South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 07/02/14

[Callie]

Wow thunder and lightning here now!

[Sussex Jules]

Loads of thunder and lightning and hail. Road is white. Knocked out power for 5 - 10 minutes just about how long it took to find the torches!

[Mal_UK]

This is crazy!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-26102776

 

100s of people flocked to Porthleven to watch the waves. Police had to close the road at one point!

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Jax]

Well I bailed out meeting the family (would have been a walk for me) due to the conditions out, wind is a battering one, rain has remained quite absent though so far.

[steveinsussex]

Hardly a breeze right here now, its really very quiet

 

Strange

[Callie]

Loads of thunder and lightning and hail. Road is white. Knocked out power for 5 - 10 minutes just about how long it took to find the torches!

 

My lights flickered here and the lightning was so yellow!!

[Jax]

Stopping in and remaining low whilst the weather retains this wind and such.

[Tilly]

Evening all

I can't keep up with current conditions, was going crazy a min ago and now it's peaceful as anything. Got my camera set up incase we get some T&L. Hope everyone is having a good evening. I'm having my first beer in a long long time so rather enjoying myself

[tinybill]

looks  like Kent Essex ,Suffolk got to batten down  to-night  storm force wind   to-night stay safe

 

Thames

Gale warnings - Issued: 0942 UTC Sat 08 Feb

Severe gale force 9 veering southwesterly and increasing storm force 10 later

Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1625 UTC Sat 08 Feb Wind Southwest gale 8 to storm 10. Sea State Rough or very rough. Weather Squally showers. Visibility Moderate, occasionally good.

[Lauren]

Still nada.

[Keraunic]

Seems to have gone very quiet here now. I'm going out for a rollie so we shall see.

[Methuselah]

No rain as yet, but the wind is picking up.

[fluid dynamic]

Gone quiet here

That all you got Ruth ?

[Summer of 76]

Wind really picking up here with some really strong gusts

[alexisj9]

Gone quiet hereThat all you got Ruth ?

Too many people are saying it's gone quiet, I really don't like the feeling I'm getting from that, which is calm before the storm. I don't know why it's just what keeps coming into my head every time I have read those words this evening. Still gusty here, still under that band of showers so it could be that.

[Keraunic]

Too many people are saying it's gone quiet, I really don't like the feeling I'm getting from that, which is calm before the storm. I don't know why it's just what keeps coming into my head every time I have read those words this evening. Still gusty here, still under that band of showers so it could be that.

Yup.....I get that feeling as well. Especially reading Tiny Bills post above. It's all a bit grim. :O

[Steve C]

Referring to the XCWeather site, I'd say the strongest winds are likely to be around 3 in the morning. Near gale to gale force all around the coasts and some way inland, with strong (force 6) winds even further inland.

 

Very windy, yes, but nothing to really worry about for most people.

 

 http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast

Edited February 8, 2014 by Steve C

[Tom Quintavalle]

Have just been in contact with Ian Currie again regarding organising some talks for NW members from the SE region.

 

I'll just post up a few background facts about Mr.Currie.

 

"Dont know how many of you have read some of Ian Currie's books, or indeed some of you may have heard him on Radio London and LBC, where he had a weekly weather forecasting slot, for a while, some years ago. You may well have heard his Radio 4 programme, based on his book Frost, Freezes and Fairs or seen him forecasting on Cable TV.

 

Many of you may well have read the excellent series of County Weather books, based on major weather events in Essex, Kent, Surrey, Sussex, etc, which Ian Currie was the co-author of.I contacted him with the view of attending some of his weather related talks, as he is involved in the Meteorological branch of the Croydon Natural History and Scientific Society. Also I wanted to try and get a couple of copies of those County Weather books, as they are mostly out of print now."

 

And now the post from the 31st Jan after Tamara and myself met Ian Currie, the week before.

 

" We met him again on Thursday and have a few locations in mind that hopefully will be convenient for quite a few members to attend. We suggested to Ian that it would be preferable to hold 2 talks, one north of the Thames and one south of the river, to give members the oppurtunity to get to either one, as the region is so large. Locations north of the Thames, probably just north of London, Herts/Essex border say and the southern talk somewhere like Tonbridge/Tunbridge Wells f.e. We'd probably be looking at late Spring/early Summer now, as he has talks already arranged for the early part of Spring.

If any members would be interested in coming along to these talks, given the locations and timescale mentioned, could you please P.M. me, to let me know. Obviously Mr.Currie would like to have an idea of numbers involved, once we have an idea then we can be more specific about location and dates of these talks."

