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South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 26/01/14 12z --------->


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Think as we are all suffering withdrawal symptoms we need to start a support group *walks in* hi my names lucy and ive been 340 days snow free I cant sleep at night im drawn to lamposts I regularly chart glimps and am fighting the urge to scrunch up hundreds of sheets of white papper into balls to throw at the kids

Sorry Loo but the next session of Snow hunters anon doesnt start until next Monday.

 

My names Lloyd and im a snow hunter!!

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Think as we are all suffering withdrawal symptoms we need to start a support group *walks in* hi my names lucy and ive been 340 days snow free I cant sleep at night im drawn to lamposts I regularly chart glimps and am fighting the urge to scrunch up hundreds of sheets of white papper into balls to throw at the kids

Hi Loo,

 

I'm Chris who helped to set up the Snow Depth spreadsheets and have now gone into hiding as I fear for my personal safety from that well know group call the MOD thread members. I now have a best friend called Julian Assange who is sharing the same room with me, he tells me that he has a load of information on the GFS model which he will release shortly.  I have told him not to bother as we already know it doesn't work and has been written by people who are buried under five foot snow drifts and it's always wrongPosted Image 

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Just had the same with some colleagues in Chicago. Talking about the 5 feet drifts in the company car park.

My hubby's family live in Michigan and I've seen FB statuses/pictures for weeks of snow snow snow!!! So jealous!!!xx
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Posted Image your aving a Giraffe Chris, Get up Early..... Bugger that im staying up...Been waiting 10 weeks for a bleeding wintry night with SNOW..To make sure I can stay up I have supplies......

 

Posted Imageproplus.jpgPosted Imageredbull.jpgPosted Imagesmelling salts.jpg

 

Posted Imagecoffee.jpgPosted Imagematch sticks.jpg

 

Why o why, Do I do it to myself, I'm knackered, All that for a bit of "Sleet" amPosted Image ...Anyway good night allPosted Image .Its all worn off now...Just have 2 minature square craters in my cheeks from the matchsticks and "NO" not those cheeks  lol...The ones below me eye's....Speak tomorrow. Bet there be a bleedin blizzard now, Whilst I'm asleep.Posted Image .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted Image Did you fall for it....Posted Image  I went to bed at 11.00 last Night, Woke up to Bare tree's,Green wet grass AND Black Tarmac....Boring, But hay ho, The end of the week could "COULD" be interesting. Your a good bunch really,Glad you all have a sense of Humour.Posted Image

Edited by Jason T
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heres 144 for all models

 

gfs

 

Posted Image

 

 

ecm

 

Posted Image

 

ukmo

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

 

thats it no further

 

there is going to be some headaches coming soon

 

 

gfs shows train after train of low pressure

 

 

ecm shows the block pushing the lows away

 

ukmo

 

that is interesting as could shove that second low

 

south

 

 

all in all i aint got a clue after

 

but i bet gfs is an outlier in the precipitation stakes

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Think as we are all suffering withdrawal symptoms we need to start a support group *walks in* hi my names lucy and ive been 340 days snow free I cant sleep at night im drawn to lamposts I regularly chart glimps and am fighting the urge to scrunch up hundreds of sheets of white papper into balls to throw at the kids

Don't be so stupid!

 

Do you think I was stupid enough to get up at .4.42 this morning and look to see if it was snowing? Well, do you?

 

 

 

*goes off yawning*

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well we  had  some sleet this  morning acc  saw a  snow  flake about 0845 when i was  a  work!!

Blimey, a good job you didn't blink when it came down,i reckon we will see a bit of sleet very soon.

