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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


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Nice little squall line currently passing through Hatfield travelling north east at the moment.......well i would say it's nice and usually, in the absence of snow it would be something of interest at least, but now I wonder how much it will hurt the flooded homes of north east Herts still clearing up from last friday.And for all the talk of whether or not later in the week might bring snow, one thing seems to be for sure....it's going to bring precipitation in one form or the other which won't help either!

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Nice little squall line currently passing through Hatfield travelling north east at the moment.......well i would say it's nice and usually, in the absence of snow it would be something of interest at least, but now I wonder how much it will hurt the flooded homes of north east Herts still clearing up from last friday.And for all the talk of whether or not later in the week might bring snow, one thing seems to be for sure....it's going to bring precipitation in one form or the other which won't help either!

 

Think a few people are going to have suprise midlands north tomorrow if the Met Office warnings come off for snow

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Meanwhile the most promising chart in weeks comes along for Scotland which has not been given a single mention

Posted Image

Posted Image

Snow for Scotland and NW England from a brief blast from the Arctic. Shows that with the weakening jet you could get enough separation of the energy between Greenland and Scandinavia to open up a northerly flow if transient. 

Also as Steve below says the upstream low should move along the southern flank of that Scandi trough and would definitely put a dividing line across the UK with snow to the north.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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After the storminess of this week the UKMO day 6 points to proper polar air getting into Scotland-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1021&ech=6&archive=0

 

At first glance not your typical classic chart but with -10c on the doorstep if your looking for wintry weather that's certainly a start-

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014021012/UW144-7.GIF?10-18

Also with that atlantic low sliding ESE that could certainly engage the colder air & produce some more significant snow...

 

Interesting to see if the ECM follows suit.

A very difficult week ahead for all manor of reasons.

 

S

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At last something to talk about that isn't just wind and rain. Interesting ECM and the more amplified upstream pattern helps to develop something colder for the UK, could be some significant snow between T120 and T144hrs as that low heads ne, western flank over high ground most favoured.

 

If the upstream pattern can verify in terms of amplification then a chance that troughing to the west could disrupt some energy se'wards and support high pressure near the UK.

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High pressure looks to be a theme of the mid term lately. Atlantic dominance may just be about to fade for the first time this winter. Once it does, and under a cool high, frost and fog would become prevalent, making things feel much more seasonal. And then there is the option of something more interesting snow-wise.

 

Posted Image

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The last few runs the GFS has been playing about with amplifing the pattern in the t150 to

t196 time frame. Now the UKMO and the ECM show this. Hopefully this is a work in progress

and we will see further amplification with a link to the the stronger heights much further north.

 

ECM t240 is almost pornagraphic. beautiful, beautiful chart. I want to see t264 etc lol.

Good old strat warming I knew it would not let us down.

Edited by cooling climate
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Dry, frosty, colder and possibly foggy at t192 and t216 from ECM tonight

 

 

 

 

we can but dream ........................................

 

the ens have had a mean amplified upper ridge moving west to east but the op, typically, over eggs the pudding. its another variation on the theme of yesterday mornings 00z op run. so what do we take from it ? well at day 6 it has good support from ukmo and it isnt too far from the gfs 00z run.  to me,  that says an undercutting system has a 50/50 chance days 6 to 7 of verifying. what follows this undercut, (and it may not actually deliver precip to the uk) is open to conjecture but the ecm op looks too amplified, given current output. remembering that what precedes the potential undercut will bring wintry conditions to the northern half of the uk. at least something interesting for the coldies!

 

note that the mean jet on the ecm ens post day 6 is as weak as ive seen it modelled thus far through the winter. that does mean its difficult to dismiss any evolution as not credible, though as i said, that op is probably a step too far for the moment. could be a different tale come the morning and even if we end up with a weak upper ridge east of iceland and the jet continuing to bring systems across the atlantic, that wouldnt be such a bad return with the possibility of further undercutting.

Edited by bluearmy
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Really are we here again? Maybe this time it will come of and the cold lovers (me too as this wind and rain is doing my nut now) can get some frost..

 

But been here what 3/4 times now? 

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