Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[nick sussex 59,294]

The GFS is more favourable upstream but deepens that low in the earlier timeframe which causes a more northerly track, but this could develop interestingly for coldies even with the earlier set back.

[Mucka 16,385]

GFS started by having Fridays low move across central England on the 00z then it moved it South to Southern England in the 06z then back further North still in the 12z to cross Northern England and now in the 18z it is crossing Scotland - take your pick.

 

Other than that though it has finally picked up the small ridge showing on other ouput.

 

[nick sussex 59,294]

GFS started by having Fridays low move across central England on the 00z then it moved it South to Southern England in the 06z then back further North still in the 12z to cross Northern England and now in the 18z it is crossing Scotland - take your pick.

 

Other than that though it has finally picked up the small ridge showing on other ouput.

 

If it's overdone the low then the track will be further south and the ridging from Iceland will add a bit more forcing on the low which runs ese, overall even with the deep low this looks more like the UKMO/JMA.

[SMU 80,650]

The GFS fanboys should look over the last 24 hours- as that's how long its taken the model to catch the UKMO & JMA / ECM up tonight--

 

now at 144-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021118/gfsnh-0-144.png?18

 

NB Ive included the ECM above- because its had the ridge, however its been fast to break it down.

 

All models close at 120, thereafter differing solutions in terms of how far & how fast east the atlantic progresses. The Grojean (GEM) model being the slowest....

 

Pretty much last chance saloon for Winter....

[Cloud 10 7,385]

The new 120 fax is out and is very close to the ukmo raw output which is no bad thing.

 

 

slider alert!

[bluearmy 42,677]

Bit surprised that there wasn't a comment that the ECM ens mean at day 6 was more wintry than the op. the spreads also potentially wintry at day 6/7.

We my see some pretty snowy charts at T144 tomorrow.

The ECM ens do then bring the Atlantic through on mean and spread days 8-10

[East_England_Stormchaser91 5,263]

Whatever the state and track of Fridays low, the rain is always going to be an imminent problem with this, as it is yet again sourced from the Southern North Atlantic with lots of tropical maritime air associated with it. If it is deeper, then at least it will likely push through a bit quicker. I can see this low carving through the heart of the country (Dorset/Devon up through the Midlands and out over E Yorkshire/N Lincolnshire). This really is the last thing people want to be seeing at the moment in regard to the flooding situation.

[Severe Siberian icy blast 4,227]

The GFS fanboys should look over the last 24 hours- as that's how long its taken the model to catch the UKMO & JMA / ECM up tonight-- now at 144-http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021118/gfsnh-0-144.png?18 NB Ive included the ECM above- because its had the ridge, however its been fast to break it down. All models close at 120, thereafter differing solutions in terms of how far & how fast east the atlantic progresses. The Grojean (GEM) model being the slowest.... Pretty much last chance saloon for Winter....

Agreed , really at that time frame t144 absolutely everything is up for grabs at this point , the northern profile looks good at that point , just need the, hights to build and strengthen , or at least remain strong enough to push the lows coming off the Canadian vortex to dive south east , if we can get low pressure into Southern Europe then the likelihood is other systems coming off it will follow suit .

[nick sussex 59,294]

The GFS fanboys should look over the last 24 hours- as that's how long its taken the model to catch the UKMO & JMA / ECM up tonight--

 

now at 144-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021118/gfsnh-0-144.png?18

 

NB Ive included the ECM above- because its had the ridge, however its been fast to break it down.

 

All models close at 120, thereafter differing solutions in terms of how far & how fast east the atlantic progresses. The Grojean (GEM) model being the slowest....

 

Pretty much last chance saloon for Winter....

I agree this is the final chance before the saloon shuts for the season. No operational has pulled that chunk of low heights across to Norway between 120 and 144hrs apart from the ECM, even the GFS has not done that so we have to hope the ECM is wrong tomorrow.

[SMU 80,650]

Yep ECM discarded tonight as is the GEM-

 

JMA / UKMO blend ( & NOW GFS 18z favoured)-  but low confidence.

 

at 186 my modest Iceland high has linked with the Svalbard high- something I mentioned to JH earlier....

 

S

[fergieweather 27,794]

Whatever the state and track of Fridays low, the rain is always going to be an imminent problem with this, as it is yet again sourced from the Southern North Atlantic with lots of tropical maritime air associated with it. If it is deeper, then at least it will likely push through a bit quicker. I can see this low carving through the heart of the country (Dorset/Devon up through the Midlands and out over E Yorkshire/N Lincolnshire). This really is the last thing people want to be seeing at the moment in regard to the flooding situation.

Spot-on in every respect. V worrying. Winds troubling too but detail currently tricky. Snow issues in north for uplands (UKMO expect no such problem at lower elevation due to very effective boundary mixing).

[Ali1977 9,585]

Very wintery looking charts for later next week, plenty of snow with -6c uppers

[cooling climate 1,260]

I certainly would not be shouting about the ECM this winter. Compared to what we have come to

expect from the model I think it has had a very poor season.

I said in an earlier post that the amplification between t120 and t168 is far from settled and

because of this it is harder to look beyond a week with any confidence. The pub run holds a lot of

interest tonight and may well be showing the ECM the way forward. Then again it could be just that

the pub run.

Edited February 11, 2014 by cooling climate

[johnholmes 31,151]

Yep ECM discarded tonight as is the GEM-

 

JMA / UKMO blend ( & NOW GFS 18z favoured)-  but low confidence.

