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Atlantic Storms February 2014


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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    London can be a huge concern if the Thames were to break its banks in the city center. Posted Image I don't mind parliament gets flooded though because they deserved it.

    You got to think about all the tube stations near the Thames, I sure don't even want to think about the water getting in there.

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Thankfully the rain bands look like moving through quickly next week. And at last into the weekend we see dryer weather taking hold finally.

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    The Met Office have released an analysis of the stormy wet weather this winter, well worth a read

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/i/Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final_07023.pdf

     

    Although no individual storm can be regarded as exceptional, the clustering and persistence of the storms is highly unusual. December and January were exceptionally wet. For England and Wales this was one of, if not the most, exceptional periods of winter rainfall in at least 248 years. The two-month total (December + January) of 372.2mm for the southeast and central southern England region is the wettest any 2-month period in the series from 1910.

     

    During January and into February the tracks of the storms fell at a relatively low latitude, giving severe gales along the south and west coasts and pushing the bulk of the ocean wave energy toward the southwest of Ireland and England. Peak wave periods were exceptionally long; each wave carried a lot of energy and was able to inflict significant damage on coastal infrastructure.

     

    In a series from 1883, flow rates on the River Thames remained exceptionally high for longer than in any previous flood episode. Correspondingly, floodplain inundation s were extensive and protracted. The severe weather in the UK coincided with exceptionally cold weather in Canada and the USA. These extreme weather events on both sides of the Atlantic were linked to a persistent pattern of perturbations to the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean and North America. There is a strong association with the stormy weather experienced in the UK during December and January and the up-stream perturbations to the jet stream over North America and the North Pacific.

     

    The major changes in the Pacific jet stream were driven by a persistent pattern of enhanced rainfall over Indonesia and the tropical West Pacific associated with higher than normal ocean temperatures in that region. The North Atlantic jet stream has also been unusually strong; this can be linked to an unusually strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi - Biennial Oscillation (QBO) , which in turn has driven a very deep polar vortex and strong polar night jet.

     

    Funny how that is (correctly) attributed to the weather and we don't get everyone blaming the EA and saying it is due to the Thames not being dredged or something.. Of course that would be silly especially as weirs/sluices/locks would cause flooding before any sediment build up, but I don't want to tempt fate.

     

    Oh wait.. just heard some guy on News 24 suggesting it should be made deeper and wider.. umm well that will work well with various weirs/locks etc that would have to be bulldozed, not to mention riverside properties, bridges, and widening turning the rivers image into muddy banks causing a crash in the local property market and ruining ecology.. why are some people so dumb sometimes and can't except that floods happen on floodplains sometimes Posted Image And news always say about 'stopping something like this happening in the future' well of course it will happen again, the Thames has a history of floods, some higher than now, as many rivers do.

     

    Possibly the wrong thread.. oops

    Edited by Evening thunder
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    London can be a huge concern if the Thames were to break its banks in the city center. Posted Image I don't mind parliament gets flooded though because they deserved it.

    if parliament gets flooded I'm shure the mp, s can use all the hot air they generate to dry things out !!.....
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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    London can be a huge concern if the Thames were to break its banks in the city center. Posted Image I don't mind parliament gets flooded though because they deserved it.

    I don't why you would say that, the building is beautiful and doesn't deserve to be destroyed. Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, tornados
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

    And back to the weather  Posted Image

     

    Its raining outside, gentle breeze, heating is on cuz im cold

     

    and next week looks a bit yuk lol, i dont like the look of those LP's..ah well on a bright note, im eating home-made cookies and no dont ask for one cuz they are mine, alll mineee  Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

    http://www.mysanantonio.com/slideshows/faith/slideshow/Pope-John-Paul-II-s-1987-visit-to-San-Antonio-48679.php    This is what happened to the Pope before the 1987 storm.*

    Sorry North America....

