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Jane Louise

Convective / Storm Discussion - 27th January 2014 onwards

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I think Wednesday and into Wednesday evening will be another good day for storms, especially for central and eastern parts of Southern England. The EURO4 shows this quite well and they are likely to contain hail with -4C/-6C uppers...

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Edited by Panayiotis

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Good convection in the uppers this evening here and just had a very heavy downpour. Smells like one of them summer storms.

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Certainly looking like one of the most interesting Easterly events coming up, could well surprise some of us I reckon. 

Also a pity that the outputs for the rest of the week and into next were not taking place 2-3 months later! Some real plumey charts showing up, and even the hints of some possible thunderstorms in the form of imports Posted Image

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According to the lightning detectors there has been some lightning just south of here from a shower that passed through. I didn't hear anything and the shower was fairly tame (still looks so on the radar too) and so quite surprising to think it could have produced TL.

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According to the lightning detectors there has been some lightning just south of here from a shower that passed through. I didn't hear anything and the shower was fairly tame (still looks so on the radar too) and so quite surprising to think it could have produced TL.

 

might been one passed us this afternoon one lightening strike but thunder hardly audible.   Bit damp squid, the other day not expected do nothing turned out more potent.  There is moisture in there but hanging onto it.   Some models predicting this deapen in the atlantic return more potent later.  

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Met Office seem to think that there could be some thundery activity for Eastern areas tomorrow...

 

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Yes, upper low and cold air aloft (500hPa) is currently moving back westward over the country, so resulting steepening mid-levels brings another low risk day in tomorrow.  Moisture poor again across most of the risk area, though models show modest values nearer to eastern coasts given onshore breeze off the North Sea. Might also be an overlap over potential marginal instability and reasonably strong mid to upper level SE winds over eastern England, so perhaps an enhanced risk of deep convective cell development here.  Developing CF might provide focus for more organised activity.  EURO4 is generally modelling widespread shower activity, though, so would suggest no one region is more favoured. 

 

 

Yes I was way off the mark, a good few days ago I predicted this would be a dryish Easterly, I even saw a few sleet flakes mixed in with some moderate PPN tonight.

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Yes, upper low and cold air aloft (500hPa) is currently moving back westward over the country, so resulting steepening mid-levels brings another low risk day in tomorrow.  Moisture poor again across most of the risk area, though models show modest values nearer to eastern coasts given onshore breeze off the North Sea. Might also be an overlap over potential marginal instability and reasonably strong mid to upper level SE winds over eastern England, so perhaps an enhanced risk of deep convective cell development here.  Developing CF might provide focus for more organised activity.  EURO4 is generally modelling widespread shower activity, though, so would suggest no one region is more favoured. 

Yes, Estofex are also indicating low risk of thundery showers today but their zone of interest seems to line up more with the GFS enhanced CAPE area, i.e. Wales, central and south England.

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Chance of some convective activity today but difficult to determine where. As W09 says there is not a high amount of moisture, although eastern parts see this increase later before a tongue of slightly higher PWAT values cover N England and the N Midlands into the overnight period. The showers look to band across the N Mids/N England later but CAPE is weak, although lapse rates increase throughout the period across most of England and Wales. An area of 30knts of Deep Layer Shear crosses the eastern side of the country later, but instability is higher further west and so the two don't look to coincide. Tomorrow could be more interesting for a time in the afternoon hours as some CAPE develops in an area of 30knts DLS and moisture content should be that bit higher across the Midlands/N England.
 
Putting all this together I would expect numerous showers of which some could contain some thunder, this more likely down the eastern side of the country this afternoon and in the West Country/SW. Small hail/graupel likely in showers, perhaps more so in the SW portion. This evening showers will band together across the N Midlands and wave around the N Midlands and N England although overnight I think most of the rain will become dynamic with heavy, persistent rain more likely. Tomorrow currently looks to bring a more widespread risk across the central swathe of the country (from East to West) and the SW with a higher risk of hail.
 
Yellow - showers with hail and a slight risk of thunder
Pink - More organised showers this evening, possible thunder.
Red - Weak thunderstorms most likely
 
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Quite a number of lightening strikes in the NE

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Sky looks very very active down south ere!

 

Pretty interesting having showers a t-storms in this set up very slack flow up there I think is helping aid the development of them!

 

Could be taking rubbish though :D

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&subpage_0=12

 

ITS KICKING OFF! :D

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yes, a couple of storms have developed in the past few mins over central southern parts of England as well as the north east...

 

post-4149-0-06463900-1395924467_thumb.pn

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More activity in the NE than i expected, infact that NE coast is lighting up.

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Lightening seems to be quietening down for now in the NE no strikes for 21+ mins now

Edited by Summer Sun

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Still getting the occasional flash in Newcastle as the storm moves away inland. That was quite a potent storm including a couple of close cg strikes which has set a few car alarms off!

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More activity in the NE than i expected, infact that NE coast is lighting up.

It certainly has/did..!! Quite a thunderstorm with fairly frequent lightning. Mostly intra-cloud but I did see a couple of cloud to ground strikes. Still it wasn't to pleasant standing at the door as the temperature plummeted as a very cold wind increased in strength and accompanied by 4-5mm hail..!!

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Had a few rumbles in Herts this morning and some tall Cbs around still. Didn't see any lightning though and zero rain where I am.

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Had some pea-sized hail earlier, certainly is quite lively today.

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Had an overhead clap of thunder about 15 minutes ago. Very bright lightning. We've had more thunder here over the last 5 months than we normally get in 10 years.

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I have just enjoyed watching a soft hail shower move over with some large polystyrene ball style 'stones' falling and breaking up on impact. It's come from the edge of a developing shower and given the radar across the area I would love to be under the intense cells to see what is possible. A lovely clean convective sky with CBs everywhere and large blue sky breaks in between.

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Storm & Convective Forecast

post-1052-0-67478600-1395931701_thumb.pn

Issued 2014-03-27 14:43:34

Valid: 27/03/2014 1200z to 28/03/2014 0000z
 
THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
 
Synopsis
A ridge of high pressure sits across Scandinavia today, while further south slow-moving low pressure systems dominate southern and western Europe. A cold and unstable easterly flow covers the UK.

... SOUTHERN, CENTRAL AND EASTERN BRITAIN ...

500mb cold pool with temps AOB -30C slowly drifts west across southern Britain today, creating steep lapse rates and allowing convection to develop across the above areas this afternoon. Heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms have already developed across southern, central and eastern England. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail to 1-2cm diameter and also heavy downpours with a risk of localised flooding.
Edited by Nick F
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