 

at 186 my modest Iceland high has linked with the Svalbard high- something I mentioned to JH earlier....

 

S

 

true enough Steve but probability of it actually doing that is % wise, or perhaps what effect will it have on the UK weather?

Edited February 11, 2014 by johnholmes

[Jason M 2,957]

Bit surprised that there wasn't a comment that the ECM ens mean at day 6 was more wintry than the op. the spreads also potentially wintry at day 6/7.

We my see some pretty snowy charts at T144 tomorrow.

The ECM ens do then bring the Atlantic through on mean and spread days 8-10

 

Yep, its certainly not a complete outlier run which is a surprise. lets see if any GEFS members go for similar.

[SMU 80,650]

true enough Steve but probability of it actually doing that is % wise, or perhaps what effect will it have on the UK weather?

 

I dunno- its either 100% or 0% in reality.....

 

Seems finely balanced from the models perspective tonight........

 

NAVGEM looks cold with a slider

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014021118/navgemnh-0-144.png?11-23

 

S

[johnholmes 31,151]

I dunno- its either 100% or 0% in reality.....

 

Seems finely balanced from the models perspective tonight........

 

NAVGEM looks cold with a slider

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014021118/navgemnh-0-144.png?11-23

 

S

 

 

leaving aside my preference for what the 500 charts have shown for that period, GFS which is what I think you are referring to with the Iceland/Svalbard link is hardly running the same story consistently is it? I know you dismiss the 18z usually but the ridge you talk of is only on one run?

Edited February 11, 2014 by johnholmes

[SMU 80,650]

leaving aside my preference for what the 500 charts have shown for that period, GFS which is what I think you are referring to with the Iceland/Svalbard link is hardly running the same story consistently is it? I know you dismiss the 18z usually but the ridge you talk of is only on one run?

 

You will note I mentioned it earlier & before the 18z-

 

I cited this as a possibility as the models often fail & predict the incorrect alignment of the Svalbard high & subsequent CAA westwards from that lobe of PV over Russia-

 

ALL models often align it towards the pole, but more often than not its aligns towards Northern Europe-  THat change in angle & trajectory that's been picked up in the last 24 hours will ensure the cold gets into Northern Europe again, its whether the UK/Iceland ridge can hold up long enough to phase with it!!

 

S

[BLAST FROM THE PAST 12,948]

Yep, 18z looks plausible and mid to back end of next week brings more strong to gale force winds but on a sliding basis.  I think 18z has a 'reality' feel to it and is not outlandish.  Not a real pattern change but an increasingly overall cold feel and tons of snow for our higher elevations...anyone see Devina walking through waist deep snow in lake district? 

I must admit last year took the 'belief' I had that real wintry weather ends in Feb, which is generally true, but it clearly can be very wintry with deep and lying snow and the extreme weather events we are now experiencing who knows.  Looks like some will be up early in the morning.

 

BFTP

Edited February 11, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Jon Snow 79,636]

To slide or not to slide..that is the question tonight. We have had this shown on the models not long ago but it came to nothing then, but can we finally have good luck for the first time this winter, coldies have had a rotton winter and deserve a shot of very wintry weather before the meteorological spring begins on march 1st.

[weather eater 1,715]

The GFS fanboys should look over the last 24 hours- as that's how long its taken the model to catch the UKMO & JMA / ECM up tonight--

 

now at 144-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021118/gfsnh-0-144.png?18

 

NB Ive included the ECM above- because its had the ridge, however its been fast to break it down.

 

All models close at 120, thereafter differing solutions in terms of how far & how fast east the atlantic progresses. The Grojean (GEM) model being the slowest....

 

Pretty much last chance saloon for Winter....

GFS fanboys ???? a bit like telling a work colleague you like a couple of songs by a band only to find the next day he’s been telling everyone you are some kind of massive groupie. But I digress, the fact of the matter is that the GFS has only caught up with the ECM/UKMO if the output remains the same and a ridge develops. At the moment all we have are projections at 144hrs that will evolve and change and trust me Steve I would love you to be right and would gladly eat the humble pie if we finally get something to shout about this winter...

[geordiekev 1,131]

<p>I have to say the models have been very poor this winter from a coldie perspective but what they have given is good evidence of why we don't always get cold and that sometimes the vortex goes elsewhere or the jet takes a Different pattern.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>In the 5 years I've been a member have learnt so much from the experienced members and dispelled the myth that the media would have us believe in the 90s.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>Sorry mods but I do have to say these last few days I do feel like certain members are trying to take over the role of the mods and is quite unpleasant reading so much sniping and put downs, telling people what and where they should post.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>Not the friendly place it was designed for so please members remember regardless of your preference remember the spirit which made this place such a popular and friendly place to visit during the dark winter nights.</p>

Edited February 12, 2014 by geordiekev

[winterof79 6,862]

Not bad.... i suppose

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021200/ECH1-216.GIF?12-12 

[SMU 80,650]

Great ukmo & Gem this morning,

Superseeded by an even more Epic ECM

Please just for once this winter let an ECM run verify-

Note the link up- uk/iceland ridge to the svalbard high

High risk manoevre though.....

S

[s4lancia 9,937]

Not the first time in the past couple of days ECM has more than hinted at this...

 

As nice looking as it is, we just need it to turn into a trend!

Edited February 12, 2014 by s4lancia