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South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 05/02/14 16z -------------->


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Track of Wednesdays storm has been revised further north now leaving west country out of worst area.

Worth noting that we are still forecast 50/60mph gusts widely (probably higher on exposed Bristol Channel coasts too) which will still cause issues though. Thankfully, the highest gusts further north but 50/60mph gusts and upto 50mm of rain over the next 48hrs is little consolation and still stormy in my book.Wouldn't bet against further changes either, for better or worse. Edited by AWD
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South east looks a little dry I hope they don't get hose pipe bans at this rate. Posted Image

 

And what falls in the West flows East too. Nobody is immune right now I reckon. Unless you're half way up a mountain like your good self. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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And what falls in the West flows East too. Nobody is immune right now I reckon.

 

Hmm not sure about that statement?

 

so rain that falls on the mendips, Exmoor, levels and bristol etc flows east towards London and south east? I thought it headed to sea at its quickest available route depending on geography of land. Posted Image

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Hmm not sure about that statement?

 

so rain that falls on the mendips, Exmoor, levels and bristol etc flows east towards London and south east? I thought it headed to sea at its quickest available route depending on geography of land. Posted Image

 

Yes in parts I guess it would, and I guess it's more likely those extreme conditions over Wales in recent days (70mm plus in 36 hours) has exacerbated the river flows towards the Thames Valley. Yet another region where we could do with seeing less of the liquid stuff.

 

Whatever, I'm still looking towards the light as I'm sure are many.

 

Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Yes in parts I guess it would, and I guess it's more likely those extreme conditions over Wales in recent days (70mm plus in 36 hours) has exacerbated the river flows towards the Thames Valley. Yet another region where we could do with seeing less of the liquid stuff.

 

Whatever, I'm still looking towards the light as I'm sure are many.

 

Posted Image

 

I see your point. However rain in wales flows mostly down towards river severn I think on the English side. The Thames river catchment starts around the south of Cotswold I think around Cirencester.

 

I was expecting more rain to be honest from this mornings feature, with this northwards movement of the low I guess that also means less wintry element to our rain also in next day or two?

 

Who else will be hanging around tonight to see if we get our possible once in a winter event? 

Edited by mullender83
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Who else will be hanging around tonight to see if we get our possible once in a winter event? 

 

If I have the stamina I may well. I'm still uncertain as to where we go after this week, I see some dry weather hopefully rearing its head but even then it will be only the odd few days amongst the more general rain and snow at elevation. Will things turn colder or will we get milder is my next pressing question, if it turns milder I only see it bringing more moisture with it. Let's get to the end of the week and we may know more as to our fate for the rest of Meteorological Winter. Its all the fun of the chase I reckon.

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Latest forecast wind gusts on a "broad brush" scale for our area;

post-12721-0-34351400-1392117833_thumb.jpost-12721-0-48862000-1392117843_thumb.jpost-12721-0-86739000-1392117849_thumb.j

The slightly worrying thing being that the highest gusts will be coinciding with Weds evening rush hour for many. Widely 50mph gusts across a lot of the region with many coastal areas and high ground seeing gusts in excess of 60mph. Not a pleasent day to be standing under a tree.

Add to that this;

post-12721-0-73861900-1392117997_thumb.j

And it's looking decidedly precarious in many areas. Further afield and the next worry is for Friday.

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Going off AWD's post above, although we look set to avoid the worst of the winds, 65mph+ gusts are possible along the coast, which is still potentially damaging.

 

I've had 6.7 mm from that rain this morning, takes me to 69.1mm for the month, that could easily be doubled by the end of the week.

 

350.8mm for 2014 so far.

 

Beautiful blue skies atm, which makes a pleasant change.

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Warnings have been updated and parts of our region still under an Amber warning for wind;

post-12721-0-18904900-1392119413_thumb.j

Cornwall and parts of Devon under an amber warning for wind on Wednesday. Similiar to my map earlier except I had mine covering the Bristol Channel districts too, the Met Office don't.

All of our region is under a yellow warning for wind and rain on Wednesday though. Not out of the woods yet!

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Warnings have been updated and parts of our region still under an Amber warning for wind;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Cornwall and parts of Devon under an amber warning for wind on Wednesday. Similiar to my map earlier except I had mine covering the Bristol Channel districts too, the Met Office don't.

All of our region is under a yellow warning for wind and rain on Wednesday though. Not out of the woods yet!

