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Atlantic Storms February 2014


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Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

I'm wondering whether Met Office warnings have to be sanctioned by COBRA now that the weather and the "management" of flooding defences and the army deployment is being co-ordinated.

 

If I was running the country I certainly wouldn't want the Met O issuing warnings that could cause widespread panic until contingency plans were in place.

 

Though that is assuming there are contingency plans.....

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I'm wondering whether Met Office warnings have to be sanctioned by COBRA now that the weather and the "management" of flooding defences and the army deployment is being co-ordinated.

 

If I was running the country I certainly wouldn't want the Met O issuing warnings that could cause widespread panic until contingency plans were in place.

 

Though that is assuming there are contingency plans.....

 

Don't be silly... David Cameron is in charge.. Plans? What plans?

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Just a point, the Met Office have far more models and ensemble suites than us the Joe public get to view, they have been bang on this winter regarding storms and highlighting the worst affected regions with their much more comprehensive insight.

 

Looking at the ensembles theres still a fair bit of uncertainty regarding the track just yet to have high confidence.  

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

XCW weather wind map isn't showing any storm for Friday into Saturday either so its looking likely now that this storm on Wednesday will be the last one this Winter.

 

Mind you even if its the same as the Christmas one, then we here won't be too badly effected, with just 45-50mph gusts hitting our house again.

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The WRF NMM just heightens concerns, by showing off the chart gust speeds for coastal areas.

 

Posted Image

 

And still very strong as they move inland,

 

If the GFS 06z/NMM 06z is right this will be an historic storm, far worse than anything else this winter. Red warnings from the Met Office might be justified if those charts come true!

 

Still a fairly sizeable IF though at the moment with some uncertainties still on the models. ECM brings a strong storm but further North and with winds not quite as strong for the UK, close to hurricane force for parts of Ireland though (winds in knots).

 

Posted Image 

UKMO and GEM have a shallower but still strong storm. Plenty of support in the GFS ensembles for a strong storm with variations. One to watch to say the least.

Edited by Bobby
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

XCW weather wind map isn't showing any storm for Friday into Saturday either so its looking likely now that this storm on Wednesday will be the last one this Winter.

 

Mind you even if its the same as the Christmas one, then we here won't be too badly effected, with just 45-50mph gusts hitting our house again.

Really? You can say that with 3 weeks of Winter to go? 

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Looking at the ECM ensembles member maps out of 50 about 24 show this low being strong the rest go for something weaker. Still time for downgrades as the ECM and UKMO show something slightly weaker than the GFS.

 

 

XCW weather wind map isn't showing any storm for Friday into Saturday either so its looking likely now that this storm on Wednesday will be the last one this Winter.

 

Mind you even if its the same as the Christmas one, then we here won't be too badly effected, with just 45-50mph gusts hitting our house again.

 

XC Weather uses the GFS data it says on the website,

 

post-6686-0-81325100-1392038259_thumb.pn

 

Friday is still far away yet and it could still happen.

Edited by weathermaster
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Never in any doubt eh? :)It looks likely that will go to an amber at some point, judging by the matrix?!
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What the Met Office say on the storm

 

A vigorous area of low pressure is expected to move northeastwards across the UK later on Wednesday, clearing eastwards early on Thursday. This is likely to be accompanied by a swathe of gales across many parts of England and Wales which may be severe in places.  The public should be aware of the the risk of disruption to transport and possibly also power supplies.

 

A vigorous area of low pressure is expected to move quickly northeastwards across the UK later on Wednesday, clearing eastwards on Thursday.  At present computer models are suggesting a variety of possible tracks for this system across the UK. Therefore there remains uncertainty regarding its exact track and hence the areas more  likely to be affected by the worst of the winds. However, it looks as if gusts of 60-70 mph are likely with perhaps over 80 mph in exposed areas and that southwestern areas are most at risk.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Looking at the ECM ensembles member maps out of 50 about 24 show this low being strong the rest go for something weaker. Still time for downgrades as the ECM and UKMO show something slightly weaker than the GFS.

 

 

 

XC Weather uses the GFS data it says on the website,

 

Posted Imagexc.png

 

Friday is still far away yet and it could still happen.

On Wednesdays storm, I imagine the METO will want to be really sure where it's going to hit before issuing the big warnings. It does, in all honesty, need one more set of runs before nailing down the detail.
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Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day

wow the whole country is now yellow!!!!!!

 

 

Yellow Alert of Wind for London & South East England

 

Yellow Alert of Wind for London & South East England : Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham valid from 1200 Wed 12 Feb to 0600 Thu 13 Feb

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Too busy looking into the wind potential I've totally missed out the snow possibilities, suppose it's an added bit of interest! Very cold air travelling eastwards across the Atlantic, unusual.

 

post-9615-0-23770700-1392038811_thumb.gi

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

Amber warning of Wind

 

Issued at: 
1333 on Mon 10 Feb 2014
 
Valid from: 
1200 on Wed 12 Feb 2014
 
Valid to: 
0600 on Thu 13 Feb 2014
 
A vigorous area of low pressure is expected to move northeastwards across the UK later on Wednesday, clearing eastwards early on Thursday. This is likely to be accompanied by a swathe of gales across many parts of England and Wales which may be severe in places.  The public should be prepared for the the risk of disruption to transport and possibly also power supplies.
 
This warning should be viewed in the broader context of the Yellow Wind Alert.
 
A vigorous area of low pressure is expected to move quickly northeastwards across the UK later on Wednesday.  At present computer models are suggesting a variety of possible tracks for this system across the UK. Hence there remains uncertainty regarding its exact track and hence the areas more likely to be affected by the worst of the winds. However, current ideas suggest that southwest Britain could bear the brunt with gusts of 60-70 mph widely, perhaps with gusts over 80 mph in exposed areas. 
 
Please monitor the website as this alert may be adjusted as new information become available.
 
Local Authorities affected and associated warning levels
 
Bath and North East Somerset, Bournemouth, Bristol, Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, Isles of Scilly, North Somerset, Plymouth, Poole, Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Swindon, Torbay, Wiltshire

I think a red warning is possible now if this keeps up.

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

Certainly if the NMM/GFS are right there could be, no exaggeration to say that such strong winds would kill people

 

Posted Image

I have to say, this would be bad. Lets hope a sudden downgrade happens by tomorrow because this would be inland 80mph gusts or more.

 

I like windy weather, but I guess this sort of wind will uproot most trees and cause damages to houses and so isn't really worth having when you count the damage that it would cause.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

I am concerned!  Basically the whole southwest peninsula/south coast having 80+mph gust....This has Burns Day storm written all over it! 

 

I posted a few days ago that the month of February 1990 was a windy month and it ended with the Burns Day Storm on the 26/27/28 of February 1990 even Exeter got 85mph gusts....Well it's been pretty windy for a few months now on and  off, this was just waiting to happen....The Great Storm of 1987 was not as severe in the south west as the Burns Day Storm was in 1990

 

It's all about patterns I guess sometimes.....

It was January 1990, and Burns Day is 25th which is when the storm was.

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

Certainly if the NMM/GFS are right there could be, no exaggeration to say that such strong winds would kill peoplPosted Image

 

Well if this comes off then I think records will be broken especially in the southwest!!

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