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South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 26/1/14 12z ------->


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Probably the best we shall do this winter but there is a definite winteryness mixed in with the rain and plenty of small icy splodges hitting the windows. 6.7c here but feels very much colder.I've put the heating on as well as my big chunky cardigan.

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It's wet but not as bad as it was forecasted here, I cannot see another 6 or 7 hours of rainfall going by the radar? The Euro 4 dropped ppn totals quite a bit today, the GFS and NMM upped them, Euro 4 looks closest.

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January's mammoth rainfall total getting an extra boost this afternoon! I estimate the clearance will be here by 18.00 by which time we will have had around 15mm on top of the current total of 230mm and then there maybe some heavy showers before midnight.

 

Then from midnight we start February's total, I'm going to make a prediction now that this February will be the wettest February since I began recording rainfall in 2006. It's usually a dryer month but the LOWs look set to keep on coming for at least the opening 10 days, the current leader is 2010 with 102.5mm .

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Issued at:

1222 on Fri 31 Jan 2014

Valid from:

2300 on Fri 31 Jan 2014

Valid to:

1100 on Sat 1 Feb 2014

Outbreaks of rain will clear eastwards on Friday evening and into the early hours of Saturday. As skies clear, temperatures will fall allowing icy stretches to form on untreated surfaces across northern and western Britain. The situation will be complicated by a wintry mix of showers following from the west. Snow accumulations will mainly occur on ground above around 200 m but some slight accumulations are possible to lower levels locally. In addition the wintry showers may wash off earlier treatment of surfaces increasing the risk of ice.  The public should be aware of the risk of difficult driving conditions.
The  frontal system which brought Friday's rain will clear eastwards on Friday night followed by a colder west or southwesterly airstream. This will bring a wintry mix of showers overnight and at first on Saturday. However, less cold air will follow to many parts from the southwest through Saturday morning confining the risk of snow to northern hills

Posted Image

Edited by J10
Further attempt to make it a bit more readable. can't be done, anyway, yes some SNOW a possibility for a few and into Sunday I reckon too.
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Well its raining...house is leaking again, kitchen floor like an ice rink due to drips off water failing on floor and i cant even see where they are coming from this time (wonders if my whole house is just gonna gush with unexpected water its been storing up in the attic...and i certainly aint climbing up to have a look cuz if i see a spider i will be flat out on my back passed out  Posted Image 

 

Rainfall today = 13.2mm

Monthly = 190mm

Max gust today = 33.7mph

 

I have renamed LP's to Low Pain (in the A***) Systems  Posted Image

 

Sorry for banter, gotta laugh, house a mess and i can actually say im not looking forward to spring/summer as going to be spent re-decorating the house

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Issued at: 1222 on Fri 31 Jan 2014

Valid from: 2300 on Fri 31 Jan 2014

Valid to: 1100 on Sat 1 Feb 2014

Outbreaks of rain will clear eastwards on Friday evening and into the early hours of Saturday. As skies clear, temperatures will fall allowing icy stretches to form on untreated surfaces across northern and western Britain. The situation will be complicated by a wintry mix of showers following from the west. Snow accumulations will mainly occur on ground above around 200 m but some slight accumulations are possible to lower levels locally. In addition the wintry showers may wash off earlier treatment of surfaces increasing the risk of ice.

The public should be aware of the risk of difficult driving conditions.

The frontal system which brought Friday's rain will clear eastwards on Friday night followed by a colder west or southwesterly airstream. This will bring a wintry mix of showers overnight and at first on Saturday. However, less cold air will follow to many parts from the southwest through Saturday morning confining the risk of snow to northern hills

:w00t:

No no no. I am in Wareham in lowland Dorset. If i miss this. . . .
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I wouldnt take much from forecasts its look out window and see....im 300 m up in nw england and had numerous days of sleet and few times ive seen snow fall but not lay.... I would reckon on not thinking its going to happen and hope for the best.....ie look out and if its snowing/ lying thank yourself lucky considering this winter so far.... Its been far too marginal for comfort.... If temps had been a few degrees south then we may of hit the jackpot today at lower elevations....ireland and scotland look to be the places to be tonight...

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Hope all you guys down southwest are ok,watching news and not good.Should have a cracking summer to balance it out er i hope lol.

From a snow starved west yorks!

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I know Xmetman is a netweather member and but I'm sure he won't mind me posting his latest blog regarding today's rainfall. Posted Image

http://xmetman.wordpress.com/2014/01/31/sw-rainfall-totals-31-january-2014/

Thanks for that, I find that very interesting indeed! While I agree with what he has written, I have noticed that whenever the MO say "10 to 20mm or "20 to 30mm" their official stations don't read anywhere near it sometimes, whereas amateur independent stations are usually closer to that number. I thought to myself today (read back a few of my posts) the front was passing fast, looked to be clearing quickly, which it has to some degree, i've had two or three 10 minute bursts if heavy drizzle which added 2mm each time, so i'm up to 19mm for the day, and it looks like a touch more coming in to the far south west. Thanks for posting it GTLTW. Edited by Mapantz
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Thanks for that, I find that very interesting indeed! While I agree with what he has written, I have noticed that whenever the MO say "10 to 20mm or "20 to 30mm" their official stations don't read anywhere near it sometimes, whereas amateur independent stations are usually closer to that number. I thought to myself today (read back a few of my posts) the front was passing fast, looked to be clearing quickly, which it has to some degree, i've had two or three 10 minute bursts if heavy drizzle which added 2mm each time, so i'm up to 19mm for the day, and it looks like a touch more coming in to the far south west. Thanks for posting it GTLTW.

 

Yes, they seem to have cut so many of the weather stations, that nowadays they seemingly have to rely on Environment Agency stations and the like. I remember Graham Easterling from Penzance over on uk.sci.weather getting especially irate about the situation a few years back with regard to the closing of the stations in Cornwall. Can't say I blame him, as you wouldn't want another Boscastle or St.Merryn storm and receive no prior warning. Hopefully things aren't as bad as we might believe them to be, perhaps fergie could enlighten us further?

 

As for today in Newbury, the Temperature is rising well with 8.4c the current reading. I've received 12.0mm and counting and the monthly total is now bang on 170mm, the most I've ever recorded since Autumn 2008 when I started recording with an AWS. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Oh my, there's some beefy showers out towards the SW approaches right now with perhaps T&L, hail, sleet, snow and the kitchen sink all available and heading Eastwards in time. I wouldn't go into the MOD thread without suitable protection from the elements currently as it's grim as outside in there! Nick F's recent posting would also be my reading of the current situation FWIW. I do hope the government and its appropriate departments are heeding the messages from UKMO, the Beeb and from those "in the know", the forthcoming ten days are set to become very very difficult for many. My hopes are clinging on a rise of Air Pressure being around for mid-February time, however in saying that, I am clutching at straws with that statement, it's just the ensembles spreads perhaps offer some respite by then. Posted Image

 

Take care all, enjoy it if you can because there will be plenty of "weather" to discuss all over the UK in the coming days. Posted Image Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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They say the weather often balances Itself out & It wouldn't surprise me one bit if we see a cold early spring with snowfall, I'd usually snap that up as it's not too late for snowfall in march, even imby at sea level but after the winter we've had and the amount of rainfall, I'm hoping this spring is high pressure dominated and hopefully warm!!

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