 

Tonight I asked Ian if he could let me have a list of talks that are open to the general public, that he's due to give throughout the S.E. region, for a month beginning next weekend 15th Feb until the middle of March. These would be apart from anything we could arrange specifically for NW members for the S.E. region, further on into the year, it would give those of you the chance to attend if there were any close to your area. I'll let all of you know of any, as soon as Mr.Currie gets back to me.

 

Ian also asked me to relay the following stats recorded at his weather station, regarding this exceptional spell of weather, that we've had, which started around the 12th December. His weather station is at Old Coulsdon in Surrey.

 

- Since the 12th December he has recorded 1/2 metre of rainfall, after this evenings showers, 502 mms to     be precise!

 

- The average yearly rainfall averaged out over the London area is around 540 mms, just to give a idea of         how wet it's been. (Although Old Coulsdon lies quite high up on the N.Downs and its average annual             rainfall is around 750 mms or so)

 

- Jan. 2014 was the wettest month ever recorded in the area at 235 mms, beating the 231 mms                       recorded in Sept 1968. Records go back well over 200 years. 

 

- This Winter will turn out to be the wettest for well over 200 years in London, Surrey, W.Kent and                   certainly in other parts of the S.E too.

 

- He has already recorded 70 mms in this first week of Feb., the average for the whole of Feb. for Old             Coulsdon is 57.4 mms.

 

- Jan 2014 was the most thundery Jan., for over 100 years, in his area, 4 thunder days recorded. 7                   thunder days recorded so far, this Winter.

 

Ian was also suggesting that he thought that this spell of weather was was a truly exceptional weather event, probably surpassing the Oct.1987 storm, the Summer of 1976 and indeed the most severest of Winters of the 20th Century and the one this Century. He also felt that the full implications of this prolonged wet spell wouldnt be felt for a while yet, as that rainfall has still to permeate through the river systems.

 

He commented on the problems facing the river catchment area around Caterham, Whyteleafe and Kenley and how this could have serious consequences.The Pumping Station at Kenley is having severe problems coping with the amount of water in the area, after the River Bourne had burst its banks, which could affect the water supply to 47,000 homes.

 

Although Mr.Currie felt that by the end of Feb. the weather would improve and turn drier but colder, this could then in turn cause fresh problems, as buildings and infrastructure, in general, are so sodden after this exceptional wet spell, that any severe frosts could cause a lot of damage to structures, due to freeze/thaw action and very costly to the economy.

 

The impression I got was that Mr.Currie felt that Joe Public and Authorities in general were not generally aware of a very serious problem, waiting to happen, (it has already in some parts of the country), especially as we still havnt seen the last of the wet weather, probably for a while yet. 

 

Regards,

Tom.

Edited February 8, 2014 by Kentish CZ

[Steve C]

Yup.....I get that feeling as well. Especially reading Tiny Bills post above. It's all a bit grim.

 

I wouldn't fret too much, as it's referring to winds over the open sea. 

 

Here is the equivalent for sea area 'Wight' which I think is for our coastal area west of about Eastbourne.

 

Gale warnings - Issued: 2142 UTC Fri 7 Feb

 

Gale force 8 now backed southerly, increasing severe gale force 9 imminent then veering southwesterly soon and increasing storm force 10 later

 

Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1625 UTC Sat 8 Feb Wind Southwesterly gale 8 to storm 10, decreasing 5 to 7.

 

Sea state High or very high.

 

Weather Squally showers. Visibility Moderate.

 

That sea state will create some very impressive waves. If I lived in the vicinity, I'd be out with my camera at first light in the morning.

Edited February 8, 2014 by Steve C

[Iceni]

Tamara or John - just rang my Dad and they've bought a window to be installed in their sitting room next week - it's really dark in there.

 

Work was due to start on Monday but I implored him to put it off until the weather's calmed down - especially Tuesday. What I need to know is what about that 'rapid cyclogenesis low on our doorstep" low Tamara mentioned a couple of days ago. I don't want them to have a 4'x 6' hole on a SW facing wall next week.

 

Anyone help?

[Steve C]

I'd probably be interested in meeting Ian Currie, Tom.

[abruzzi spur]

Have just been in contact with Ian Currie again regarding organising some talks for NW members from the SE region.

 

I'll just post up a few background facts about Mr.Currie.

 

"Dont know how many of you have read some of Ian Currie's books, or indeed some of you may have heard him on Radio London and LBC, where he had a weekly weather forecasting slot, for a while, some years ago. You may well have heard his Radio 4 programme, based on his book Frost, Freezes and Fairs or seen him forecasting on Cable TV.

 

Many of you may well have read the excellent series of County Weather books, based on major weather events in Essex, Kent, Surrey, Sussex, etc, which Ian Currie was the co-author of.I contacted him with the view of attending some of his weather related talks, as he is involved in the Meteorological branch of the Croydon Natural History and Scientific Society. Also I wanted to try and get a couple of copies of those County Weather books, as they are mostly out of print now."

