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Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14


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Just pish here too, no sleet.

 

Currently 3.0/3.0C in Dyce and guess what, it's raining. Started out at 2.2/1.9C in Kemnay around 8:30am, dry, not sunny but bright(ish) with a little low-level mist around. Could see the low set of hills to the West and most of the snow cover from Sunday has gone and they just look speckled. Got progressively greyer the nearer to Dyce I got and now, as I said, the rain has rolled in.

 

Pessimism reigns and despite LS's excellent post I doubt I'll see any snow this week. Every online forecast I've looked at just shows more rain for here even if they do admit the temperature will drop on Thu/Fri. Eldest son's footy team have no match this weekend though so if the forecast plays ball then maybe a trip inland and upwards may be necessary to preserve my sanity.

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I am going to take my sledge and my wife (in that order) up to the highlands this weekend before the snow goes away and enjoy it. This will preserve my sanity and remind my mind that there are more colours than GREY!

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We could do with a dump of snow at low levels across Central Scotland to alert everyone to the cover at the ski areas!! Posted Image

Easy enough to find out how the resorts are faring without low level snow alerting people but I agree it does encourage people out. What I think may be more important for the resorts now would be a cool, calmer and probably even dry period of weather to allow them to dig out the tows and preserve the snow cover they have. Unfortunately of those three conditions cool (not cold) might be on the cards but it looks unlikely that calm and dry will be.

 

Oh, and so far this morning calling the weather 'wet' here would be an understatement.

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Well I'm actually still feeling rather positive about February, the models (even the best performers in medium range / long range) will always struggle to accurately predict the weather beyond about 200 hours. 

 

I think because of recent winters past we've come to think of the deepest cold as coinciding with the shortest days, but in reality the likelihood of high latitude blocking has, climatically speaking, always increased as we approach February and March. This occurs at the same time that the Arctic is also at its coldest due to seasonal lag, so very potent northerlies (Scotland's best winter set up assuming there's either a westerly or easterly tilt to the northerly, which there most often is) can often spring out of what seems to be nowhere.

 

I'd keep your chins up everyone, there's going to be snow this week for many of us and after that, well the truth is that no one really knows with any meaningful degree of certainty, but I like our chances based on our meteorological history (that is, our climate). Posted Image

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I think folks that, as I said before, unless or until that monster PV moves out of Canada, no winter will continue to be experienced here. As soon as I realised that USA was in for yet more brutal cold, then this was only going to play out one way. You know what's going to happen now don't you? I would lay money on the fact that once that PV finally gives up the ghost, that is when we will experience our belated winter. The clock is ticking yes, and probably anything in the future will be shortlived but, it will probably be just enough to raise our spirits and see us through to next winter. Let's face it,  we have a good chance of the next one being better,  as it certainly couldn't be any worse. Look at Europe, after 2 exremely hard winters, rivers freezing, villages buried, well, you know the story, it's nature's rebalance, and if I remember correctly, USA was extremely mild during at least one of those years.   Speaking of nature's rebalance, it cannot rain forever, and who knows we may just experience a dry, settled summer.   Onwards and upwards eh?Posted Image

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I think folks that, as I said before, unless or until that monster PV moves out of Canada, no winter will continue to be experienced here. As soon as I realised that USA was in for yet more brutal cold, then this was only going to play out one way. You know what's going to happen now don't you? I would lay money on the fact that once that PV finally gives up the ghost, that is when we will experience our belated winter. The clock is ticking yes, and probably anything in the future will be shortlived but, it will probably be just enough to raise our spirits and see us through to next winter. Let's face it,  we have a good chance of the next one being better,  as it certainly couldn't be any worse. Look at Europe, after 2 exremely hard winters, rivers freezing, villages buried, well, you know the story, it's nature's rebalance, and if I remember correctly, USA was extremely mild during at least one of those years.   Speaking of nature's rebalance, it cannot rain forever, and who knows we may just experience a dry, settled summer.   Onwards and upwards eh?Posted Image

You're a glass half full lady Blitzen. Now where's my prozac. Posted Image

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Well I'm actually still feeling rather positive about February, the models (even the best performers in medium range / long range) will always struggle to accurately predict the weather beyond about 200 hours. 

