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Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


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Well the last 7 weeks model watching for me certainly as kept me glued to the computer with amazing interest especially as im a total cold snow fan .tonights data and Modells show total news worthy weather all week but at the end  moderate signs of drier condition with high pressure arriving close by .looking back in history many severe and long lasting weather types in our winters usually last 6/7 weeks so perhaps this one is finally coming to an end .but as usuall at the seven day range and beyond we can never be certain .Wish i could have a pound for every winter similar to this one in our past History of millions of years ,i would fly off tomorrow but knowing my luck would miss a raging northerly and an easterly beast .Fantastic forum this and certainly very informative for learners and at times fun a bit of banter and sniping ,but great place to be .Posted Image in the love of Meteorology .

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i meant re snow in the southern half of the uk. clearly, it likely gives you a decent covering at your elevation and latitude.

 

Fax chart a bit late coming out.What's the chances of it looking like the ecm

at 96 hrs with its "clean" look.Posted Image 

 

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Some of the GEFS are rather tasty this morning. Lots of scatter but some big easterlies in there.

One last roll of the dice to try and salvage something. Whatever happens though the current pattern does seem to on its way out after this week IMO. Won't be a quick process though.

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The GFS has been trying to clarify what happens after the main thrust of energy after about D7. It has been throwing up Atlantic ridges consistently but varies as to their strength and to where they go. It now appears the lull will bring repeated ridging that is mostly transient. It provides longer drier interludes, the south, the main beneficiary, before another low spins over the UK.

 

With that setup I suspect the north and high ground will get a wintry mix, but mostly rain between the drier interludes for the south, and maybe frosts more likely.

 

So at the end of FI we have the mean still showing an Icelandic low and a Canadian Vortex but with the pattern slightly further north:

 

post-14819-0-48644600-1392016674_thumb.p

 

Only two cold charts at D16 so they remain background noise: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=384

 

As for snow for the south this coming week, GFS give it a smaller chance than recent runs:  post-14819-0-79073000-1392016989_thumb.g

 

GEM at D9 highlight the subtle pattern change:  post-14819-0-66354000-1392017124_thumb.p As does ECMpost-14819-0-95071100-1392017250_thumb.g

 

Next 8 days rainfall totals: post-14819-0-06406800-1392017371_thumb.g

 

So something relatively calmer for week 2 after we get over this wet and windy week. 

 

 

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Good morning. Here is today's look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday February 10th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
 
All models agree on the basic sequence of events over the coming working week with today likely to be the best of the weather. A weak westerly or NW flow lies across the UK with a weak trough in the SE giving some light rain and showery troughs near the West giving some wintry showers but with a lot of dry and bright weather too. Tonight and tomorrow shows an active trough sweeping East with gales and rain clearing to wintry showers for all tomorrow in a blustery west wind. Showers on Wednesday then give way to a spell of potentially stormy weather late Wednesday and into Thursday with very heavy rain, snow on Northern hills and once more followed by wintry showers from the West. Late in the week a repeat performance looks likely as we reach the weekend.
 
GFS then shows next weekend as a cold and showery one with wintry showers for many with snow on hills in the North accumulating in places. Early next week a new Low brings more prolonged rain and snow across the South followed by a more coherent spell of dry weather with frosty nights and bright days for a day or two. Then to end the run Atlantic wind and rains return in a blustery WSW flow with Low pressure areas to the North moving East.
 
The GFS Ensembles show little encouragement for those looking for dry or indeed deeply colder weather as all indications point to more unsettled weather with rain at times and temperatures eventually back to very average values in mostly Westerly winds.
 
UKMO today has a cold NW flow across the British Isles with sunshine and wintry showers across the UK next Sunday, especially in the North and West before a brief ridge approaches from the West later with a short drier interlude and perhaps a frost next Sunday night.
 
GEM today is broadly similar to UKMO for next Sunday with a showery NW flow giving way to a ridge of High pressure from the West before more Atlantic troughs maintain an unsettled feel to the weather next week with further rain and showers at times in possible strong winds too.
 
NAVGEM ends it's run this morning with Low pressure out to the NW  and a milder SW flow bringing rain at times in blustery winds across the UK again next week after a rather cold and showery weekend.
 
ECM still shows slow improvements from the South next week but we may well have to be patient as Low pressure remains resilient to a pressure rise from the South with rain at times still likely as far out as the middle of next week.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts today show very similar conditions expected in 9 and 10 days time that was shown in previous days output. Low pressure is biased towards being to the North of the UK with a WSW flow over the UK with bands of rain and showers expected in such conditions. the bias of worst rains should shift more towards the NW rather than SW as the Jet by then has shifted somewhat further North.
 
 
The GFS Jet Stream Summary shows the flow remaining in situ for the next week or so pumping across the Atlantic and France. The push Northward is still shown next week but it is weaker than was shown yesterday with the main thinking being for it to cross the UK next week in a WW to ENE direction.
 
