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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


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As much I love the ecm at the unreliable of T+240, and please believe me I want an end to these dire conditions the Gfs does not show this at this time frame. Its been on top form recently, ecm not, but Im really hoping the ecm is correct and the last dregs of Winter will be shown, Im quite optimistic that the ecm may be right, and we all may see some of the white stuff, albeit rather late!!!Posted Image So caution, is needed, but at least a little glimmer of light from the ecmPosted Image And lets face it, the harrowing weather we are enduring now, has to come to an end at some point......

post-6830-0-24452100-1392060651_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-68510100-1392060687_thumb.pn

Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Sooner or later ECM has got to get one of these calls right, surely?

Surely we cannot come out with the same statement every time ECM "Forecasts" a colder scenario.It is in tandem with UKMO at 144z.Little steps tonight.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021012/ECU0-144.GIF?10-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021012/UW144-7.GIF?10-18

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Well in the here and now or at least nowish, the song remains the same wind, rain and the continuation of the sinking of the south. As for the ECM, well wonderful if it happens but I have no faith in ECM mid range blocking projections, I said it in December and I’ve seen nothing to change my mind. I have to say whatever the verification stats show, the GFS has trumped the other models for our side of the pond this winter.  Difficult to say where we will be in a week’s time, certainly some variation in the models but my punt would be for still a relatively flat pattern but much less intense in terms of wind and rain than the last couple of weeks, i would not expect the GFS 12z to be a million miles out from the general pattern at 200hrs..

Edited by weather eater
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This is chart the whole country should pin it's hopes on tonight.

Posted Image

Regardless of how cold it is, it sees the deep blues move away - which means calmer and less wet. 

It's the least unsettled chart we've seen at a decent time frame for over two weeks.

GFS may have moved away from this idea tonight but it has hinted at this too. Here's hoping. It won't be a day overdue

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Quite an obvious FI point with the ECM tonight. T144 has a low East and West. Some sort of cough from the Azores and both retreat.

Posted Image

Cough....

Posted Image

 

Edit: wrong chart.

Edited by StuieW
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UKMO, ECM, GFS and very much JMA bring in some vicious and serious storm conditions over next 5-6 days.  ECM and UKMO then go for a slider, and if you look at JMA at t192 ..that for me shows that the Atlantic would become stalled come t216/240.  Are we to see a late winter?  Already there is a steady appearance of colder temps for the next week for many.....

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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My only concern is that there doesn't seem to be any background signal whether teleconnection or alternative to support IMO a big change in what we have. Be nice

 

1. to calm downand dry out

2. to get a blast of wintry cold

 

Having said that I think there'll be bumper late season skiing this year in the Alps, they seem to have had tons of snow with what looks like more to come for sure.

 

BFTP

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IF we were to get to t240 then a potent (perhaps very potent) easterly would be virtually a

dead cert. Below is the t240 chart with arrows showing the way I would expect the pattern

to evolve from there.

Posted Imageecm t240 today.png

I think there is some promise in this. I saw a chart today where the majority of the PV was over Siberia (sure I did). If so then yes, a possibility. I will look for the chart.

 

Edit:

Something along the lines of this:

Posted Image

Edited by StuieW
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Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the midday outputs supplied by the NWP for today Monday February 10th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models show a disturbing period of weather coming up over the remainder of this week and the weekend. Today's benign conditions will be replaced overnight by an active squally trough moving East over the UK later tonight and tomorrow followed by a fresh to strong Westerly flow. Heavy rain and hills now over the North will be replaced tomorrow by wintry showers and sunny intervals with the North and West seeing the most showers with some drier periods developing across the South and East. through Wednesday another major storm system propels it's way across England deepening explosively as it goes with severe gales and very heavy rain will sweep through all areas followed by squally wintry showers with hail and thunder on Thursday. A repeat performance of the storm will likely occur later on Friday with a colder and showery period over the weekend with strong West then NW winds with showers, wintry and heavy with snow on hills.
 
GFS then shows next week with very little change I'm afraid as further Low pressure areas move across the UK with further bands of rain followed by showers wintry on hills in the North. It will also be windy at times but maybe without the risk of damaging winds possible this week. The very end of the run still shows a drier phase as something of a ridge crosses East but with Low pressure out to the west and NW it all looks very tentative.
 