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update for now

 

tonight

 

Posted Image

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

temps

 

Posted Image

 

not cold but maybe the odd colder spot

 

patchy drizzly murky night

 

fog possible overnight into the morning

 

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tomorrow

 

Posted Image

 

a gusty south west wind

 

temps

 

Posted Image

 

around 6-8 degrees

 

rainfall

 

Posted Image

 

 

raining most of the day on and off

 

some heavier bursts

 

the heaviest rain likely to be the very far south east of the region

 

a bleak horrid day

 

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tomorrow night

 

Posted Image

 

a breezy southerly flow

 

rainfall

 

Posted Image

 

rain around and persistant and some may be a tad heavy

 

the further north of the region you go the drier it is likely to be

 

temps

 

Posted Image

 

there is a slim chance if you miss the showers you may see a frost

 

but looks like cloud cover will stop that

 

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wednesday

 

Posted Image

 

a cold and breezy east-south east flow

 

temps

 

Posted Image

 

around 4-5 degrees

 

and feeling colder with the raw wind

 

rain-precipitation

 

Posted Image

 

looks wet in the morning

 

drying out in the afternoon

 

however

 

uppers dropping through the day

 

so wednesday night could be a cold one

 

wednesday night

 

Posted Image

 

a cold and breezy east-south east flow

 

temps

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

will be a very cold night

 

also precipitation very close to our south

 

this may generate some showers (wintry at times)

 

would be a now cast on that

 

 

thursday

 

Posted Image

 

very cold

 

the v cold air almost across all of the south east

 

temps around 3-4 degrees

 

a very cold easterly wind

 

precip is the tricky bit here

 

however if any falls it would likely be snow

 

more info on that tomorrow

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

be back later with the rest

 

john Posted Image

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hi all

 

just to show you again where differences are appearing on the models

 

this time at 120-144

 

gfs at 120

 

Posted Image

 

ukmo at 120

 

Posted Image

 

barring subtle differences these are quite close

 

 

however heres 144

 

gfs

 

Posted Image

 

ukmo

 

Posted Image

 

quite a difference there

 

the lows are obviously different strengths

 

however the difference i see there is the block to our east

 

if look at gfs that has clearly shoved the block a lot further east than ukmo

 

in fact ukmo has pushed the blocked slightly back towards us

 

 

heres the 850 uppers at 144

 

gfs

 

Posted Image

 

ukmo

 

Posted Image

 

note the differences to our north east

 

500 upper temps

 

gfs

Posted Image

 

ukmo

 

Posted Image

 

i have done this so you can see where the differences are at present

 

its going to be another model headache coming up shortly

 

because these changes can have quite an effect on where we go after

 

be interesting to see what run ecm follows next

 

anyway back soon with the fax charts

Some big differences there, and I don't see how the GFS got there.
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hi norfolk

 

i have given up with gfs

 

if your around just gone 11 i will show you why

 

just a point i would like to make

 

i have seen comments about the lows need to come through to change our pattern

 

1 i want ecm to be right because it is likely to be a lot dryer than gfs

 

2. it will keep europe cold if ecm is right giving us more of a chance down the line to tap into a cold easterly

 

what happens after 144 is anyones guess

 

thats why i am really watching the fax charts for now

as i think thats the safest route looking ahead

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hi norfolk i have given up with gfs if your around just gone 11 i will show you why just a point i would like to make i have seen comments about the lows need to come through to change our pattern 1 i want ecm to be right because it is likely to be a lot dryer than gfs 2. it will keep europe cold if ecm is right giving us more of a chance down the line to tap into a cold easterly what happens after 144 is anyones guess thats why i am really watching the fax charts for nowas i think thats the safest route looking ahead

It may be me, but GFS seems to struggle more than UKMO or ECM when there is even the threat of an EasterlyI'll await your update with trepidation....
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It may be me, but GFS seems to struggle more than UKMO or ECM when there is even the threat of an EasterlyI'll await your update with trepidation....

 

 

Its because the GFS Is always Westerly Biased NNW, It will favour the Atlantic 90% of the time. It is meant to be under going an major overhaul of the Model This year,I believe.

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Its because the GFS Is always Westerly Biased NNW, It will favour the Atlantic 90% of the time. It is meant to be under going an major overhaul of the Model This year,I believe.

 

Posted Image

 

 

yep its being recycled Posted Image

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I am not worrying over not seeing any sign of proper cold yet.our winters seem to have gotten later over the years.i think end feb beginning of march now seem to be the best time for cold.

look at last year

.did we even see a spring?

well yes in summer lol.

its all so topsey Turvey.

.we name the seasons.?the weather doesn't seem to care.

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