 days of warming. Seems likely to hit Nino territory this month, as those anomalies of up to >+7C push toward the surface..

 

Posted Image

 

I think we've gone passed the "if" point, and onto the "how strong?"

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Pacific equatorial upper ocean heat anomaly continues to grow

 

Posted Image

 

 

And that exceptional warm wave moves more vertically and eastward.

 

Posted Image

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another detail, the last monthly increase in heat content for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (180 to 100W) was the largest on record, going back to 1979, beating any increases seen during 1982/83 or 1997/98 Ninos.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think anyone who puts out seasonal forecasts had better start looking at what a large Nino could lead to in terms of weather patterns it could drive?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×