E.N.S.O. Discussion

[al78]

IRI ENSO forecasts suggest a slow weakening of La Nina back to neutral by summer/autumn. Skill at this lead is low due to the Spring predictability barrier.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-iri_plume

 

[summer blizzard]

NOAA probabilities are now 50%+ that La Nina will persist through JJA (summer).

Edited March 21, 2022 by summer blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

NOAA probabilities are now 50%+ that La Nina will persist through JJA (summer).

Wet second half of August??

[summer blizzard]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Wet second half of August??

Anecdotally (not sure if it's backed by statistics) recent La Nina August's have tended to be poor. 

Third year Nina summers for reference are 56, 75, 85, 00. 

[SqueakheartLW]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Anecdotally (not sure if it's backed by statistics) recent La Nina August's have tended to be poor. 

Third year Nina summers for reference are 56, 75, 85, 00. 

Don't remember the 56, 75 or 85 summers but I do remember 00 and it was a poor summer from what I remember leading into the wettest autumn on record. Hope that isn't a bad omen for autumn 2022 if we do end up with a 3rd year La Nina.

Not such a bad signal for winter however as 2000/01 was one of the better ones in the time period of the 1990/91 to 2007/08 period although definitely beaten for cold and snow by 1990/91, 1995/96 and 1996/97

[summer blizzard]

34 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Don't remember the 56, 75 or 85 summers but I do remember 00 and it was a poor summer from what I remember leading into the wettest autumn on record. Hope that isn't a bad omen for autumn 2022 if we do end up with a 3rd year La Nina.

Not such a bad signal for winter however as 2000/01 was one of the better ones in the time period of the 1990/91 to 2007/08 period although definitely beaten for cold and snow by 1990/91, 1995/96 and 1996/97

A quick check suggests that 56 and 85 were horrific, 00 poor but 75 was actually a good summer.

 

[karyo]

So we could have another active hurricane season.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 21/03/2022 at 16:55, feb1991blizzard said:

Wet second half of August??

CFS has troughing around the UK Jun-Aug. 

Makes sense I guess if La Nina persists.

Ironically it sees August as the best month at the moment- 2007 vibes about the output

Edited March 24, 2022 by CreweCold

[SqueakheartLW]

What happened to the chance of El Nino appearing later this year?

This developing sub surface profile is suggesting otherwise and if this persists then a CP La Nina is looking quite likely later this year, totally the opposite of what was initially predicted to happen.

CFS says La Nina all the way today

Edited March 24, 2022 by SqueakheartLW

[summer blizzard]

09MAR2022: Nino3: -0.8 , Nino3.4: -1.0 , Nino4: -0.7

16MAR2022: Nino3: -0.6 , Nino3.4: -0.9 , Nino4: -0.8

[summer blizzard]

23MAR2022: Nino3: -0.5 , Nino3.4: -0.9 , Nino4: -0.8

[summer blizzard]

30MAR2022: Nino3: -0.6 , Nino3.4: -0.7 , Nino4: -0.6

March ONI came in around -0.9 as did the JFM ONI. 

[mb018538]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Not liking the look of the latest ENSO forecast from yesterday...

Summary:

La Niña is present.

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the east/central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña.

La Niña is favoured to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Latest CFS shows La Nina staying close to -1c for the entire Northern Hemisphere summer now....which for us in the UK is a probably a bit of a disaster if you'd like a nice summer.

[summer blizzard]

Curtosy of Chuck in another realm.

[summer blizzard]

06APR2022: Nino3: -0.7 , Nino3.4: -0.9 , Nino4: -0.8

[Methuselah]

41 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

06APR2022: Nino3: -0.7 , Nino3.4: -0.9 , Nino4: -0.8

Arsenal 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion

[cheeky_monkey]

On 05/04/2022 at 00:55, mb018538 said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Not liking the look of the latest ENSO forecast from yesterday...

Summary:

La Niña is present.

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the east/central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña.

La Niña is favoured to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (53% chance during June-August 2022), with a 40-50% chance of La Niña or ENSO neutral thereafter.

Latest CFS shows La Nina staying close to -1c for the entire Northern Hemisphere summer now....which for us in the UK is a probably a bit of a disaster if you'd like a nice summer.

