North West Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14

[Mokidugway]

How did you sneak that one through the swear filter? Lol..This one totally missed the swear filter haha, yes i know its because of an image. Im not offended at all ive been sharing it round on fb for the past two weeks lol

I was surprised myself !!!....

[Miamay]

Ha ha ha. Hope this week brings some decent weather to chat about. Off to bed night all xx

[SparkleS]

Conversations obviously crap then! Lol if the weathers all weve got to talk about

[Mokidugway]

Off to bed soon myself , meeting a man from the council am about 2000 ton of bolders he would like me to strategically place on a beach , oh this weather such fun , and it pays for holidays too !!!....

[Mokidugway]

Nite all off to break some rocks !!! Zzzzzzzzz ............

[feb1991blizzard]

I am not convinced by Tuesday's system bringing anything wintry away from high ground. Models seem to move it through briskly as well. I remember how March 1995 wintry spell began with a trough bringing initially rain then it suddenly turned to snow within a minute. That could happen I suppose.

 

Got about 5 inches in Birmingham from that, and it lasted a while too.

 

 

I am slightly concerned that any frontal event wont deliver, however the convective element looking decent apart from coastal areas. Lets go through a checklist.

 

 

850mb to 1000mb thickness, - OK, Met Office use 129dam for 50% chance and 125dam for 90% chance so a decent chance for all, a near 100% chance for areas with elevation according to that.

 

 

500 - 1000mb - 522dam. - beautiful.

 

 

 

Dew point - Beautiful for all - well below freezing.

 

 

850 mb  temps, ok for all (-7c),  obviously -10c to -12c would be better as would create more convection ala 17-18th dec style event, but beggars cant be choosers after this winter crapfest do far!

 

 

 

Now the sticking points, temperatures at surface around 2c on the coast although would still imagine some definite wintry potential, certainly in heavier bursts.

 

 

 

 

Here is the PPN type chart at 48 hours.

 

 

 

CONCLUSION : Could be some very heavy snow showers but too early to tell where the streams will set up exactly, some places could get hardly anything, some places it might not settle, i will stick my neck out though and say some areas will see some heavy snow showers and a covering.

[WillinGlossop]

Got about 5 inches in Birmingham from that, and it lasted a while too.

 

 

I am slightly concerned that any frontal event wont deliver, however the convective element looking decent apart from coastal areas. Lets go through a checklist.

 

 

850mb to 1000mb thickness, - OK, Met Office use 129dam for 50% chance and 125dam for 90% chance so a decent chance for all, a near 100% chance for areas with elevation according to that.

 

 

500 - 1000mb - 522dam. - beautiful.

 

 

 

Dew point - Beautiful for all - well below freezing.

 

 

850 mb  temps, ok for all (-7c),  obviously -10c to -12c would be better as would create more convection ala 17-18th dec style event, but beggars cant be choosers after this winter crapfest do far!

 

 

 

Now the sticking points, temperatures at surface around 2c on the coast although would still imagine some definite wintry potential, certainly in heavier bursts.

 

 

 

 

Here is the PPN type chart at 48 hours.

 

 

 

CONCLUSION : Could be some very heavy snow showers but too early to tell where the streams will set up exactly, some places could get hardly anything, some places it might not settle, i will stick my neck out though and say some areas will see some heavy snow showers and a covering.

Nice look at charts....hope its here but seen it downgraded within the final run for here so much this winter not holding much hope but we shall see.... Like i said if its falling outside ill be happier.... Fingers crossed for all and sundry

[feb1991blizzard]

Nice look at charts....hope its here but seen it downgraded within the final run for here so much this winter not holding much hope but we shall see.... Like i said if its falling outside ill be happier.... Fingers crossed for all and sundry

 

Ive just also looked at the met office map for 3 am in morning - take a look, probably be gone on next update as its raw model output but see what you think - heavy snow for all!!!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/uppermill-greater-manchester#?tab=map&map=SignificantWeather&fcTime=1392228085&zoom=9&lon=-2.01&lat=53.55

[SparkleS]

Apart from leyland! Lol

[feb1991blizzard]

Apart from leyland! Lol

 

You are, you are in between the one flake (light snow - preston) and the two flakes (heavy snow - chorley), don't get me wrong, I don't think that forecast will verify, it has heavy snow for wigan and lots of places, I just think its to far West, I doubt I will even see heavy snow this week apart from maybe a 10 minute non - settling burst, but in that chart, it does sort of suggest it.

[Weather-history]

Nothing wintry in Manchester Airport's latest TAF, just going for heavy rain.

long-TAF: EGCC 100502Z 1006/1112 17008KT 9999 FEW025 PROB40 TEMPO 1010/1023 7000 SHRA BKN012 BECMG 1012/1015 26010KT BECMG 1021/1024 18007KT BECMG 1103/1106 17017KT TEMPO 1104/1108 18020G30KT 7000 RA BKN013 PROB30 TEMPO 1104/1108 4000 +RA BKN009 BECMG 1106/1109 24014KT PROB40 TEMPO 1108/1112 23017G27KT 7000 SHRA

[Weather-history]

Crikey we actually managed an air frost, infact it is the coldest since November!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Nothing wintry in Manchester Airport's latest TAF, just going for heavy rain.long-TAF: EGCC 100502Z 1006/1112 17008KT 9999 FEW025 PROB40 TEMPO 1010/1023 7000 SHRA BKN012 BECMG 1012/1015 26010KT BECMG 1021/1024 18007KT BECMG 1103/1106 17017KT TEMPO 1104/1108 18020G30KT 7000 RA BKN013 PROB30 TEMPO 1104/1108 4000 +RA BKN009 BECMG 1106/1109 24014KT PROB40 TEMPO 1108/1112 23017G27KT 7000 SHRA

Yes- i feel altitude will play a big role over the coming days,im talking 250m plus so areas to the west of manchester look like getting very wet,even places such as ashton oldham will struggle to see any lying snow imo.

[pip22]

The BBC weather has put me sleet tomorrow at 3pm and snow from early hours on Thursday. I think its the now cast thing now for snow. It could happen any time from now on this week. maybe its due to the fact that the met office keeps focusing on the wind and the rain.

Edited February 10, 2014 by pip22

[itsnowjoke]

I have FROST!

[theskyatnight]

wow a frost for got what one looked like

[Carl46Wrexham]

Snow in North East Wales to low levels...you chaps in Cheshire etc heads up.

[itsnowjoke]

Frost melting

[davacr123]

Wow 2nd frost of the winter

[itsnowjoke]

Wow 2nd frost of the winter

Me too WHOOP.

[cheshire snow]

2 inches of snow have fallen in flintshire NE Wales and still coming down 

 

Checks window in anticipation and yes its Raining here LOL

 

C.S

[SP1986]

Rain!

[WillinGlossop]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_warnings.html

Woohoo will it come off though?

[I Cumbria Marra I]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_warnings.htmlWoohoo will it come off though?

"there is also a risk of some wet snow to low levels giving transient slushy deposits of up to 2 cm." Get in.

[WillinGlossop]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_warnings.html

Tomorrow and wednesday snow warnings!

Just updated!

Edited February 10, 2014 by WillinGlossop