    The Weather in Southern England responded historically, like it is doing now with the the recent news story .http://www.dailymail...agull-crow.html

    Now I know this is not peer reviewed and probably will never bePosted Image  but I know where I would put my money, Crow is the land flood, Gull is the Sea Flood. Either way you weaken and they are the main predator at the storms most intense periods, I would imagine 

    Biblical, yet deserved by our over population of such a nice place, Yet, it more than likely has nothing whatsoever to to with, religion.Posted Image

    Now the weather may quite go with some models I quite imagine over the coming weeks, we shall see.

     

    * Photograph 7

    Edited by Rustynailer
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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

    18z GFS brings a swathe of 70-80mph wind gusts inland over central/southern England during Wednesday evening.

     

    Some severe gusts to 90mph would be possible in the southwest.

    Edited by Matty M
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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Anyway, moving on... and yes I added to some of this Gull and Crow earlier. Back to Atlantic Storm Discussion now please, this could become a very useful and informative thread over the coming days, so best to keep it that way. Posted Image

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    Posted Image

     

    This chart shows it all really. 80mph gusts for the south west, and on exposed coastlines and hills I expect that would be considerably higher. Even inland, gusts getting up to 60mph as the storm moves North East.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

    18z GFS brings a swathe of 70-80mph wind gusts inland over central/southern England during Wednesday evening.

     

    Some severe gusts to 90mph would be possible in the southwest.

    Basically its looking like an October 2013 storm again but just with the worst of the winds lasting for a much longer period.

     

    Likely to change though as its days away yet. Hopefully!Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    Basically its looking like an October 2013 storm again but just with the worst of the winds lasting for a much longer period.

     

    Likely to change though as its days away yet. Hopefully!Posted Image

     

    I would say it's looking considerably stronger than the October 2013 low! Spot the difference.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by radiohead
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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    My latest Blog on this coming week's installment of stormy weather to come, based on this evening's model output:

     

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5671;sess=

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    Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

    I really hope we don't need an "Atlantic storms March 2014" thread.

    So do I! I'm off on a mini-cruise to Santander on 7th March & I fear the Pont Aven maybe minus 2 passengers upon leaving Portsmouth at the mo lol!
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    Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

    I would say it's looking considerably stronger than the October 2013 low! Spot the difference.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

    The isobars don't always give a good indication of the winds though.

     

    As has been allready been mentioned this would bring inland 70-80mph gusts, similar to what we had in the squall on the October 2013 storm in the early hours.

     

    It would basically be an enlongated October 2013 storm squall for many places, so the same winds but for a longer period as I stated.

    Edited by wimblettben
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    Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

    I would say this storm will deliver 200 mph winds and blow us into Denmark Posted Image !!!...

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Just having a quick glance at the ensembles  some off them agree with a very powerful storm brewing mid week.  As many have said still a few days out  but one to keep an eye on.

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    Many nasty storms for the middle of next week in the ensembles

     

    Posted Image  Posted Image  Posted Image  Posted Image  Posted Image  Posted Image    Posted Image

     

    Just a fairly small selection, another nasty storm popping up for around Friday too, e.g.

     

    Posted Image    Posted Image

     

    Must be a fairly good chance of the most damaging windstorm of the winter next week

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    Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, snow
  • Location: Glasgow

    18z GFS brings a swathe of 70-80mph wind gusts inland over central/southern England during Wednesday evening.

     

    Some severe gusts to 90mph would be possible in the southwest.

    Dont scare them Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    Some of the ensembles above remind me of Hurricanes, relatively small features wound up extremely tightly.. all I can say is lets hope they are 'against the grain' or we could have a few problems in the south middle of this week..

    Edited by SP1986
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    Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL

    If this was a greenland or scandi high it would definately not varify, even at this range!Just remember, these swines varify pretty well generally at these timeframes. I'm 85/15 in favour of something big this week.

    Some of the ensembles above remind me of Hurricanes, relatively small features wound up extremely tightly.. all I can say is lets hope they are 'against the grain' or we could have a few problems in the south middle of this week..

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    Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, snow
  • Location: Glasgow

    Everytime a deep low shows up, it gets downgraded downgraded downgraded day by day, everyone espically the southerners seem to forget LOL

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Everytime a deep low shows up, it gets downgraded downgraded downgraded day by day, everyone espically the southerners seem to forget LOL

    Except they haven't have they. Posted Image

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