Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[SMU]

I am a well known cold weather and snow fan as much as anyone on here and probably at least as much as you as well, cooling climate, but objectivity comes first, imo, I think in this thread, and most especially atm in the continuing atrocity of the winter pattern which has kept managing to attain levels of sustained high impact and severity that are as deeply worrying as they are astounding.

 

Previous posts over the last week or so have attested to a relaxation of the most extreme conditions after the next storm system on Friday/Saturday wreaks even further havoc, but that simply means in the first instance that severe gales and storm force winds become less likely. One would like to call that a start towards improvement, and of course it is in terms of one dangerous hazard at least removed from the equation - but does the modelling look any more conduisive to making the rain stop and easing the horrific flood problems as it does in bringing in any cold spell such as you keep predicting with such confidence?

 

Its easier imo at at least to answer the question about any cold 'potential' first. The evidence from the stratosphere continues to suggest that sequential warmings as seen higher up continue to flatter to deceive and are not propogating to the surface, and also failing to sustain themselves and make any difference to our surface weather in the troposphere.

 

Vorticity remains firmly to our NW and truly significant amplification also remains in the wrong sector of our NH to influence us downstream and there is good ensemble agreement for this vorticity energy to continue to leak depressions downstream over the coming 10 to 15 day period albeit with less intensity than present.

 

It seems clear to me at least, that the latest attempted split in the pattern and amplification wrt a weak surface rise in pressure is very unlikely indeed to lead to the sort of appealing scenario the ECM suggested this morning and the pattern will stay too flat for the foreseeable future, albeit with the temperature gradients reduce somewhat stateside the cyclonic activity is set to become less intense.

 

There remains scope for eventual pressure rises down the line towards months end as suggested previously for reasons given then - so a real improvement may finally occur in terms of the weather painfully slowly drying up. At this stage, imo at least, that has a much better chance of happening first rather than any change to a much colder last third of February.

 

Its a drying up of the pattern which remains too far ahead than ideally wanted for most if not all of the country and that should take precedence I think over chasing phantom easterlies - and that is coming from someone like me who is one of the biggest fans there can be of them.

 

 

Hi Tamara - I think to be fair whilst its all nicely written your basing all your assumptions on persistence rather than anything scientific.

 

There is one key thing that you, me or the met cant forecast with any confidence is when things will change, & this is the problem & one that will plague us with years to come.

 

In terms of the overnight ECM evolution & what you've presented (BOLD), theres nothing there that will actually stop the ridge moving North if that's whats going to happen.- & in reality makes all the science & all the wonderful wordy posts that you or I may punt forward- it makes it mute.

 

Take Dec 27 1984- this looks horrific.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1984/archivesnh-1984-12-27-0-0.png

 

492 heights over eastern Canada, deep deep depression aligned towards the UK - looks pretty hopeless.

 

However against the odds an atlantic ridge gets NE

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1984/archivesnh-1984-12-29-0-0.png (29th)

 

move onto the 2nd of Jan

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1985/archivesnh-1985-1-1-0-0.png

 

All of a sudden we have a modest Svalbard high & an atlantic ridge culminating in this

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1985/archivesnh-1985-1-4-12-0.png

 

 

The bottom line is this winter has been cr*p, but at some point it will change & at that point it will make all the posts that forecast persistence look stupid.

Tonight may be it, we may wipe the whole of winter out- but just because there is vorticity to the NW & or no imminent change- doesn't mean a change isn't imminent.......

 

S

Edited February 12, 2014 by Steve Murr

[joggs]

Hi Tamara - I think to be fair whilst its all nicely written your basing all your assumptions on persistence rather than anything scientific.

 

There is one key thing that you, me or the met cant forecast with any confidence is when things will change, & this is the problem & one that will plague us with years to come.

 

In terms of the overnight ECM evolution & what you've presented (BOLD), theres nothing there that will actually stop the ridge moving North if that's whats going to happen.- & in reality makes all the science & all the wonderful wordy posts that you or I may punt forward- it makes it mute.

 

Take Dec 27 1984- this looks horrific.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1984/archivesnh-1984-12-27-0-0.png

 

492 heights over eastern Canada, deep deep depression aligned towards the UK - looks pretty hopeless.