UKMO tonight shows the UK lying in a void between two low pressure systems. The one to the East taking it's showery weather away with it while the second approaches the West of the UK later in the day with further rain, strong winds and hill snow in rather chilly weather.
 
GEM looks similar to UKMO at Day 6 moving forward to maintain unsettled and sometimes windy weather with rain at times as Low pressure areas are never far away from the UK to the North.
 
NAVGEM closes it's run tonight with a Westerly flow backing SW slowly as we go through the start of next week. With pressure relatively low and winds brisk in strength troughs will continue to deliver rain at times in temperatures slowly recovering from the chilly weekend.
 
ECM tonight is the joker of the pack and would if verified bring immediate relief from the wet and wild weather of late. It shows High pressure developing across the UK by midweek next week and towards Scandinavia with fine, very cold and very frosty weather developing with any rain restricted to the far SW then NW and sharp frost and fog night and morning very likely.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts don't support the operational tonight with the same consensus more likely than has been shown for some time meaning the likelihood is that Low pressure will continue to dominate the weather over the UK with a most likely Low pressure area to the NW with SW or West winds and rain at times still for all areas.
 
 
 
The GFS Ensembles show fairly average uppers across the UK through tonight's output rising somewhat towards the end of the run. There is still quite a lot of rain shown at times with this week in particular showing some uncomfortably high rainfall amounts.
 
The GFS Jet Stream forecast shows the flow carrying on unabated in it's current form so changes in the weather pattern remain unlikely. What's more concerning tonight is the trend to ridge the flow North is less apparent tonight as well as the weakening of the flow with a strong flow now shown, still troughing to the South of the UK in two weeks time.
 
In Summary tonight with the exception of the ECM operational it looks more of the same tonight with much of the output showing less in the way of improvements than in recent runs. However, the ECM operational has thrown a lifeline tonight and I hope it manifests and spreads between the other outputs soon to buy some much needed time to enable flooding relief work to take place without it battling against further rainfall. In the mean time it's batten down the hatches for the next 5-6 days as a couple of very disruptive periods of weather look like affecting the areas who least need it as very heavy rainfall and damaging gales look possible.
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what a lovely chart remember keep watching chilly end of feb and spring 

Posted Image

 

We can all hope!

 

Now if colder weather would develop, yes it will FINALLY ease the flood worries, especially the S of the UK.

 

Could see the Somerset Levels turning into Europes largest Ice Rink if we see a long cold break!?!

 

SM

Edited by SnowMania
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Meanwhile interesting trends tonight. A lessening of the current severe pattern is looking increasingly likely with all options open from day 8 or 9. A trend towards a late winter cold spell has been gathering amongst the ensembles in the last 24 hours.

As Steve said earlier 10 days only takes us out to the 20th so still some time yet.

Edited by Jason M
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The short term ECM ensembles show the OP was on the colder side of the pack but not without support. 

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

 

Lets hope it on to something, not just for the cold but for high pressure so begin to have more of a influence to end the deluge.

 

 

In the short term plenty of chances for snow especially for those with some altitude.

 

This chart from the UKMO is not to shabby either

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021012/UW120-21.GIF?10-18

 

 

A small step forward tonight for us coldies, lets hope its not two steps back in the morning.

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We can all hope!

 

Now if colder weather would develop, yes it will FINALLY ease the flood worries, especially the S of the UK.

 

Could see the Somerset Levels turning into Europes largest Ice Rink if we see a long cold break!?!

 

SM

I don`t get it. Contradiction? 

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Why don't we have a bit of fun.

 

Ive framed the 192 charts for use in 8 days.

 

 

ECM 12z

post-1235-0-97015800-1392066005_thumb.jp

 

JMA  12z

post-1235-0-63778500-1392065871_thumb.gi

 

GFS  12z

post-1235-0-44759300-1392065851_thumb.pn

 

As you can see ECM & JMA go for a ridge building North in the atlantic. & Cold building to the East...

 

12z GFS says winters over for Northern Europe, ECM + JMA says game on.

 

S

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Looking at the placement of the low at T120hrs and where it tracks is likely to correlate with how the pattern could evolve afterwards.

