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Atlantic Storms February 2014


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Update from Estofex now too

 

http://estofex.org/

 

A level 1 was issued for southern Ireland, Wales and England mainly for severe wind gusts and to the lesser degree for tornadoes.

DISCUSSION... southern Ireland, Wales, England ...Yet another deep low pressure system is expected to affect the area. In the dry intrusion, behind the main stratiform rain shield, intense pressure gradient is simulated with 40 m/s windspeeds at 850 hPa level just south of the low center. Both ECMWF and GFS hint on some marginal instability build up in this zone. Intense forcing could support a strongly forced convective line, where convection (downdrafts) would contribute to the strength of the wind gusts, which should be already very strong (coastal areas over 130 km/h) due to the background situation. Level 1 seems to be warranted for this questionable setup for severe wind gusts. Tornadoes are not ruled out either, given the intense low level shear, though they might depend strongly on the convective mode (isolated cell vs convective line). Greatest threat should exist between 12 - 15 UTC.

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Looks like I picked the wrong day to arrange a meeting in Llandudno (10am) and then Llangefni on Anglsey at 2.30. Would guess it will be awful driving conditions (I'm not driving thankfully) and chance that by 2ish the bridges to Anglsey will be closed? Not planned but tomorrow could be a day in the middle of the worst of it. I will update as I go tomorrow. Leavening Shrewsbury at 8 and won't be back untill 8 so a full day on the road. I have packed some emergencey stuff for the trip extra food, fully charged phone, warm jumper just to be careful should the worst happen and we hit some bad conditions. Can't be too careful looking at the potential wind speeds, rain and even snow on the journey tomorrow.

My boss who's driving has to get to shrewsbury from Bromsgrove in the morning so he has the added issues of flooding in the Severn valley which means a detour around the M6/M54

Should be "fun" but can't help being a little worried about it all.

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Made a map for Wednesday showing each part of the country and when they can expect the worse of the winds. This is based off what the Met Office wind maps say and the GFS model as well.

 

Posted ImageMapWed.png

Fantastic post,and taking a 'blend' of guidance on offer from models and pros looks spot on,neither a ramp or a downplay.
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Looks like I picked the wrong day to arrange a meeting in Llandudno (10am) and then Llangefni on Anglsey at 2.30. Would guess it will be awful driving conditions (I'm not driving thankfully) and chance that by 2ish the bridges to Anglsey will be closed? Not planned but tomorrow could be a day in the middle of the worst of it. I will update as I go tomorrow. Leavening Shrewsbury at 8 and won't be back untill 8 so a full day on the road. I have packed some emergencey stuff for the trip extra food, fully charged phone, warm jumper just to be careful should the worst happen and we hit some bad conditions. Can't be too careful looking at the potential wind speeds, rain and even snow on the journey tomorrow. My boss who's driving has to get to shrewsbury from Bromsgrove in the morning so he has the added issues of flooding in the Severn valley which means a detour around the M6/M54 Should be "fun" but can't help being a little worried about it all.

Good luck for tomorrow, I normally travel to the welsh coast for the storms, but I think tomorrow is going to be just a tad to fierce for me, so will watch it from the safety of my lounge. I might take a walk with the dogs onto seven pitches to feel the force of the winds..good luck and safe journey
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On how much rain...check the relevant charts.

On tides. We are just past the neap tides heading towards spring tides as we approach full moon. However around the british isles due to various factors there is a bit of lag. So fortunatelt at present tides are towards the lower rather than upper end of the natural spectrum.

Of concern is now how full various aquifers are and the baseflow and saturated overland flow now likely to just exacerbate the situation in the thames.

Rain now is the primary concern. Although both sytems have potential for damaging gusts.

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SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING - PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION #014

ISSUED: 2200UTC TUESDAY 11TH FEBRUARY 2014

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:

WIDESPREAD, DAMAGING, AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS

GWYNEDD

ANGLESEY

CONWY

DEESIDE

FLINTSHIRE

MERSEYSIDE

LANCASHIRE

GREATER MANCHESTER

NORTH YORK MOORS

IN EFFECT FROM 1600UTC UNTIL 2200UTC

PLEASE REFER TO WATCH #012 AND WARNING #013 FOR SYNOPSIS

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY CROSSING THE IRISH SEA, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MEAN WIND SPEEDS OF ABOVE 60MPH MAY BE ACHEIVED, WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY ABOVE 90MPH, FROM AROUND 1600UTC ONWARDS FOR COASTAL AREAS. NORTH WALES AND WESTERN PARTS OF NORTHERN ENGLAND MAY BE EXPOSED TO GUSTS NEAR 90MPH ESPECIALLY OVER SNOWDONIA, THE PENNINES AND YORKSHIRE DALES. THESE WINDS WILL BE DAMAGING, AS SUCH DIRECT OBSERVATION IS NOT ADVISED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

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simply answer is no as we're seeing neap tides at the moment so very little chance of coastal flooding thankfully

Although we have high tides into the weekend and early next week. So as more storms are appearing in the models, no doubt there will be a ton of coastal flood warnings to come
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Tommorow's daily express says 90mph vicious Superstorms. Wow.

might have it right for once. On a serious note those nmm charts paint a worrying picture  even inland could get gusts exceeding 70 mph  

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