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Atlantic Storms February 2014


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Posted
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading
  • Location: Aldermaston, Nr Newbury/Reading

    None of the weather sites are picking this feature up that I can tell, although things may change?Generally my experience is that there would be hints on these weather sites but I can't see anything on the ones I've searched...

    Check the BBC Weather web site, it's mentioned in the long range forecast that it may hit the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

    Check the BBC Weather web site, it's mentioned in the long range forecast that it may hit the UK.

    Thankyou for the heads up, I just checked and the weather forecaster did mention that it was one to watch....
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Now on the UKMO run but much further north only a minor feature on the GFS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Good luck peeps in the south today, I am too so will monitor today's deluge not going to be nice..

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    Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, tornados
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

    Up early and ready for this deluge cuz now my house is at the point it will not take anymore.

    On a bright note coffee smells good, but still indecisive as to what too eat for breakfast (bacon Bap, Cornflakes ,Full English, or nothing LoL Posted Image cuz dont want the electrics cutting out and only having half a full English)

     

    Morning Stats

     

    994.0bm (rising 0.6mb/hr)

    Max gust 18.5 (last Hour)

    Soil moisture 18.0cb

    Gentle Breeze

    Temp 8.4c

    Dew point 6.4c 

    Rainfall This month (19.8mm)

     

    Decided that one of these will be a good purchase for inside  my house at present  Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    Sorry for Joke, have a good day guys and stay safe Posted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by Cyclonic
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    Posted
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset

    Met Office Radar looking impressive/alarming for the South Coast  - large area of torrential rain arriving perhaps 10.30 onwards. This appears to be earlier and heavier than that shown on their last (amber) warning posted late yesterday morning. If my reading of the radar is correct i am surprised Meto warnings have not been updated this morning as I feel there could be flash flooding as well as deterioration of the background water levels.

     

    Edit: radar now showing heaviest rain staying offshore and moderating.

    Edited by egret
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Numerous depressions set to batter the UK in the coming days and into next week, although the winds have eased it'll be another very wet day over southern England today then it's all eyes on Saturday for the next stormy spell. 

     

    Very strong winds on the 00z GFS from S Scotland southwards, gusts again in the 60-70mph range, further disruption likely. 

    post-9615-0-64702800-1391675945_thumb.gipost-9615-0-92408900-1391675957_thumb.pn

     

    Next week the ECM has a very tight circulation crossing N Ireland on Tuesday with very strong winds wrapped around it, 40-50kt sustained speeds across parts of Ireland and through Irish Sea and SW Scotland. Wunderground is a good site to view ECM charts for these features rather the 24 time frames on Meteociel, shown below.  

     

    post-9615-0-11971000-1391676897_thumb.gipost-9615-0-28052200-1391677242_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-90205100-1391676828_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-05668700-1391676844_thumb.pn

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    Met Office Radar looking impressive/alarming for the South Coast  - large area of torrential rain arriving perhaps 10.30 onwards. This appears to be earlier and heavier than that shown on their last (amber) warning posted late yesterday morning. If my reading of the radar is correct i am surprised Meto warnings have not been updated this morning as I feel there could be flash flooding as well as deterioration of the background water levels.

    Rain just arriving here ,on west  mendip .that sky is now a uniform lead grey ,with not much movement of cloud cover ,to me that shows we could see some intense down pours ,would not be surprised to see some locations see in excess of 40mm of rain .no end in sight for many over coming 6/7 days ,and a growing possibility of colder uppers and low pressure and also temp at the surface becoming colder some of us could see snow next week but at this range areas and elevation still waiting for detail ,a very interesting but worrying time yet again seems likely ,cheers all .

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #009ISSUED: 2100UTC WEDNESDAY 5TH FEBRUARY 2014

     

    SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING - SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN AND SOUTEAST ENGLAND, WALES, EAST ANGLIASTRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - CHANNEL ISLANDS, SOUTHEAST ENGLAND

     

    IN EFFECT FROM 0600UTC THURSDAY 6TH UNTIL 1200UTC FRIDAY 7TH FEBRUARY 2014

     

    A SHALLOW ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GALES

     

    DISCUSSION:

     

    THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ~980MB LOW CROSSES BISCAY BAY AND TRANSITS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ENGLAND, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANK. THOUGH THESE MAY REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE CHANNEL, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS TO 70MPH OVER THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AND EXPOSED COASTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE MOIST AIRMASS WRAPPED UP IN THIS LOW, BEING FROM A MORE SOUTHERN ORIGIN THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS, WILL POSE A FLOODING RISK GIVEN A WIDE AREA OF 15-20MM OF PERSISTENT RAIN, PERHAPS SNOW OVER THE PENNINES, WHILE LOCALISED AREAS OF SOUTH WALES, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST ENGLAND MAY SEE 40MM EXCEEDED GIVEN SHORT PERIODS OF MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. FLOODING IS LIKELY GIVEN HOW PRONE SOME AREAS ARE, THOUGH REGIONS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH PRIOR RAINFALL OR SATURATION MAY EXPERIENCE EXCESS SURFACE WATER. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

     

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

     

    http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, tornados
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

    I have two words to describe this weather now  monotonously boring  Posted Image Even my dog is now refusing to walk any longer then 10 minutes and then she goes on strike and won't budge

    21.1mm monthly rainfall already

    222.2mm already this year

    3.0mm today (So far)

     

    Posted Image

     

    http://estofex.org/

    Edited by Cyclonic
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Amber warnings for wind issued, getting rather confusing with all those layers..

