Atlantic Storms February 2014

[TwisterGirl81]

It was January 1990, and Burns Day is 25th which is when the storm was.

 

Sorry my mistake, although there was another exceptionally windy period for the southwest the end of February 1990 also as well the end of January...

 

I'm glad someone is awake Lol  Thankyou Uncle Barty!

[vladthemert]

What happened to Fridays storm ?

possibly could this have merged ?

 

Hi everyone new to forum  been lurking reading thread wanted join in.

 

I been tracking with this website the winds yesterday it was predicting what other models now seeing

 

http://www.weather-forecast.com/topographic-maps/england?symbols=cities.forecast.wind

 

Not very good seeing news that water now coming back to surface flooding in berkshire ontop thames swelling.

 

Where I live been very lucky only fright was dec 5th surge which thank god dock master thought to empty docks abit before it came and surge came over the dock gates but action saved a town.

 

Looking like winds on the east coast could be very bad tempory defences which patched the damage, have been removed to support somerset levels, was this huge mistake not knowing when it will end. Not convinced this final swang song Lows with the model coming from USA around 16th 17th which hopefully due time might not develop hopefully.

 

update south west upto wales now be prepared on met

Edited February 10, 2014 by vladthemert

[Lynxus]

Certainly if the NMM/GFS are right there could be, no exaggeration to say that such strong winds would kill people

 

 

 

 

Oh My god..

 

Winds driving that far inland is going to cause some major disruption! 60 to 70 mph winds !

Poor somerset!  Just look at it.. 

 

then again, the wind might blow all the water away!

Edited February 10, 2014 by Lynxus

[TwisterGirl81]

possibly could this have merged ?

 

Hi everyone new to forum  been lurking reading thread wanted join in.

 

I been tracking with this website the winds yesterday it was predicting what other models now seeing

 

http://www.weather-forecast.com/topographic-maps/england?symbols=cities.forecast.wind

 

Not very good seeing news that water now coming back to surface flooding in berkshire ontop thames swelling.

 

Where I live been very lucky only fright was dec 5th surge which thank god dock master thought to empty docks abit before it came and surge came over the dock gates but action saved a town.

 

Looking like winds on the east coast could be very bad tempory defences which patched the damage, have been removed to support somerset levels, was this huge mistake not knowing when it will end. Not convinced this final swang song Lows with the model coming from USA around 16th 17th which hopefully due time might not develop hopefully.

 

update south west upto wales now be prepared on met

 

90MPH gusts widley in the southwest peninsula, gusting over 100MPH in exposed location.,....jesus christ, I saw 110 in southwest wales

[Lynxus]

90MPH gusts widley in the southwest peninsula, gusting over 100MPH in exposed location.,....jesus christ, I saw 110 in southwest wales

 

On a brighter note, After this it looks like we may have a little bit of quieter weather.

 

Board your windows up down on the south / southwest coast,

Chain your trees and wheelie bins down,

get the cat in and charge your batteries and get some tins + bottles of water. 

 

Thats my suggestion for the folk in the worst areas.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Lynxus

[Jimmyh]

Certainly if the NMM/GFS are right there could be, no exaggeration to say that such strong winds would kill people

 

 

Surrey Storm Bobby what the hell is that just above the southwest... looks like it has gone off the scale....... eek

[radiohead]

90MPH gusts widley in the southwest peninsula, gusting over 100MPH in exposed location.,....jesus christ, I saw 110 in southwest wales

 

Those wind speeds are in kph not mph. Still looks very windy there though!

Edited February 10, 2014 by radiohead

[TwisterGirl81]

Those wind speeds are in kph not mph. Still looks very windy there though!

 

Oh well that's a little less extreme I guess so more like 60 - 70mph gusts inland and possble 80mph and above around coasts, I'm a bit dizzy today lol

[vladthemert]

we got prey its wrong here we getting winds in 85 thursday noon.  What UK done deserve the wrath.

Edited February 10, 2014 by vladthemert

[Matty M]

12z GFS looking a bit deeper earlier.. A very tense run for all!

 

[skywatcher]

Last month it seemed a good idea to book our ferry crossing from Ireland to Wales for this Wednesday. It doesn't seem quite such a good idea now …. -

Edited February 10, 2014 by skywatcher

[Matty M]

GFS taking slightly more northerly track, somewhere is going to get hammered.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

GFS taking slightly more northerly track, somewhere is going to get hammered.

 

 

 

Does no favors and introduces stronger winds for more of the country,,

[Lynxus]

Those wind speeds are in kph not mph. Still looks very windy there though!

 

Yeah, Its reacting about 110 / 120  ( So around 60 / 70 mph in places.. )

 

Tbh, Im confident that this is going to be a notable storm system that shouldnt be taken lightly. Especially in more open areas.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

Dont worry.. Fridays Storm is back on 

[Biggin]

GFS taking slightly more northerly track, somewhere is going to get hammered.