 

However against the odds an atlantic ridge gets NE

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1984/archivesnh-1984-12-29-0-0.png (29th)

 

move onto the 2nd of Jan

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1985/archivesnh-1985-1-1-0-0.png

 

All of a sudden we have a modest Svalbard high & an atlantic ridge culminating in this

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1985/archivesnh-1985-1-4-12-0.png

 

 

The bottom line is this winter has been cr*p, but at some point it will change & at that point it will make all the posts that forecast persistence look stupid.

Tonight may be it, we may wipe the whole of winter out- but just because there is vorticity to the NW & or no imminent change- doesn't mean a change isn't imminent.......

 

S

Totally agree and not because i want it to happen,the averages say mild will rule the roost at these precarious moments of modeling but the weather knows no rules and nothing is a given and anything possible.Great charts to look at them Steve

[Northernlights]

All credit to the models regarding today's storm and picking it up when they did.

 

I have done a quick browse around the forums and so far have seen no reference to the fact that today's LP would seem to have had a sting jet associated with it. Hence the Met Office Red Alert. Certainly the satellite presentation earlier gave every impression that this was indeed happening.

 

Anyway, the models, this coming weekend's LP does indeed look to be the last major storm for the time being. As ever, the GFS appears to exaggerate intensities, but after today, who can say for sure!

 

Beyond that, weakening flow - gradually - but stronger references from the main models from time to time of more of an anticyclonic trend, although the GFS reverts to its usual zonality on the 12Z. I tend to think we may yet see an easterly, perhaps not much of one, but quite honestly, we just need a break from this interminable rain, so any pressure build would be welcome.

 

We could see more noticeable 500mb height rises spreading from the SW to support HP build up to the NE and N, if some troughing occurs off the US east coast. There is some support from the lesser models for this idea. I think this weekend could see the turning point for a change in pattern so it will be interesting to see model trends at that time.

 

One word I don't expect to hear this year is "drought"!

 

 With the exception of a small area in the north of Scotland on the south side of the Moray Firth where  months of Southerly gales in the rain shadow of the Cairngorms have resulted in only 60%of our normal winter rainfall leaving ground ploughed in November looking like this 2 days ago and dust blowing on the farm road as the postman drove up it this morning

[Mr Frost]

It is becoming a bit tiresome reading posts telling us not to look or wish for more extreme weather or even snow/ cold as this would only exacerbate certain situations in parts of the country.

This is a weather forum, telling people not to wish or look for the above is like telling Cristiano Ronaldo not to play football or a cleaner not to actually clean.

Like every other person on here I have sympathy and feel for the folk who are directly affected by all that has gone on storm wise over the past couple of months.

Would I get excited if I had been in the red warning area today? Would I be excited if 40cms of snow was forecast? Would I get excited if I lived in Oklahoma and an EF5 tornado was bearing down on my town? 100% hell yes to all of the above.

What will be will be, there is nothing any of us can do about it.

I will continue to hunt for wintry weather up until the end of March...whether it be frost, ice or blizzards.

Still plenty of time - the models have been woeful this Winter leading most of us up the garden path. Fair play to the Metoffice, spot on so far.

[abruzzi spur]

It is becoming a bit tiresome reading posts telling us not to look or wish for more extreme weather or even snow/ cold as this would only exacerbate certain situations in parts of the country.This is a weather forum, telling people not to wish or look for the above is like telling Cristiano Ronaldo not to play football or a cleaner not to actually clean.Like every other person on here I have sympathy and feel for the folk who are directly affected by all that has gone on storm wise over the past couple of months.Would I get excited if I had been in the red warning area today? Would I be excited if 40cms of snow was forecast? Would I get excited if I lived in Oklahoma and an EF5 tornado was bearing down on my town? 100% hell yes to all of the above.What will be will be, there is nothing any of us can do about it.I will continue to hunt for wintry weather up until the end of March...whether it be frost, ice or blizzards.Still plenty of time - the models have been woeful this Winter leading most of us up the garden path. Fair play to the Metoffice, spot on so far.

Not sure about this - let's say you love extreme heat and are living in south east Australia where there are fires raging threatening lives and livelihoods.  Accepting that you can't do anything about the weather, the winds, the heat, is it still ok to 'want' the extremes that generate and perpetuate the fires? I love snow and I love storms but I have had enough of the latter and I don't care about the former this winter and I would feel bad about getting excited about either.

