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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight

    So despite the 0Z being wildly an outlier the 06Z does produce a cold E,ly in the end.

     

    Shall explain later why I feel an E,ly is on its way and the key period is much earlier around +96 to +120.

    There does seem to have been a subtle trend to a quieter colder spell around this timeframe which has been a recurring feature over the last few days. Are we gradually entering into a change of type 'beneath the radar'. Is the recent short but significant strat warming playing its hand.  

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Well the word irony perhaps doesn't get used as much as it should around here-

     

    After forecasting the atlantic ridge Linking to the Svalbard high & discussing it with JH the GFS was flat as a witches t*t for the last 48 hours. No hope of an atlantic ridge.

     

    Just as the ECM gives up the ghost the GFS plots 2 almost identical runs from the atlantic -

     

    06z-

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021306/gfsnh-0-144.png?6

    00z-

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014021300-0-150.png?0

     

    Look at the 2 anomalies-

     

    Anomaly wise this is what the commentary was about in terms of where they would end up

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014021306-0-174.png?6

     

    Svalbard down to Eastern Greenland-

     

    At the very least,the deep cold filters into Northern Europe- which is crucial- the Svalbard high will deflect the PV lobe SSW, it the link up of highs is there it holds the track SSW, if not the cold leaks just west towards Northern Greenland.

     

    The immediate chances of it getting to the UK at 168 are low, however its a big step forward if the track of the cold air is deflected into Europe, if it does then its lurking should the upstream pattern be condusive for filtering it west, if it doesn't get into Europe & heads to Greenland like this-

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014021300/navgemnh-0-180.png?13-06

     

    then its game over.

     

    Much to ponder over the next few day- notably

     

    * Ongoing flooding issues & the weekend storm

    * The end of WInter approaching

    * The difficult period of modelling this winter has proved...

     

     

    S

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    Little support for the GFS in its ensembles though, nor the ECM, NAEFS or GEM ensemble means so wouldn't pay much attention to the OP into FI.

     

    ECM day 10 Posted Image

     

    NAEFS day 12 Posted Image GEFS Posted Image  GEM Posted Image

     

    Good agreement there on continued unsettled weather, even signs of it strengthening again into the end of the month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

    Poor across the board, like you say we normally rely on the ECM for a bit of stability as its rarely goes for extremes of what could happen so it is normally a safe bet to be there or there abouts. Prety sure the unheard of weather we have had this winter will of thrown the Models somewhat, so many curve balls to contend with.

     

    it was hopefull until last night when it became clear that getting any block setting up to give us a taste of winter is like like trying to build a sand castle where the waves break. The tide is slowly turning but it will soon be getting too late in the day for wanting to play on the beach  

    and with the way things are going, we won't receive any noticeable cold until April/May by which time it will be far too late for any appreciable snow and just means winter is prolonged for another few months rather than early spring warmth.  God i really hate this winter now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Weak cyclonic dominance seems the order of the day but the ECWMF does point towards pressure finally building.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: SW London
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: SW London

    ECM ensemble mean spread seems to show clustering regarding the leading edge of the mid-Atlantic trough at T144-168.

     

    So a number of solutions have a more negative tilt to the trough, which can only be a good thing presumably?

     

     

     

    Posted Image

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    While I know it’s not impossible to get cold winter synoptic in March into April, as only last year showed, I am very dubious as to this year’s prospects, despite hints from the models

     

    For me this is only possible if the door has already been opened, or at least several attempts to barge it down have already been made and the door is weakened and more susceptible to someone looking to gain entry.

    But this winter there’s been no  barging on the door.  The door’s not even been found!  And right now the models are doing little more than suggest to me that the door may have been located , much less committed to even knocking on it politely to get in!

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    Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m

    If you're looking for a sustained Scandi High possibly, but I'd say a chilly northerly blast is as likely as ever for March and/or April.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Weak cyclonic dominance seems the order of the day but the ECWMF does point towards pressure finally building.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Unfortunately it has no ensemble support

     

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    back to the models indeed.

     

    Thanks for the long reply- a little wasted perhaps as I don't really read anything that anyone writes on here yourself included-only the odd post that I happen to glance at or anyone that replies to me - sorry about that.

     

     I only replied to yours really & bolded it as I thought it was wrong, plus what you've added today doesn't really change my opinion- your forecasting persistence combined with a hindcast of this current winter.....

    Maybe translate that to a forecast for next winter.....

     

     

    best of luck with it.- back on topic.

     

    S

    Edited by Steve Murr
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