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I've been looking around the forum and can't seem to find any Nino/Nina thread?

 

Seeing as such events have global impacts maybe we ought to follow the trends/forecasts especially if we are looking at 'seasonal' forecasts as obviously Nino or Nina will add a 'flavour' of what we ought to expect?

 

With so many of us focussed on global temps the impacts of these events are also key.... we all saw what the 'Super Nino' did to , what were then 'record' global temps?

 

If we do indeed have an E.N.S.O. thread then maybe it could be pinned instead of floating down the line into oblivion?

 

As it stands it is beginning to look as though we are to see the formation of an El Nino over the summer months? The predictions have shifted from expect 'Nada' (neither Nino or Nina) conditions over summer into a majority member split for Nino. Such forecasts can be sloppy over autumn and winter but tend to firm up over spring/summer.

 

This year may be even more interesting than that in that it has now been 16 years since our last 'Super Nino'. As a rule these return every 20 years on average but the last two such events were only 15 years apart. Recent studies point to a reduction in time between 'Supers' as the oceans continue to warm. I have to wonder if this played any part in the spacing of the last two 'Supers' and if this is any indication as to whether we ought expect any new nino to turn into a 'super'?

 

By May we should have a much better idea of what we are to expect ENSO to do later in the year and this , in its turn, might impact what kind of winter 14/15 might turn into?

 

We hear a lot about MJO and its impacts on our day to day weather but this index also helps in the ENSO predictions and , currently , the 30 and 50 mb plot seem similar to those of 98'?

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Models are always too bullish in predicting El Nino, they have done so for the last 2 years.

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Indeed, I'm not convinced by the forecasts at the moment, nearly all are going for Neutral/weak El Nino conditions over the coming year, the only exception it seems being UKMO.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html

 

Previous years:

 

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

I don't think you can read much into them with regards to how winters/summers might turn out here. Both strong El Nino and La Nina both show examples of good and bad summers/winters. Its just a small piece of the puzzle.

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I wonder if that is the PDO sway SB? The southern hemisphere have been impacted by 'nino like' conditions esp. over Australia with the SO showing positive there this past 2 years?

 

Anyhoos, each year is a year closer to the next one isn't it? As it is forecast ( as JH linked to) are all shifting toward a Nino forming over summer?

 

EDIT: Agreed reef but if it is there at least it's one piece of the puzzle you know about?

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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Indeed, I'm not convinced by the forecasts at the moment, nearly all are going for Neutral/weak El Nino conditions over the coming year, the only exception it seems being UKMO.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html

 

Previous years:

 

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

I don't think you can read much into them with regards to how winters/summers might turn out here. Both strong El Nino and La Nina both show examples of good and bad summers/winters. Its just a small piece of the puzzle.

 

 

As an average i don't think there's a massive difference in summer prospects between the two however all 18C+ summer months since 1950 have occurred in +MEI conditions bar 4 of them (last year being one).

 

I wonder if that is the PDO sway SB? The southern hemisphere have been impacted by 'nino like' conditions esp. over Australia with the SO showing positive there this past 2 years?

 

Anyhoos, each year is a year closer to the next one isn't it? As it is forecast ( as JH linked to) are all shifting toward a Nino forming over summer?

 

EDIT: Agreed reef but if it is there at least it's one piece of the puzzle you know about?

 

The SOI has an inverse correlation to ENSO, the fact it's positive is actually an indication that the atmosphere is behaving in a La Nina like state likely backed by the PDO.

 

The closest we last got was spring 2012 so it's possible but it came to nothing, i'm still not convinced it will this time.

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Posted Image

 

Looks pretty convincing also?

 

We also have these guys working on a novel long term forecasting system for Nino ( to increase lead warnings);

 

http://news.imau.nl/?p=1056

 

with this 'P.S.'

 

PS: Based on anomalously low sea surface temperatures in the southwestern Indian Ocean north of Madagascar (see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml), I predict the evolution of a big El Niño in the Pacific that will peak around January 2015. We have an ongoing fight to get our analysis published. Predicting El Niño more then 1.5 yr in advance is considered as controversial. The 2015 El Niño will prove we are right….

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Posted Image

 

Looks pretty convincing also?

 

We also have these guys working on a novel long term forecasting system for Nino ( to increase lead warnings);

 

http://news.imau.nl/?p=1056

 

with this 'P.S.'

 

PS: Based on anomalously low sea surface temperatures in the southwestern Indian Ocean north of Madagascar (see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml), I predict the evolution of a big El Niño in the Pacific that will peak around January 2015. We have an ongoing fight to get our analysis published. Predicting El Niño more then 1.5 yr in advance is considered as controversial. The 2015 El Niño will prove we are right….