 

It's not an easy one though, for sure, all on here are interested in the weather.  I'm interested in music as well, for example, but I wouldn't want people that have had more than enough Chas and Dave to be subjected to months more of it just because I like it (I don't by the way, its just an illustration)

 

AS

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm still thinking that there is another potential severe weather event/storm to come back end of next week hence why I'm not convinced of porper height to NE holding, like I said re last nights 18z...it still had gales crossing the UK.  Today we some having the trough cross the northern half of the UK.

For me there is more trouble upwind to come, and this 'valentine' storm isn't the last one yet.  I'd love an easterly.....

 

BFTP   

[Long haul to mild]

Lots of talk of methodologies on here tonight. I respect all those who use the tools available to produce a forecast but as I firmly believe that weather is ultimately chaotic, all methods will be fallible.

I personally don't subscribe to the idea that because it's been raining and windy for weeks, then it will remain raining and windy for weeks. It has to end at some point. Whether that cessation will happen quickly enough or in the right way to get snow to the UK is another matter. Let's face it, if the GFS was correct in deep FI all the time with its persistent forecasts of zonality, we would never get any dry days, even in summer!

Changes can and do crop up at short notice, and Feb can't yet be written off, even if the usual forecasting methods suggest little hope for a substantive cold spell. We then still have March, which we all know is often colder and snowier than December.

Have faith; someone's going to light a bonfire in Paraguay later, and that little parcel of warmed air will rise and rise........and who knows what happens next?

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021218/gfsnh-0-66.png?18

 

18z carries on where the 12z left off- trending more towards the atlantic ridge,  you cannot see it yet but at 66 there is more amplification upstream-

If you want to see it look at the 18z 66 V the 12z 72 over the extreme NE part of the US & you will see the angle towards the pole is about another 5 degrees north..

 

S

[OldMetMan]

 

 

 

 

One word I don't expect to hear this year is "drought"!

 

 With the exception of a small area in the north of Scotland on the south side of the Moray Firth where  months of Southerly gales in the rain shadow of the Cairngorms have resulted in only 60%of our normal winter rainfall leaving ground ploughed in November looking like this20140211_16465420140211_01.JPG 2 days ago and dust blowing on the farm road as the postman drove up it this morning

My apologies, Northernlights, I should have qualified that statement with "here in the south" or such like. I realise the rainfall anomaly in parts of Scotland is heading in the opposite direction than here in the south. But I do think it's easier for your part of the world to make up a shortfall in rainfall than it is here in the south to lose the effects of so much rainfall.

[Tamara]

Hi Tamara - I think to be fair whilst its all nicely written your basing all your assumptions on persistence rather than anything scientific.

 

There is one key thing that you, me or the met cant forecast with any confidence is when things will change, & this is the problem & one that will plague us with years to come.

 

In terms of the overnight ECM evolution & what you've presented (BOLD), theres nothing there that will actually stop the ridge moving North if%2

Edited February 12, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Tamara]

What happened to my post reply?

[NickyB]

What happened to my post reply?

It got blown away

[abruzzi spur]

What happened to my post reply?

good question Tamara!  I now appear to have 'liked' a post that says nothing - I know my life is dull but I'm not that easily pleased......

 

Hopefully you can get it back

 

Cheers

 

AS

[Northernlights]

My apologies, Northernlights, I should have qualified that statement with "here in the south" or such like. I realise the rainfall anomaly in parts of Scotland is heading in the opposite direction than here in the south. But I do think it's easier for your part of the world to make up a shortfall in rainfall than it is here in the south to lose the effects of so much rainfall.

Absolutely no need to apologise I was just trying to make the point that we are experiencing unprecedented extremes of weather within the British Isles this winter because of a locked weather pattern.

 

 Just 25 miles to my south the Cairngorm Mountains have record breaking snow depths measured in metres which are burying the ski lifts and funicular railway!!!!!

[OldMetMan]

Absolutely no need to apologise I was just trying to make the point that we are experiencing unprecedented extremes of weather within the British Isles this winter because of a locked weather pattern.

 

 Just 25 miles to my south the Cairngorm Mountains have record breaking snow depths measured in metres which are burying the ski lifts and funicular railway!!!!!

Thanks Northernlights. The snow sounds incredible! It does still beg the question of what on earth will spring and summer be like? These extremes are bound to have long-term effects throughout the year, not to mention the fact that, sooner or later, there will be a balancing. I hope you don't have to tolerate a wet, cold summer!