 

I think because of recent winters past we've come to think of the deepest cold as coinciding with the shortest days, but in reality the likelihood of high latitude blocking has, climatically speaking, always increased as we approach February and March. This occurs at the same time that the Arctic is also at its coldest due to seasonal lag, so very potent northerlies (Scotland's best winter set up assuming there's either a westerly or easterly tilt to the northerly, which there most often is) can often spring out of what seems to be nowhere.

 

I'd keep your chins up everyone, there's going to be snow this week for many of us and after that, well the truth is that no one really knows with any meaningful degree of certainty, but I like our chances based on our meteorological history (that is, our climate). Posted Image

 

 Am in total agreement with this post as March as far as I am concerned is a winter month up here when we can have lying snow from begining to end especially with your potent northerlies with ice days if there are plenty of snow showers and the fields are at their barest. Historically N and E winds are  much more frequent in the spring all the way to June with often the last fresh visible snow on the hills round about midsummers day (20th June?) and the next fresh visible snow around about the 20th of September so winter hardly leaves us at all. With the internet and digital cameras  fresh snow has been photographed on the hills around the 7th of July and the 24th of August on occasion in the last decade

 

 Even April with our usual cattle turnout date of 20th April and 15c we have often been caught out 3 days later with a north wind bringing  frequent grauple  and powder snow showers and the cattle huddling behind the stone walls. We always try to put them in south facing fields with dykes to the north for the first two weeks

 

As for the last two springs there was not enough grass to put them out before the middle of May. We only have a couple of months in summer when fresh snow is not visible on the hills round about and with the exceptional drifted depths up there this year and more to come they are going to look very wintry well into summer this year.

 

And just a final comment sat one of my  agri exams at college in Aberdeen 4 storys up  watching huge snow showers coming in off the North Sea on the 1st of June 1975.

Edited by Northernlights
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the word pish appears a coming phrase here today and I can confirm it is pishhhhhhhhhing down here......im a bit more optimistic HC that the last couple of breakdown events seen us in the right location....last year the snow event on the Friday (cant remember date) was the best sledging/snowball fights we had all winter and we were able to use the snow all weekend all be it in light drizzle.......interesting watching over next few days

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the word pish appears a coming phrase here today and I can confirm it is pishhhhhhhhhing down here......im a bit more optimistic HC that the last couple of breakdown events seen us in the right location....last year the snow event on the Friday (cant remember date) was the best sledging/snowball fights we had all winter and we were able to use the snow all weekend all be it in light drizzle.......interesting watching over next few days

 

That'll be the breakdown that delivered exactly hee haw here Posted Image

 

Judging by the latest forecasts I've seen I wouldn't hold out much hope for Friday round these parts either.

Edited by 101_North
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Snow depths over the Eastern Scottish hills could be another 150cm this week

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/186_35.gif

 

S

Looking on the bright side, even if I'm not getting my snow fix now then at least with the snow depths building up at altitude I'll still be able to get a snow fix in June by going hillwalking.

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 Am in total agreement with this post as March as far as I am concerned is a winter month up here when we can have lying snow from begining to end especially with your potent northerlies with ice days if there are plenty of snow showers and the fields are at their barest. Historically N and E winds are  much more frequent in the spring all the way to June with often the last fresh visible snow on the hills round about midsummers day (20th June?) and the next fresh visible snow around about the 20th of September so winter hardly leaves us at all. With the internet and digital cameras  fresh snow has been photographed on the hills around the 7th of July and the 24th of August on occasion in the last decade

 

 Even April with our usual cattle turnout date of 20th April and 15c we have often been caught out 3 days later with a north wind bringing  frequent grauple  and powder snow showers and the cattle huddling behind the stone walls. We always try to put them in south facing fields with dykes to the north for the first two weeks

 

As for the last two springs there was not enough grass to put them out before the middle of May. We only have a couple of months in summer when fresh snow is not visible on the hills round about and with the exceptional drifted depths up there this year and more to come they are going to look very wintry well into summer this year.

 

And just a final comment sat one of my  agri exams at college in Aberdeen 4 storys up  watching huge snow showers coming in off the North Sea on the 1st of June 1975.

I remember being 10 year old and reading in the headlines 'Snow in Flaming June'!

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I can sum up the model thread in two words, to save everyone the hassle of going in: "Winter's over". OK, so I cheated, that's really three words :huh:

 

If it was the 28th of February I might be inclined to agree given what the models are showing, but only a lightweight would give up at this point in time.

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