 

That's also predicting a very strong +ve PDO, which would be quite a turnaround. Something else to keep an eye on anyway.

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Thanks for that BFTV! That is another thing I've been pondering recently over on the enviro threads? I suppose it depends on where you see the incept date for -ve beginning? The clearest one is 98' after the last 'Super' but some authorities have it back in the mid 80's??? Some folk would even seem to want it starting in the late noughties???

 

With  PDO's it's always advisable to wait until after the phase is ended before you decide when it began and ended esp. since we're told warming has been impacting them since the early 80's?

 

As it is that persistent high in the N.Pacific has sst's ( as you've already noted elsewhere?) looking more PDO+ve  than the 'cold horse shoe' of a PDO-ve?

 

As an add in we're also told that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is about to flip into it's warm surface phase ( from it's deep ocean warmth phase) just to add into the mix? With this solar cycle seeming to have more peaks than a meringue it appears we might suddenly see all the planets drivers flip positive !(LOL) 

 

Set against this the potential for the Nino setting up in 14/15 would appear quite natural?

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Winter 2014/15 looking dodgy already!? Wouldn't surprise me unfortunately.....

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Thanks for that BFTV! That is another thing I've been pondering recently over on the enviro threads? I suppose it depends on where you see the incept date for -ve beginning? The clearest one is 98' after the last 'Super' but some authorities have it back in the mid 80's??? Some folk would even seem to want it starting in the late noughties???

 

With  PDO's it's always advisable to wait until after the phase is ended before you decide when it began and ended esp. since we're told warming has been impacting them since the early 80's?

 

As it is that persistent high in the N.Pacific has sst's ( as you've already noted elsewhere?) looking more PDO+ve  than the 'cold horse shoe' of a PDO-ve?

 

As an add in we're also told that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is about to flip into it's warm surface phase ( from it's deep ocean warmth phase) just to add into the mix? With this solar cycle seeming to have more peaks than a meringue it appears we might suddenly see all the planets drivers flip positive !(LOL) 

 

Set against this the potential for the Nino setting up in 14/15 would appear quite natural?

 

Thanks for that BFTV! That is another thing I've been pondering recently over on the enviro threads? I suppose it depends on where you see the incept date for -ve beginning? The clearest one is 98' after the last 'Super' but some authorities have it back in the mid 80's??? Some folk would even seem to want it starting in the late noughties???

 

With  PDO's it's always advisable to wait until after the phase is ended before you decide when it began and ended esp. since we're told warming has been impacting them since the early 80's?

 

As it is that persistent high in the N.Pacific has sst's ( as you've already noted elsewhere?) looking more PDO+ve  than the 'cold horse shoe' of a PDO-ve?

 

As an add in we're also told that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is about to flip into it's warm surface phase ( from it's deep ocean warmth phase) just to add into the mix? With this solar cycle seeming to have more peaks than a meringue it appears we might suddenly see all the planets drivers flip positive !(LOL) 

 

Set against this the potential for the Nino setting up in 14/15 would appear quite natural?

 

In regards to the PDO i agree with the data which says neutral-negative. If you split the Pacific into 4 then only the north eastern quadrant goes against a -PDO.

 

Posted Image

 

Possible but dependent on a series of not very predictable factors.

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In regards to the PDO i agree with the data which says neutral-negative. If you split the Pacific into 4 then only the north eastern quadrant goes against a -PDO.

 

Posted Image

 

Possible but dependent on a series of not very predictable factors.

 

I find the new version of the chart works better. Slightly above average in the chart you used is light blue, which can be a little misleading.

Posted Image

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Looking a bit more 'super' in this forecast ( yesterdays)? and this;

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usCFSv2tmp2mSeas.html

 

certainly looks 'nino'ed' for JJA?

 

EDIT: Looking at the ensembles are we all seeing what happens in Aug??? That second spurt looks like it could really spell trouble?

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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Posted Image

Looking a bit more 'super' in this forecast ( yesterdays)? and this;

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usCFSv2tmp2mSeas.html

 

certainly looks 'nino'ed' for JJA?

 

EDIT: Looking at the ensembles are we all seeing what happens in Aug??? That second spurt looks like it could really spell trouble?

 

While we can't discount the possibility of a Nino i strongly suspect your being far too bullish with regards to a 'super' Nino on the scale of 97 or 83, instead something like 06 or 09 is probably the strongest we should expect to get if Nino comes to fruition.