 

Not so strong winds for the SE then I take it.

[Zenarcher]

Tonight into early Tueday 50 to 65mph gusts will move in from the West. This is due to a low pressure system passing by the NW of Scotland,

 

 

Onto Wednesday 12z runs both the GFS and UKMO agree on it with the GFS slightly deeper by about 5mb but they pretty much agree on the track of the storm.

 

Wednesday 12pm Gust chart in MPH showing 50 to 60mph inland and over 90mph to the South of Ireland

 

 

Wednesday 6pm 60 to 70mph gusts inland with some exposed parts likely to reach 75mph or slightly more,

 

 

At the moment Wednesday is looking very severe mostly because the high winds look to head inland.

 

Onto Friday still uncertain about it the GFS this morning dropped the idea of the storm but on the latest update along with the UKMO model it is back although it has been delayed until Saturday morning. Currently it shows 50 to 60mph gusts along the coasts but the worst of the winds miss the UK.

 

 

Next 3 days total rainfall. Most of Ireland, Wales, SW England, N England, S Scotland and W Scotland look to see the most rainfall over the next 3 days,

 

[Matty M]

Latest Hirlam update tracks the low further northwest than both the GFS and UKM with the strongest winds through southern Ireland into Wales and central/Northern England.

[Richie V]

Yay, finally we get a turn in south yorkshire. Mabe me n The Pit will get to record some big numbers on out stations at last.

Tonight into early Tueday 50 to 65mph gusts will move in from the West. This is due to a low pressure system passing by the NW of Scotland,

 

g1.png

 

Onto Wednesday 12z runs both the GFS and UKMO agree on it with the GFS slightly deeper by about 5mb but they pretty much agree on the track of the storm.

 

Wednesday 12pm Gust chart in MPH showing 50 to 60mph inland and over 90mph to the South of Ireland

 

g2.png

 

Wednesday 6pm 60 to 70mph gusts inland with some exposed parts likely to reach 75mph or slightly more,

 

g3.png

 

At the moment Wednesday is looking very severe mostly because the high winds look to head inland.

 

Onto Friday still uncertain about it the GFS this morning dropped the idea of the storm but on the latest update along with the UKMO model it is back although it has been delayed until Saturday morning. Currently it shows 50 to 60mph gusts along the coasts but the worst of the winds miss the UK.

 

G4.png

 

Next 3 days total rainfall. Most of Ireland, Wales, SW England, N England, S Scotland and W Scotland look to see the most rainfall over the next 3 days,

 

rain.png

[Liam J]

Latest Hirlam update tracks the low further northwest than both the GFS and UKM with the strongest winds through southern Ireland into Wales and central/Northern England.

 

Hi Matty, is the Hirlam showing a large variation, can you post the charts for comparison?

Edited February 10, 2014 by Liam J

[ihatecoldweather]

The bit on the end of the amber warning - This warning should be viewed in the broader context of the Yellow Wind Alert.

 

Does this mean that they currently think that everywhere in the yellow warning will get these strong winds, as the impact matrix thingy says that the yellow warning has the impact of a amber just uncertainty...

 

I ask this as for example the South east no where in land is forecast to have gusts over 50mph, and the coast only just reaches 60???

Edited February 10, 2014 by ihatecoldweather

[weirpig]

Latest Hirlam update tracks the low further northwest than both the GFS and UKM with the strongest winds through southern Ireland into Wales and central/Northern England.

Yep this could be a notable storm those type of wind speed here would cause a lot of problems

[wimblettben]

I wonder whether this thing will retain its strength but end up further north, hitting the usual areas such as scotland or northern england the worst.

 

Some latest models have just started to indicate this, so either it will dramatically downgrade by tomorrow or just end up in a more usual area for the strength of this type of low.

[Mapantz]

A quick GFS 06z/12z gust chart comparison post so folks can see the differences in simplistic terms..

12z first, 06z second:

09:00 -

12:00 -

15:00 -

18:00 -

Subtle changes make a difference to where the strongest winds will be but Cornwall, Devon and South Wales taking the brunt, Southern coasts taking another pounding too, luckily the tides are coming out of neaps, so they won't be as high as recent ones.

The rainfall will just add to the misery ..

It could be a tricky evening rush hour in some areas, awful conditions for commuting.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Mapantz

[Man With Beard]

I wonder whether this thing will retain its strength but end up further north, hitting the usual areas such as scotland or northern england the worst. Some latest models have just started to indicate this, so either it will dramatically downgrade by tomorrow or just end up in a more usual area for the strength of this type of low.

Yes it now looks like SW Wales rather than SW England is going to be the epicentre of the storm, still 90mph+ on the cards - although this is (very) slightly better news for the SE, it is not good news for central England which may see 70 mph gusts quite widely. Also, the northerly track may mean Ireland takes more of the brunt of the storm. But aside a small northerly correction, no real change in intensity, it's still probably the windiest storm of the winter.