[Purga]

Blimey, here comes another storm next week on 18z

Maybe not quite so intense and windy but plenty of rain

 

[Jason M]

This little feature looks nasty. Its a bomb, a rain bomb and because its not a deep low it would be a 12-18 hour downpour!! Lets hope this doesn't happen as still a long way away (albeit very plausible).

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=174&code=0&mode=0

Edited February 12, 2014 by Jason M

[Purga]

This little feature looks nasty. Its a bomb, a rain bomb and because its not a deep low it would be a 12-18 hour downpour!! Lets hope this doesn't happen as still a long way away (albeit very plausible).

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=174&code=0&mode=0

Those onshore winds in N Cornwall & Devon as well as the Channel look pretty deadly

Edited February 12, 2014 by Purga

[Captain Shortwave]

Oh well the GFS shows the half way house solution between a cold block and a much milder south westerly shown tonight on the ECM, yep it's low pressure pushing through the UK.... AGAIN!!!

Story of the winter really if this is the way forward, never classic zonality due to reasonable arctic blocking which despite the horrendous weather here has actually existed for a good part of the winter. It's just been steering near enough everything straight through us which is the problem, and when it hasn't it's been extreme jet streaks coming out of Canada.

[Tim Bland]

Just what we need ... A 940 low! Looks like a chunk of. the PV!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0

[EML Network]

I'm still thinking that there is another potential severe weather event/storm to come back end of next week hence why I'm not convinced of porper height to NE holding, like I said re last nights 18z...it still had gales crossing the UK.  Today we some having the trough cross the northern half of the UK.

For me there is more trouble upwind to come, and this 'valentine' storm isn't the last one yet.  I'd love an easterly.....

 

BFTP   

 

I remember you mentioning this a few days back, and low and behold as it right on queue the GFS throws up another intense low for mid week. 

 

if it comes to pass that way I'd say you done well to spot the potential when nothing we were seeing in the charts were indicting it :-)

[stratty]

Blimey, here comes another storm next week on 18z

 

Maybe not quite so intense and windy but plenty of rain

 

"Snow to the left of me, more snow to the right.....stuck in the middle with you!"   dum de dummmmmmmmmmmmm Zzzzzzzzzz

[Purga]

18z ends on - yes you guessed it - a stormy note!

 

Incredible...

[cooling climate]

Hi Tamara - I think to be fair whilst its all nicely written your basing all your assumptions on persistence rather than anything scientific.

 

There is one key thing that you, me or the met cant forecast with any confidence is when things will change, & this is the problem & one that will plague us with years to come.

 

In terms of the overnight ECM evolution & what you've presented (BOLD), theres nothing there that will actually stop the ridge moving North if that's whats going to happen.- & in reality makes all the science & all the wonderful wordy posts that you or I may punt forward- it makes it mute.

 

Take Dec 27 1984- this looks horrific.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1984/archivesnh-1984-12-27-0-0.png

 

492 heights over eastern Canada, deep deep depression aligned towards the UK - looks pretty hopeless.

 

However against the odds an atlantic ridge gets NE

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1984/archivesnh-1984-12-29-0-0.png (29th)

 

move onto the 2nd of Jan

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1985/archivesnh-1985-1-1-0-0.png

 

All of a sudden we have a modest Svalbard high & an atlantic ridge culminating in this

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1985/archivesnh-1985-1-4-12-0.png

 

 

The bottom line is this winter has been cr*p, but at some point it will change & at that point it will make all the posts that forecast persistence look stupid.

Tonight may be it, we may wipe the whole of winter out- but just because there is vorticity to the NW & or no imminent change- doesn't mean a change isn't imminent.......

 

S

Unfortunately with the example you give of end of December 84 there was a major warming with a

SSW in early Jan and an imediate trop response. In fact it was in a very similar locale to the warming

we have just had albeit far stronger.

[Jason M]

Certainly nothing cold on the agenda tonight. Will be interesting as always to see the ensembles, but if they look like the last few sets the morning should put the whole easterly issue to bed sadly.

 

Lots more rain and wind. Maybe the SE seeing less extreme rainfall which might help the Thames Valley, but the focus moving to the NW (and still the SW).

 

If we don't lose these low heights before the end of the month convective rainfall will become a problem as low heights, strong sun and lots of water equal big showers / thunderstorms IMHO.