E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Don]

 damianslaw Yes, if we get a super cold winter, it will no doubt come when least expected! 

[damianslaw]

 Don 2024-25 here we come then!

[Don]

 damianslaw And with it being unexpected would make it all the better! 

[raz.org.rain]

 Don if localised SSTs drop low enough and we get a negative AO soon it could stand a chance of being a hot summer followed by a cold winter, sounds very continental.

[Don]

 raz.org.rain Well, you never know!  However, I'm not sure a negative AO would bode too well for a hot summer?  I would think the Jet stream could be on a more southerly track across the UK, rather than to the north?  However, if the NAO was to remain neutral or positive, then it could be a hot summer still?

Edited March 22 by Don

[raz.org.rain]

 Don whoops, that should be -NAO and not -AO. I was thinking of it the wrong way... it looks like the NAO has been trending strongly positive over the past few months after being negative for most of last year.

[Don]

 raz.org.rain A positive NAO would bode well for a hot summer.

[summer blizzard]

Down to -5 at the sub-surface.

[karyo]

Accuweather has issued their forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. A combination of a warm Atlantic and a developing La Nina is expected to give a lot of fuel to the hurricane season.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/94d900bc-eae8-49f2-bdf5-09e2aace931a?utm_source=connatix&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=link

[summer blizzard]

20MAR2024: Nino3: 1.0, Nino3.4: 1.3, Nino4: 0.9

27MAR2024: Nino3: 0.9, Nino3.4: 1.0, Nino4: 0.8

March ONI fell to +1.2.

Edited April 2 by summer blizzard

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[summer blizzard]

03APR2024: Nino3: 1.0, Nino3.4: 1.2, Nino4: 0.9

[summer blizzard]

10APR2024: Nino3: 0.6, Nino3.4: 0.9, Nino4: 0.7

[SqueakheartLW]

Warmth is persisting and slightly increasing in the western Pacific and the El Nino is hanging on very well although has become a very modoki event now.

Nino 4                                                      Nino 3.4

Nino 3                                                      Nino 1+2

Anomalies                                                 7 day anomaly change

Are we sure we are heading to La Nina or are we going to set up a 2nd year Nino and a modoki event for winter 2024/25?

[cheeky_monkey]

 SqueakheartLW looking at previous La Nina and how they developed from an El Nino im 90% sure we are heading into a La Nina..the set up and the cooling is very similar to previous transitions 

[summer blizzard]

 SqueakheartLW

Current warmth is surface level and looks likely to be replaced.

[summer blizzard]

17APR2024: Nino3: 0.5, Nino3.4: 0.7, Nino4: 0.8