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Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14


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Posted
  • Location: Perth (Huntingtowerfield, 3 miles West) asl 0m
  • Weather Preferences: A foggy and frosty morning with newly fallen pristine snow - Paradise!
  • Location: Perth (Huntingtowerfield, 3 miles West) asl 0m

    BBC Weather - nathin tomorrow, snow on high hills in Scotland on Friday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Motherwell, Lanarkshire
  • Location: Motherwell, Lanarkshire

    I don't like the look of the dry area surrounding Glasgow on that chartPosted Image

     

    The Reporting Scotland forecast for Friday mentioned 'snow to fairly low levels for a time' or something along those lines, but it did also feature that dry patch in the Glasgow area!!

    Edited by spindrift1980
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Am a bit model weary to be second guessing how much of this incoming front will be snow / rain.

     

    It is an absolute deluge and looking at the 0 degree line an utter pasting for those at elevation.

    Posted Image14020100_2912.gifPosted Image14020100_2912 (1).gifPosted Imagenmm-1-57-0.png

     

    Have you used the new zoomed in version of Meteociel's NMM? It's here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=5

     

    We'll see what the EURO4 spits out tomorrow, but it looks unlikely that there will be much low level snow on Friday.

     

    If you run through the precip charts on the link above a lot of the precip looks to be enhanced by orographic uplift, and the hatched snow indications are almost all over high ground along with the heaviest precip. How I wish I was 200m+ above sea level again :lol:

     

    Some places look good for snow on Saturday morning, including possibly Glasgow (going on the precip charts on the link above).

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    BBC Weather - nathin tomorrow, snow on high hills in Scotland on Friday.

     

    After their last effort at forecasting snow and failing I wouldn't worry too much about it HS :huh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    Hmmmmm not liking chances now for Friday .....the snow chase continues and don't look like winning on Friday :/ on the other hand likin this windows 8 split screen....football and weather

    post-15765-0-24078000-1391030754_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    cracking pic from Lorenzo on model thread.... LMAO....

     

    they are getting ready for one last ECM ****tease

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    I would take snow over her right now.....I'm like Renton..... Just wan hit c'mon just 1 cheeky wee hit even a rain to snow to rain hit...just wan

    Please

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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Have you used the new zoomed in version of Meteociel's NMM? It's here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=5

     

    We'll see what the EURO4 spits out tomorrow, but it looks unlikely that there will be much low level snow on Friday.

     

    If you run through the precip charts on the link above a lot of the precip looks to be enhanced by orographic uplift, and the hatched snow indications are almost all over high ground along with the heaviest precip. How I wish I was 200m+ above sea level again Posted Image

     

    Some places look good for snow on Saturday morning, including possibly Glasgow (going on the precip charts on the link above).

    'Scuse my ignorance but what is an orographic uplift?   Is it something Miss Kilmalcolm would wear?  or is it some sort of medical aid for the nether regions!? 

    Or is it something boring to do with the weather!?   I await your explanation with interest! Ooohhh...... the suspense!Posted Image

    Edited by Blitzen
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    Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

    Briefly a bit of rain was reported at the airport but nevertheless that is amazingly fifty consecutive days with rain. A quieter day of weather today with some sunny intervals and tomorrow should be dry and cold day. Although we'd like a good dumping of snow before the season ends I think we would all settle for just some dry, cold/frosty or sunny weather. Friday - a few alterations could make for a decent snow event but any low-level snow could be brief but I think the weekend could be more favourable for some heavy snow showers from the west- albeit it's still marginal.

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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

    'Scuse my ignorance but what is an orographic uplift? Sounds like some sort of medical aid for the nether regions!Posted Image

    Not a real expert as some on here but my understanding of it is as air is forced to rise over a hill it cools and water vapour in it (clouds ) condenses out of it giving more precipitatation over high ground that it passes over  be that rain or snow especially on the windward slope.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

    Cor just dropped in for a speed read and orographic uplifts, Miss Kilmacolm and ......tease models - thought i'd typed in the wrong web page lol!!

     

    Too much wine - its been one of those days !

    Edited by snowy owl
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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    stelvio pass rivaling the scottish hills

     

    http://www.solda2000.com/webstelvioen.htm 

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    showers coming off the east now and some showing as sleety/wintry in aberdeenshire on raintoday

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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

    A bit chilly here today but ground drying up again.Currently  2c. Looking at the seven day forecast temperature on here for my postcode  there is not much of a rise from current levels with snow falling about 500 feet up the hill from me on most days so the hills are going to get another big top up.

