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Vorticity0123

Tropical Cyclone Dylan

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A new tropical low has developed in the Coral sea after a lull in overall activity for a week or so. The low is forecast to strengthen and move southeastward to impact Queensland in a few days. The Bureau of Meteorology only forecasts the system to become a category 1 tropical cyclone:

 

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While the GFS forecasts the system to become a sub-990 mb low at the time of landfall:

 

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The light blue colors on the forecast map indicate a pressure of around 990 hPa.

 

The JTWC has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert for the time being.

 

EDIT: The designation 0XU means that the tropical cyclone has not yet been given a number.

 

Sources:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14012800/4.html

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

Edited by Vorticity0123

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BOM issues severe weather warning due to tropical low

 

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THE Bureau of Meteorology has decided against commencing Tropical Cyclone Advices for now. They have instead just issued a severe weather warning for people in the Northern Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower Burdekin and parts of the Central Coast and Whitsundays Forecast Districts. A tropical low was situated in the northern Coral Sea, approximately 870 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns, and moving southwest at around 10 kilometres per hour.

 
The tropical low is expected to move in a general westwards direction over the next couple of days and may develop further as it approaches the Queensland east coast. The potential for the system to develop into a tropical cyclone will be assessed during today and Tropical Cyclone Advices will be issued if required. Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, and damaging winds, with peak gusts in excess of 90km/h, are expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Port Douglas and the area north of Mackay during Wednesday afternoon. 24 hour rainfall totals in excess of 200mm are possible.
 
Water levels on the high tide are also likely to exceed the highest tide of the year about coastal areas between Port Douglas and the areas north of Mackay over the next couple of days. Locations which may be affected include Hamilton Island, Proserpine, Bowen, Townsville, Cairns, Port Douglas and Mareeba

 

 

http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/region-on-storm-tide-alert/2151921/

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JTWC have upgraded the low to Tropical Cyclone 11P this morning. 11P doesn't have a great deal of convection directly over the LLCC, but does have two strong bands wrapping towards it. Moderate shear is currently hampering 11P, but shear is expected to ease, and with warm waters along the southwesterly track, JTWC expect a peak of 50kts before landfall.

 

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Edited by Somerset Squall

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Tropical Storm ELEVEN: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 72 hours lead

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The cyclone has been named Dylan by BOM. JTWC have upped the winds to 45kts this morning. Dylan is looking a lot better this morning, with deeper centralised convection and continued banding which has become more curved. Shear has eased and is now at a low level. Dylan could strengthen a little more today before landfall disrupts the circulation.

 

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post-1820-0-62110600-1391069904_thumb.jp

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Dylan has continued to strengthen, and winds are now at 55kts according to JTWC and BOM. Landfall should occur in 6-9 hours time, currently progged to be near Bowen and Proserpine. High winds will move inland to join the heavy rains which are affecting a large swathe of the Queensland coast. Dylan has probably peaked.

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