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1391644800

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: East County Clare
  • Location: East County Clare

    Amber warnings for wind issuedissued, getting rather confusing with all those layers..http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1391644800

    Where can I apply for my understanding Met O weather warnings map course?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    Amber Wind & Rain, i know that is more bad news

     

    This makes for interesting reading

     

    http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/02/06/uks-exceptional-weather-in-context/

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Saturday's low now SE of New Foundland having exited the east coast of Canada earlier, quite distinctive cloud head on the Atlantic satellite loops, cold front from this systems stretches all the way to Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico:

     

    Posted Image

     

    post-1052-0-41710700-1391695359_thumb.gi

     

    The deepening low moves on to the polar side of the strong 200 knt+ polar front jet tonight and begins to deepen rapidly tomorrow. But like yesterday's low, it fills on Saturday as it crosses NE across northern Britain, so we miss its most intense phase. Still, we are likely to see 60-70mph coasts across Sern Britain around southern/western coasts and hills, perhaps isolated 80mph gusts in the SW, 50-60mph inland. 

     

    Jet remains strong next week too looking at model guidance, with the risk of lows deepening across the UK, perhaps explosively, rather than filling - so maybe potential for higher winds than we've seen this week. However, big range of solutions from models over the track, timing and depth of potential lows.

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

    Sorry I don't know how to share the view but Wednesday's storm on GFS looks very strong 954mb and  at presents the southwest/south is in it's firing line....

    It'll be interesting what the 12z makes of the feature....downgrade or upgrade....I'm pretty sure it wasn't such a potent feature on the 6z? Edit:  It was showing on Thursday instead but not as potent (I just checked)

    Edited by TwisterGirl81
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Latest update has us back in the firing line again. Funny how it all shifted south and then has been moving back by degrees north. Nothing really drastic but will be windy outside chance of 60 mph but mostly likely 50 slightly above in Sunny Sheffield.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Saturday's low now SE of New Foundland having exited the east coast of Canada earlier, quite distinctive cloud head on the Atlantic satellite loops, cold front from this systems stretches all the way to Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico:

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted ImageAtlantic-13.gif

     

    The deepening low moves on to the polar side of the strong 200 knt+ polar front jet tonight and begins to deepen rapidly tomorrow. But like yesterday's low, it fills on Saturday as it crosses NE across northern Britain, so we miss its most intense phase. Still, we are likely to see 60-70mph coasts across Sern Britain around southern/western coasts and hills, perhaps isolated 80mph gusts in the SW, 50-60mph inland. 

     

    Jet remains strong next week too looking at model guidance, with the risk of lows deepening across the UK, perhaps explosively, rather than filling - so maybe potential for higher winds than we've seen this week. However, big range of solutions from models over the track, timing and depth of potential lows.

     

    love that sat image Nick, what is the link please?

     

    for those interested in learning from an actual event, this system is well worth following, check on the infra red movie sat links, the upper air chart, especially the actual over and around the surface feature, and anything else you can get your hands on-save it all and in a quiet hour or so some time in the future, take a close look at what happened and whether the low did follow the computer advice. Don't go beyond T+96 on the model output. I guarantee if you do this you will have a heck of a lot better understanding of how lows are created and why they move across the Atlantic, deepening or not and why?

    go on try it.

    Edited by johnholmes
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    A lot of heavy rain moving up across the south now. Further intensifcation expected later with perhaps some squally downpours with thunder later tonight, some large totals possible in places.

     

    Models suggesting another possible nasty system next week.

     

    ECM Posted ImageUKMO Posted Image

     

    GEM and GFS suggesting something nasty also. Uncertainty at the moment, ECM yesterday had it crossing the country while this morning it swings up the the NW. Something stirring though which could be especially nasty, a potential 'bomb'.... so worth keeping an eye on. ECM seems to be leading the way with these systems, it was fairly consistent with todays low affecting us from Feb 1st with all the other models playing catch up, first to pick up this system too, the King of the models indeedy it is

    Today's low as of 12pm

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Bobby
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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    While the Jetstream stays where it is, and with it being so strong, any low pressure from the West is being whipped up and flung at us. Until the Jet weakens or moves to a more normal route, I can't see any real stop in this pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    The difference next weeks is that it looks like the storm systems will be reaching their deepest and most active phase very close to or right over the UK, rather than weakening & filling depressions crossing us - still fairly potent beasts, respectively. 

     

    Nasty little beast heading into the NW on the ECM and that wouldn't be the end of them looking at these charts. An exceptional period of weather, the worse potentially saved until the last?!

     

    post-9615-0-10973500-1391712236_thumb.gipost-9615-0-46651200-1391712255_thumb.gi

    Edited by Liam J
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    The difference next weeks is that it looks like the storm systems will be reaching their deepest and most active phase very close to or right over the UK, rather than weakening & filling depressions crossing us - still fairly potent beasts, respectively. 

     

    Nasty little beast heading into the NW on the ECM and that wouldn't be the end of them looking at these charts. An exceptional period of weather, the worse potentially saved until the last?!

     

    Posted Image1111.gifPosted Image1112.gif

     

    Storm #252 at +192 also. They just keep on coming

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Sooner or later it's look like we're going to have a real humdinger! Next week looks like we'll move up a few more gears. More dynamic with cyclogenesis occurring nearer to the UK instead of way out in the Atlantic 

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Swindon/Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Swindon/Reading

    ECM has the potential storm on Monday down to 939mb, just north of Ireland. Seems to be significantly deeper on this one, which is probably why it's further north.

     

    As if the ones we've had up until now weren't bad enough..

     

    Posted Image

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