 

And now the post from the 31st Jan after Tamara and myself met Ian Currie, the week before.

 

" We met him again on Thursday and have a few locations in mind that hopefully will be convenient for quite a few members to attend. We suggested to Ian that it would be preferable to hold 2 talks, one north of the Thames and one south of the river, to give members the oppurtunity to get to either one, as the region is so large. Locations north of the Thames, probably just north of London, Herts/Essex border say and the southern talk somewhere like Tonbridge/Tunbridge Wells f.e. We'd probably be looking at late Spring/early Summer now, as he has talks already arranged for the early part of Spring.

If any members would be interested in coming along to these talks, given the locations and timescale mentioned, could you please P.M. me, to let me know. Obviously Mr.Currie would like to have an idea of numbers involved, once we have an idea then we can be more specific about location and dates of these talks."

 

Tonight I asked Ian if he could let me have a list of talks that are open to the general public, that he's due to give throughout the S.E. region, for a month beginning next weekend 15th Feb until the middle of March. These would be apart from anything we could arrange specifically for NW members for the S.E. region, further on into the year, it would give those of you the chance to attend if there were any close to your area. I'll let all of you know of any, as soon as Mr.Currie gets back to me.

 

Ian also asked me to relay the following stats recorded at his weather station, regarding this exceptional spell of weather, that we've had, which started around the 12th December. His weather station is at Old Coulsdon in Surrey.

 

- Since the 12th December he has recorded 1/2 metre of rainfall, after this evenings showers, 502 mms to     be precise!

 

- The average yearly rainfall averaged out over the London area is around 540 mms, just to give a idea of         how wet it's been. (Although Old Coulsdon lies quite high up on the N.Downs and its average annual             rainfall is around 750 mms or so)

 

- Jan. 2014 was the wettest month ever recorded in the area at 235 mms, beating the 231 mms                       recorded in Sept 1968. Records go back well over 200 years. 

 

- This Winter will turn out to be the wettest for well over 200 years in London, Surrey, W.Kent and                   certainly in other parts of the S.E too.

 

- He has already recorded 70 mms in this first week of Feb., the average for the whole of Feb. for Old             Coulsdon is 57.4 mms.

 

- Jan 2014 was the most thundery Jan., for over 100 years, in his area, 4 thunder days recorded. 7                   thunder days recorded so far, this Winter.

 

Ian was also suggesting that he thought that this spell of weather was was a truly exceptional weather event, probably surpassing the Oct.1987 storm, the Summer of 1976 and indeed the most severest of Winters of the 20th Century and the one this Century. He also felt that the full implications of this prolonged wet spell wouldnt be felt for a while yet, as that rainfall has still to permeate through the river systems.

 

He commented on the problems facing the river catchment area around Caterham, Whyteleafe and Kenley and how this could have serious consequences.The Pumping Station at Kenley is having severe problems coping with the amount of water in the area, after the River Bourne had burst its banks, which could affect the water supply to 47,000 homes.

 

Although Mr.Currie felt that by the end of Feb. the weather would improve and turn drier but colder, this could then in turn cause fresh problems, as buildings and infrastructure, in general, are so sodden after this exceptional wet spell, that any severe frosts could cause a lot of damage to structures, due to freeze/thaw action and very costly to the economy.

 

The impression I got was that Mr.Currie felt that Joe Public and Authorities in general were not generally aware of a very serious problem, waiting to happen, (it has already in some parts of the country), especially as we still havnt seen the last of the wet weather, probably for a while yet. 

 

Regards,

Tom.

Hi Tom, I may have mentioned before that Ian Currie is the weatherman in our local weekly paper the Surrey Mirror, in fact by and large his posts are the only thing worth reading!  He also has the courage to do a yearly projection. The risk must be that for his weekly forecasts they could be out of date  as soon as the paper is out, however my experience is that he is more often right than wrong. The Surrey Mirror comes out on a Thursday and sometimes I save up the excitement and don't buy it until Saturday, maybe even Sunday, and I'm often struck by how accurate the forecasts are even several days on.  Would be great to go to a talk.

 

Thanks

 

AS

[john pike]

hi iceni

 

look at this fax at 60

 

see the low over the west of ireland

 

 

 

 

problem with this low is it may shift south and hit france

 

then head north east

 

or it may hit us overnight tuesday

 

if it does with the cold air in place we could see some strong winds and poss heavy rain or snow in some areas

 

its a call which is tricky to make

 

my thoughts are it looks to cross us overnight tuesday looking at the fax charts but hopefully a better idea will be had tomorrow night

[lottiekent]

I think most of us can relate to this..

http://xkcd.com/1324/