 

The fact that the mean is fairly bullish is encouraging (i'd rather have a Nino summer than not) but you can see below that models on the whole have tended to be on the bullish side..

 

Posted Image

 

In addition, unless there's been an update i'm pretty sure current forecasts suggest less than a 50% of Nino and neutral the likely outcome.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html

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I just think the odds are shortening for both nino and Super Nino with every year that passes SB? Not scientific I know but , in the end, it will occur! As it is the much needed 'pineapple express' ,bringing rains to west coast USA ( and much needed snow to the mountains) has reduced that high to the north of the pacific. Though I know it is forecast to rebuild could it further reduce the trades and set in motion a surge of warmer waters further east? Like any dam break will it take a small breach to allow the rest to come flooding through?

 

The warmth we see in the West pacific seems to hint that another modoki event is not on the cards so it may be that we just see , and feel, the impacts of a 'normal' Nino even if not super that will be novel!!!

 

As an aside there are times i wonder about the climate machine. We see an atmospheric event and forecast a response below. Does the machine run backwards as well with physical changes driving changes aloft or is it all just a 1 way street of atmospheric influences driving physical changes below? It might seem an odd question but if man is altering this world how long before certain climate patterns fall prey to 'the changes'? how long before ocean warmth overtakes the variation that signals this phase ( of this or that) and another?

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Latest wrap-up from BOM

 

ENSO expected to remain neutral at least through autumn

Issued on Tuesday 11 February 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

 

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state is neutral, with climate models suggesting neutral conditions will persist at least until the end of the austral autumn. However, some warming of the Pacific is likely in the coming months.

 

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will warm through the austral autumn and winter. Some, but not all, models indicate central Pacific Ocean temperatures may approach El Niño levels by early winter. Model outlooks that span autumn tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, hence long-range outlooks should be used cautiously at this point. Neither neutral nor El Niño states can be discounted for the second half of 2014.

 

In the last fortnight, a westerly wind event over the far western tropical Pacific led to some warming beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, though surface temperatures remain close to average. The current high values of the SOI are expected to reduce as recent volatile weather near Darwin and Tahiti eases.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate from December to April.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

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http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/02/07/1323058111

 

" Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood. We also discuss the relevance of the next El Niño to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature."

 

With the dutch Uni's efforts and now this ( all new approaches) are we still doubting the strong chance of a Nino later in the year?

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http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/02/07/1323058111

 

" Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood. We also discuss the relevance of the next El Niño to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature."

 

With the dutch Uni's efforts and now this ( all new approaches) are we still doubting the strong chance of a Nino later in the year?

 

Yes. Neutral-warm or weak are the likely outcomes for me.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014-february-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

 

49% chance of Nino for the ASO period.

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http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/02/07/1323058111

 

" Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood. We also discuss the relevance of the next El Niño to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature."

 

With the dutch Uni's efforts and now this ( all new approaches) are we still doubting the strong chance of a Nino later in the year?

 

A little more on this

 

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/study-sounds-el-nino-alarm-for-2014-17052

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I've been checking the unisys SST maps daily over the last few weeks and there's been a big warm up in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, (Nino 4 and 3.4 regions) over the last few days.

 

Posted Image

 

This could be some normal variability, or it could be the beginning of a shift towards more +ve conditions. Either way, it's something to watch over the coming week.

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I think that this might be an indicator of just how much water is bottled up in the East Pacific for such a small drop in the Trades to allow a minor wave back west? Come spring, and the impacts of the ITCZ hauling it's botty over the equator, I'm expecting the dam to break and flood of warm heading back west to instigate the formation of the Nino. 

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Again i urge caution..

 

This was the end of March last year which came to very little..

 

Posted Image

 

This was sufficient to impact the atmosphere (MEI recorded a moderate Nino value) but it lasted all of 2-3 months.

 

Posted Image

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Again i urge caution..

 

This was the end of March last year which came to very little..

 

Posted Image

 

This was sufficient to impact the atmosphere (MEI recorded a moderate Nino value) but it lasted all of 2-3 months.

 

Posted Image

 

Of course, caution should be maintained. Interesting how much stronger the -ve PDO signature was in those years.

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Of course, caution should be maintained. Interesting how much stronger the -ve PDO signature was in those years.

 

That's true although the melt in late spring will probably make ours look more defined.

 

...

 

One thing i have noticed is that our ENSO/QBO cycles seem to be off. Historically El Nino tends to occur with a +QBO and visa versa but we've had many mismatches since 2009.

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