     

     The despondancy in the model thread obviously comes from the fact that  it will be milder  than this in South of England  whereas we seem to keep average winter conditions up here in the north though not specially cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    'Scuse my ignorance but what is an orographic uplift?   Is it something Miss Kilmalcolm would wear?  or is it some sort of medical aid for the nether regions!? 

    Or is it something boring to do with the weather!?   I await your explanation with interest! Ooohhh...... the suspense!Posted Image

     

    I think NL covered it. If it was caused by Miss Kilmacolm it would have been phwoarographic uplift but that's getting overly smutty.

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Looking at the current output the best chance of snowfall for lowland central and southern Scotland comes on Saturday morning, early doors :) The north looks a lot better, although the very far north and north-east may be too dry or too warm for snow.

     

    I'll repost this link as it seems to be a good one, time will tell how accurate it is :)

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=5

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Pittenweem, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Pittenweem, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife

    Morning all,

     

    As usual with the wind in the SE it's miserable. There may be -8c 850s overhead but down here on the coast that translates to +4c, cloudy with the odd spot of drizzle.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Wait for it...wait for it...don't get too excited when I tell you this.....but I actually drove through a "wintry shower" on the way to work earlier. OK so it was about 2 minutes of heavy, wet looking, graupel but the way this winters been so far that's a "major incident".

     

    Other than that excitement it's a cool (2-3C) under very grey skies but not feeling that cold as there's virtually no wind. Thankfully it's stopped raining as according to the wife the river Don at the edge of our estate was flooding well up over the fields yesterday. Too dark for me to see the extent when I got home last night but it's pretty much back in it's normal channel this morning.

     

    Was toying with heading up to Glenshee skiing this weekend, most probably Sunday, but not sure if it will be much fun. The winds as currently forecast might make it a little challenging. What and to whom do I need to sacrifice to ensure a cold, calm, blue-sky day on Sunday? Posted Image 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ancrum
  • Weather Preferences: HOT SUNSHINE!
  • Location: Ancrum

    I wondered why ye'd all gone quiet. You flitted without telling me!

    Can I go totally OT for one minute please - I have an American penpal with a 12 yr old son who wants to know more about Scotland and his Scottish roots. She wants me to give her websites that would be educational but not too heavy. Any ideas?  Can PM if that's less disruptive for the forum. Posted Image

    Edited by mardatha
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    Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

    Everyone is talking about Friday. However the cold bites back on Saturday and there is more potential for snow on Saturday than Friday. Fingers crossed!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Well it's officially been a very wet January http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25944823 and the month isn't even finished yet.

     

    Of course that doesn't surprise me in the least since I'm in one of the darker blue areas on the map

     

    Posted Image.

    Edited by Ravelin
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    Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife

    Light rain in Leven at 10am. Light showers of snowpellets here and up hill at 200masl, 11am-12pm. 1-2mm size, conical, falling fae Stratocumulus. Wind 130deg, 2 metre speed, 10mph. Dry-bulb 3C, wet-bulb 1.3C, dewpoint -2C.

    Edited by snow1975
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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Incredible contrast between the Lothians and the Cairngorms in the next 48 hours - over a foot of fresh snow for the ski resorts, bone dry in Edinburgh:

    Posted Image

    NMM suggests a reasonable snow risk for many tomorrow afternoon including the western central belt and bits of Fife:

    Posted Image Posted Image

    As N13 says though Saturday holds a lot of interest. NMM and the Euro4 rather different on this though - the Euro4 has it dry by 6am while the NMM brings in some heavy snow:

    Posted Image

     compared to Posted Image

    I generally tend to back the NMM for precipitation modelling, or at least I did over the NAE, especially because it has been very consistent in its modelling, and it would be much better as the precip. hits at pretty much the optimum time for snow. Accumulations map for the NMM is quite promising really, upwards of an inch for a big chunk of central Scotland, 10-15cm for upland D+G and that massive black hole sitting over the Cairngorms:

    Posted Image

    Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

    My aunt in Birmingham is reporting some snow down her way, not lying but apparently fairly heavy. The wind is a bit too far south of east to really drive showers inland this side of the Forth but at least further north is seeing some falling snow, albeit not exactly heavy.

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