Interestingly last time i could see where they were back to back to back La Nina was 1974-76 which obviously included the summers of 1975 and 1976..so maybe all is not lost if you want a nice UK summer

[summer blizzard]

10 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Interestingly last time i could see where they were back to back to back La Nina was 1974-76 which obviously included the summers of 1975 and 1976..so maybe all is not lost if you want a nice UK summer

ONI for Q2 and Q3 76 averaged -0.25 and +0.25 so Nina was dead by then. 1976 was a full Nina to Nino flip year.

00, 75 and 56 were the last time we saw Q3 third year events persisting.

 

[Don]

On 05/04/2022 at 07:55, mb018538 said:

Latest CFS shows La Nina staying close to -1c for the entire Northern Hemisphere summer now....which for us in the UK is a probably a bit of a disaster if you'd like a nice summer.

The way the climate is nowadays, who knows what this means for summer?  The goal posts appear to have been moved in recent years when it comes to teleconnections!

[Methuselah]

20 minutes ago, Don said:

The way the climate is nowadays, who knows what this means for summer?  The goal posts appear to have been moved in recent years when it comes to teleconnections!

Seasonal prognostication relies too much on real but tenuous links. I think? And, the further back in time the 'analogue years' are, the more they relate to quite different climate/weather patterns? Which is why I (either rightly or wrongly) tend to ignore such predictions . . . 

[summer blizzard]

37 minutes ago, Don said:

The way the climate is nowadays, who knows what this means for summer?  The goal posts appear to have been moved in recent years when it comes to teleconnections!

Can you elaborate on why you think the goal posts have changed.

[Methuselah]

4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Seasonal prognostication relies too much on real but tenuous links. I think? And, the further back in time the 'analogue years' are, the more they relate to quite different climate/weather patterns? Which is why I (either rightly or wrongly) tend to ignore such predictions . . . 

It's only fair that I should back that claim up with something:

 

[summer blizzard]

Will update the figures when I can copy and paste but region 1.2 saw the lowest April value since 1982.

[SqueakheartLW]

Looking like La Nina is coming back into full swing once again and if this continues it would seem the entirety of 2022 could be under a La Nina

That has been quite a shift in the eastern Pacific in particular

Nino 4

Nino 4 has warmed in recent months from its low point in March when at that point the SST anomalies looked as if an EP El Nino was starting to get underway

At this point I thought the predictions of an El Nino appearing ready for winter 2022/23 were full on and correct but everything that has happened since appears to have gone against this trend

Nino 3.4

Nino 3.4 has remained relatively stable between -0.5 and -1.0C below normal really for the whole of this year so far and this is one of the factors that has been fighting against the possible formation of an El Nino and in fact we have seen a gradual cooling in the last couple of weeks, a sign that La Nina is very much in force and is looking to remain that way.

Nino 3

After the low point of Nino 3 early this year this region went through a steady warming until back into ENSO Neutral territory so ending the EP La Nina from the winter at least although as Nino 3.4 is the official measurement region then this Nino 3 doesn't count towards the anomaly that defines the La Nina although I think all the regions are important and play a part, especially Nino 4 and Nino 3 which define whether the La Nina is CP based (Nino 4 colder anomaly than Nino 3), Mixed (Nino 4 and 3 roughly the same anomaly) or EP based (Nino 3 colder than Nino 4).

Recently we have seen a bit of a drop in the Nino 3 anomaly, to such a degree that the EP La Nina has returned once more. This to me is the sign of a development and therefore continuation of the La Nina which has in general remained really since 2020 if you count all cold anomalies present since then.

Nino 1+2

Perhaps the most dramatic change has taken place in Nino 1+2 after the dizzy heights of it's brief El Nino showing back in March when I thought the La Nina was coming to an end and we would be entering El Nino as the year progressed. How wrong that was as Nino 1+2 has crashed in terms of anomalies, particularly in recent days and is almost borderline Super La Nina now. Wonder if the next daily figure to come in will dip below -2C on the anomaly scale.

[summer blizzard]

13APR2022: Nino3: -0.9 , Nino3.4: -0.9 , Nino4: -0.7