 

From experience of the past features similar to this one, the track is difficult to predict, so could change still, be on guard is probably best practise. 

 

AWD, do you know where I can view possible forecast tracks for this storm?

Edited by karlos1983
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This is the latest descriptive text regarding the yellow warning from the Met Office which each and every one of us is under;

"A vigorous area of low pressure is expected to move northeastwards across the UK later on Wednesday, clearing eastwards early on Thursday. This is likely to be accompanied by a swathe of gales across many parts of England and Wales which may be severe in places. The public should be aware of the the risk of disruption to transport and possibly also power supplies."

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The forecasted winds here are actually on par with the strongest winds from previous storms/depressions.

This is what makes this a notable storm, the strongest of the winds will potentially be the strongest of the season so far, the widespread area at risk from damaging winds still looks significant in inland areas. This storm would be a big news maker but in light of what we've already had and the ongoing flooding, it just blends in to the saga for most people.

I'm still heading out to get some wind readings, need to pick a new place again. :)

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From experience of the past features similar to this one, the track is difficult to predict, so could change still, be on guard is probably best practise.

I agree mate, the track still has some degree of uncertainty about it. Even the Met Office say this in their warnings.However, even if things now come of as forecast, 50/60mph gusts accompanied with heavy rain will still have an adverse affect on our infrastructure and environment. Over the next 5 days as a whole, like Offerman says, rainfall accumulations and flooding is of the greatest concern. Edited by AWD
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The forecasted winds here are actually on par with the strongest winds from previous storms/depressions.

This is what makes this a notable storm, the strongest of the winds will potentially be the strongest of the season so far, the widespread area at risk from damaging winds still looks significant in inland areas. This storm would be a big news maker but in light of what we've already had and the ongoing flooding, it just blends in to the saga for most people.

I'm still heading out to get some wind readings, need to pick a new place again. Posted Image

 

The Beeb forecaster's references to this weekend's storm was also intriguing given that more focus will be put on what comes before. I think its probably something to do with its unusual track, right up from down South in the Mid Atlantic.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Warnings have been updated and parts of our region still under an Amber warning for wind;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Cornwall and parts of Devon under an amber warning for wind on Wednesday. Similiar to my map earlier except I had mine covering the Bristol Channel districts too, the Met Office don't.

All of our region is under a yellow warning for wind and rain on Wednesday though. Not out of the woods yet!

This is a bit od as the latest (12.09) Met office severe Weather alert for the SW shows it as downgraded to a yellow warning of wind, but the maps continue to show amber. I am taking the yellow warning as being the one intended and expect the maps to be adjusted shortly. That would align with BBC forecasts this morning showing the worst winds to be rather further North.

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Round up of the latest 06z EURO4 output.

Wednesday afternoon and evening continues with the stormy forecast. Gales and severe gales likely in various places throughout the region, with particular emphasis again on the Bristol Channel districts;

post-12721-0-21731400-1392121431_thumb.jpost-12721-0-17717200-1392121446_thumb.jpost-12721-0-14610000-1392121454_thumb.j

You can see why Cornwall and parts of Devon have an amber warning too, some very stormy conditions possible down there for a time on Wednesday.

Rainfall not as bad as the 0z but still far too much;

post-12721-0-62938600-1392121549_thumb.j

20/30mm widely adding to the serious conditions already present in some areas. Not good!

And finally something for the wintry lover. Wintry showers over the hills and moors today;

post-12721-0-44443900-1392121637_thumb.j

Followed by a wintry streamer setting up along the M4 corridor area early Thursday;

post-12721-0-07669300-1392121687_thumb.jpost-12721-0-14208500-1392121696_thumb.j

So all in all, a disturbed period of weather coming up. Further rainfall and flooding likely. Some tree and minor structural damage likely long with a test for the sea defences. Some wintry weather possible for a lucky few either side of Wednesdays storm.

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This is a bit od as the latest (12.09) Met office severe Weather alert for the SW shows it as downgraded to a yellow warning of wind, but the maps continue to show amber. I am taking the yellow warning as being the one intended and expect the maps to be adjusted shortly. That would align with BBC forecasts this morning showing the worst winds to be rather further North.

The maps have only recently been updated. Cornwall and parts of Devon/Dorset coastline are under an amber warning still;post-12721-0-53850700-1392122090_thumb.jThe latest BBC version too;post-12721-0-93787300-1392122256_thumb.j Edited by AWD
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