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Jane Louise

Convective / Storm Discussion - 27th January 2014 onwards

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Time for a new thread for hopefully a good year ahead! Quite bizarre this winter to have so many storms for some. Anyway here's to a great year of plentiful storms for everyone.Posted Image Posted Image

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Time for a new thread for hopefully a good year ahead! Quite bizarre this winter to have so many storms for some. Anyway here's to a great year of plentiful storms for everyone.Posted Image Posted Image

Jane you have jinxed us all now

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Jane you have jinxed us all now

Lol only for me Paul .....It's gonna be a good Summer I know it!! that is providing Winter  hasent  nicked them all. Nah I reckon you are all in for some good surprises Posted Image For me! it's a different story Lol

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A few 100 j/kg CAPE painted over southern England, The MIDs and EAnglia tomorrow afternoon, so could be some hailers with thunder and lightning around. Missed the squall on Saturday, but off work tomorrow, so will have a camera at the ready. I'm sure there's been more storms this winter than last summer, what unusual weather we're having!

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Reckon we are in for a good year this year. Already beaten 2013 in some respects!! With SST's above the norm, that should increase the odds of storm potential. In my view, that is the reason along with low pressure that so many storms have occurred so far this winter.

I remember 90's winters being similar to this, and look what summer storms happened back then. They had me running into my parents room they were that scary! That used to happen to me most summers too back in the days!

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Heres a Slow Motion x8 of the 4.00 long strike (or the W09 Bolt!)

Cheers for all the likes

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Time for a new thread for hopefully a good year ahead! Quite bizarre this winter to have so many storms for some. Anyway here's to a great year of plentiful storms for everyone.Posted Image Posted Image

hi Jane,

Don't know if you heard,a guy at the race course was hit by lightning saturday

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Heres a Slow Motion x8 of the 4.00 long strike (or the W09 Bolt!)Cheers for all the likeshttp://youtu.be/qR32LA4RNqU

That was a cracking good capture Arnie.....10/10

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Reckon we are in for a good year this year. Already beaten 2013 in some respects!! With SST's above the norm, that should increase the odds of storm potential. In my view, that is the reason along with low pressure that so many storms have occurred so far this winter.

I remember 90's winters being similar to this, and look what summer storms happened back then. They had me running into my parents room they were that scary! That used to happen to me most summers too back in the days!

Difference is were having big thunderstorms during the winter time!!!!

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The summer 2013 was quite thundery at times here and more night storms than have been over the years, so I think was much better than recent years, possibly a sign things are getting back to 'normal' thundery plumes possibly returning properly, they need to change track more north sending some MCS's right up north too. It's the deep south plumes we haven't been getting. 

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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No forecasts out for today from the dedicated storm sites, GFS still going for some potential in the SW, right over Jane Louise as it goes!!! :lol:

 

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Yes the Lifted index just in the Thunderstorm level for the SW today (yellow) wouldn't be surprised to see a right old mix of elements today, low pressure, cold air up there and down here so who know more wild downpours! (in intensity and prolonged nature) did someone mention sleet and hail?....

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Not huge amounts of CAPE, but maybe a flash and rumble in the SW if Lightning Wizard are there or thereabouts:

 

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Could it extend to the SE too?

 

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Here comes the rain again.....

 

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hi Jane,

Don't know if you heard,a guy at the race course was hit by lightning saturday

Hi Pat, no I didn't know. Hope he is okay. I seen one flash of lightning on Saturday heard no thunder due to the strong winds as the squall line passed through.Also had kids running around me, so it was all rather noisy Lol.

No forecasts out for today from the dedicated storm sites, GFS still going for some potential in the SW, right over Jane Louise as it goes!!! Posted Image

 

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Posted Image

Oh wow! but I'm not going to jinx it Coast lol

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The summer 2013 was quite thundery at times here and more night storms than have been over the years, so I think was much better than recent years, possibly a sign things are getting back to 'normal' thundery plumes possibly returning properly, they need to change track more north sending some MCS's right up north too. It's the deep south plumes we haven't been getting. 

Yeah you're spot on there. Remember always seeing them trundle directly North, and they also remained in tact even when crossing the Channel. It was a guarantee that we would be in for some cracking action.

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That was a cracking good capture Arnie.....10/10

Cheers Blue....Shame about the shocking editing

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Clouds going up round this way and just noticed a strike just South of London.

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Nice start!

 

post-6667-0-26560000-1390916870_thumb.jp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Clouds going up round this way and just noticed a strike just South of London.

Yeah just got a nice snap of an Huge icy anvil and fluffy topped too! (over Heathrow ap way north sky)  right now very convective skies building up.. the flow is setting up for some interesting weather I think!

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definately gone colder the last hour or so here [sOMERSET ]Not much activity at present but just noticed some good looking clouds out west ,so any showers later could be active with hail possible .perhaps streamers setting up later this evening but trying to forecast areas hard call but good synoptics .lets enjoy it while we have it ,cheers gang .Posted Image

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That would be this one then... of which,the first bolt struck the transmmiter over

at Sutton Coldfield, while the second stronger bolt seemed to be buzzing around your ear`s

post-12214-0-87312700-1391023708_thumb.g

Edit; Have you seen Bobinbham` vid caps?....Stunning

Edit2; How charged up was the atmosphere over B`ham on sat

post-12214-0-87312700-1391023708_thumb.g

Edited by Arnie Pie
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Estofex Level one for tomorrow.... potential LEWP...

 

post-17315-0-74763500-1391116230_thumb.p

 

Storm ForecastValid: Fri 31 Jan 2014 06:00 to Sat 01 Feb 2014 06:00 UTCIssued: Thu 30 Jan 2014 19:46Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for N-France and S-UK mainly for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado event.

 

... N-France and UK ...Aforementioned depression approaches the area in a well occluded stage with ongoing separation of eastbound racing surface fronts and incoming high-level tropospheric/lower stratospheric air. So not much concern exists with fronts, which cross the area during the daytime hours from W to E. During the night hours, a strong impulse at 500 hPa circles the sub-940hPa depression and approaches W-UK until 00Z from the W/SW. This feature takes profit of access to the tropopause fold with a pool of drier high-level air approaching and probably crossing the cold front over UK. Further south, over N-France, forcing will be weaker and mid-levels quite warm, but better influx of modified subtropical air also increases concerns in weak MUCAPE build-up along the cold front.No surprise, shear will be intense, so forcing and CAPE will be the parameters which dictate how organized (in respect of convection) the cold front might be.Current thoughts are that the southern part of the front probably outruns dynamics but remains in a favourable shear environment. Organized narrow cold-frontal rain band structure or even an LEWP structure crosses N-France from W to E at 00Z onwards. Depending on how structured this front will be, strong to severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado event can occur. With departing forcing, a break-up of that front is expected betimes with ongoing but more isolated severe risk in the eastern part of the level area. Of interest is also rapid weakening of LL directional shear along the front over N-CNTRL France during the end of the forecast as frontolysis begins.S-UK has better forcing and meager BL moisture could be offset (at least partially) by dry slot/front interaction. Despite missing support of models, the concern of a LEWP-ish line exists, which races east. Intense shear at LL once again indicates an isolated tornado and severe wind gust risk. Also width of the warm sector (if not already occluded) dictates the potential severe risk and if some prefrontal backing of the LL wind field can occur. 

Edited by poseidon
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Thunder and lightning to my south, 2 flashes and several rumbles heard.

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Had a flash of lightning, thunder and hail about 2 hours ago nice surprise but very short

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