 

The  more southerly track is likely to come in tandem with more ridging south out of Iceland, this then will effect the track of the upstream low. Looking at the thoughts of NCEP they expect a more zonal flow to take over in the USA by next Monday with the deep cold finally relenting from the eastern and ne USA, we do need to see the pattern amplified to get enough energy heading se, if you do get the block in place then a flatter pattern over in the USA would be okay as long as the flow splits to the west of the UK.

 

Looking at the ECM De Bilt ensembles they for the time being don't bring in any deep cold to Holland, there is a cluster of colder solutions but not indicative of deeper cold air, generally they would cluster sub zero, we're not seeing that as yet.

 

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

 

Of course with these types of evolutions shown by the operational run they might be a bit slow to pick up the baton, we have been here before with the ECM this winter so I certainly wouldn't be getting too excited over tonights operational output but at least we have something  a bit more interesting to discuss this evening!

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steave although the models showing cold at 144h for scotland haven't parts of scotland had plenty of snow and cold? Also haven't we been here with ecmf and ukmo before this winter? 

After the storminess of this week the UKMO day 6 points to proper polar air getting into Scotland- http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1021&ech=6&archive=0 At first glance not your typical classic chart but with -10c on the doorstep if your looking for wintry weather that's certainly a start-http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021012/UW144-7.GIF?10-18Also with that atlantic low sliding ESE that could certainly engage the colder air & produce some more significant snow... Interesting to see if the ECM follows suit.A very difficult week ahead for all manor of reasons. S

 
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Looking through the GEFS at T216 I only spotted one member close to the ECM chart. Certainly no support from GFS.

 

The ECM mean at T192: post-14819-0-81201700-1392065673_thumb.g op at same time: post-14819-0-27265600-1392065690_thumb.g

 

Mean at T240: post-14819-0-30513800-1392065592_thumb.g

 

That looks a complete outlier to me. The GEFS were showing this type of scenario about three days ago for the middle of next week and they have since distanced themselves from that stalling ridge followed by migration of the UK high to the NE. The London ENS show how far away they are from that type of setup:

 

Pressure London: post-14819-0-62136300-1392065953_thumb.g temp: post-14819-0-95686600-1392065965_thumb.g

 

The GEFS FI remain on a trend towards short wave ridging and lows alternating between dry and wet with the pattern easing northwards with time. Nothing wintry for London on the GEFS right out to D16.

 

So likely another ECM op that is very unlikely. The De Bilt enspost-14819-0-01717600-1392066278_thumb.p

 

The coldest run and the Control in the extended range goes mild.

 

 

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GFS

 

 

GFS trumped ECM.... lolol-

 

ECM has tarnished its reputation this winter with creating  blocking scenarios at the outer reaches of FI- Ie Day 9 & 10- sometimes even at day 7/8.

 

However when you remember the run up to the last missed cold spell the GFS was MILES & MILES away from the correct solution where as the Euros trumped the GFS.

 

1nd of Jan 168

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?jour=1&mois=1&annee=2014&heure=12&archive=1&mode=0&ech=6&carte=1

GFS has the store into the Northern Atlantic

 

ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014010100/ECH1-168.GIF?00

 

Massive inland runner - storm over Canada...

 

Actual outcome

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014010800-0-6.png

 

ECM SPOT ON for days. GFS miles away.

infact if you open the actual outcome & the ECM 168 you would think its the same chart.

 

 

Theres always selective memory when it comes to the GFS - also perhaps because it runs 4 a day is does actually get the right outcome.

However the GFS did perform better than the fail before Christmas-

 

Statistically for the NH the ECM is tops-

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

 

GFS forth - so really your faith in the GFS is misplaced....

 

F./F/S

 

I don't know why I bother on here.

 

 

the problem this winter is that ALL the fantastic day 10 charts or even day 6 charts for failed to deliver FOR THE UK, for others though they did deliver as per ECM, like the other day with 40cm of snow over in Denmark etc.

 

 

to be fair though steve, we don't live in denmark.

 

which model has been right for us?

 

the GFS may not have been accurate on a NH scale but it is frequently accused of 'overdoing' LP systems and showing the (often mis-interpreted) 'zonal' scenario. unfortunately for us, the weather has gone with the GFS....

 

edit-  actually there must have been some models which we don't have access to which have been right, as the MetO forecasts have been pretty much spot on all winter...

Edited by bobbydog
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