In Summary this morning there remains a lot of unsettled weather to get through before there is any chance of improvements. Through this week several bouts of wind and rain will cross the UK, heavy and disruptive at times and giving some snowfall in places too, chiefly in the North. there is still a muted approach to somewhat better conditions next week, at least at times as pressure attempts to rise from the South. However, if anything such improvements shown are less pronounced this morning as it appears the Atlantic is likely to remain quite strong, continuing to throw spells of rain East across the UK on occasion.
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Continued signal this morning from GFS and ECM ops for the flow over the Atlantic to become more convoluted, which should help steer Atlantic depressions, that develop along the NW Atlantic steep temp gradient, away from the UK. The low heights/troughing to the north splits into separate areas to the NW and NE allowing the chance of ridging, albeit weak, to develop close to or just west of the UK. This would result in less wind and rain and perhaps a colder flow from the north for a time. Can see this on the 00z H500 comparison:

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Much closer in time, looks quite snowy, even to lower levels, for N Ireland, Scotland, N England and perhaps parts of Wales tomorrow on the back edge of the frontal system moving through - then wintry showers pack in on the strong and cold westerly flow across northern and western areas, bringing further snow into Tuesday night- particularly but maybe not exclusively to higher ground. Wednesday deep low bringing further snow to higher parts of Nern Britain, but wind and further rain to the flooded southern parts the main concern, could see 60-70mph gusts even inland. Saturday's low looks concerning from GFS and UKMO, though ECM takes a much shallower feature across the south - so jury's out on this feature, for now.

Edited by Nick F
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I see nothing in the upper air pattern being predicted that would suggest major cold, a return to what one might call a more usual westerly Atlantic pattern with much less in the way of severe winds and persistent rain. in the 6-15 day outlook. Chances for sure of a burst of polar air behind a low but no sign so far of any major blocking being set up.

All 3 of the main anomaly charts seem to be showing about the same after the ECMWF hiccup yesterday.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

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I don't think anyone is suggesting major cold, but it does look relatively colder this week compared to the winter up to this point with a higher risk of wet snow, especially but not exclusively on hills along with occasionally icy and frosty nights and wintry showers but the main emphasis is again on the bouts of torrential rain which will exacerbate the flooding situation and also the damaging strength of the winds at times and coastal flooding, no respite this week.Posted Image

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I see nothing in the upper air pattern being predicted that would suggest major cold, a return to what one might call a more usual westerly Atlantic pattern with much less in the way of severe winds and persistent rain. in the 6-15 day outlook. Chances for sure of a burst of polar air behind a low but no sign so far of any major blocking being set up.

All 3 of the main anomaly charts seem to be showing about the same after the ECMWF hiccup yesterday.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

 

HI John, whilst they don't scream cold the 1 HLB in place is at least in a half decent position to push very cold air into Europe-

 

Just a little more amplification in the atlantic could push that further west-  Hasn't happened yet this year- but at least we have another chance...

 

A decent GFS coming- pity its the 06z GFS but looks VERY good at 150.

 

S

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Gfs 06z looking very similar to the ecm 00z around 120 to 144 hours!!the low pressure from the south staying further south and sliding along the channel!!snowfall on the north of that low pressure I assume!!also the band of wintryness tomorrow is slightly slower getting across england which is good hopefully more time for the cold 850s to undercut!!yesterdays 12z had the band across the east of england at 13.00 tomorrow but now it has it across the midlands!!

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Friday/Saturday's low looks much less threatening wind wise on the 06z GFS operational, more like 00z ECM, though it would still bring unwelcome rain to southern parts, perhaps with back edge snow for high ground as it clears the SE.

 

A lot of uncertainty with the surface detail later this week, due to how the shallow low coming out of NE N America phases with the jet streaks and the upper shortwave trough coming in behind it over the Atlantic. 06z GFS phases the low earlier but moves the low away from the developmental left exit of the jet as it enters the SW approaches, thus it fills quicker.

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I see nothing in the upper air pattern being predicted that would suggest major cold, a return to what one might call a more usual westerly Atlantic pattern with much less in the way of severe winds and persistent rain. in the 6-15 day outlook. Chances for sure of a burst of polar air behind a low but no sign so far of any major blocking being set up.

All 3 of the main anomaly charts seem to be showing about the same after the ECMWF hiccup yesterday.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

 

Hi John

 

That is certainly what those anomaly charts show but  there are subtle differences showing up re placement of trough and HLB with the trough gradually being shifted West and South which no doubt led to your "bursts of polar air" assessment and within the 10 day time-frame there is little chance of finding enough amplification to our West and respective taming of the Atlantic for any seriously cold air settling over the UK. Also the trough to the West of the UK is less pronounced which given we are likely to see a strong trough to the West of the UK over the next 7 days or so we can postulate that we are seeing a decent signal for an end to the onslaught and perhaps for high pressure to begin building strongly from the SW toward the end of the period which is obviously more speculative.

There is just no way to know how that will develop at this stage but we could well see a trough set up to the NE of the UK with the Atlantic cut off rather than a flattening of the pattern and a return to standard Westerly fare from day 10. We could see a Northerly outbreak as the Azores high attempts to build in but is squeezed West by as the trough moves East toward Scandinavia at the same time or it may be that the pattern sets up too far East but that would leave the UK under a ridge of high pressure which although not cold would be very welcome I'm sure - not sure how long that respite would last though. 

 

All the usual caveats apply at that range, one can only get a general sense of pressure patterns, but in my mind I would be surprised if we are in an Atlantic dominated regime as we head toward the end of the 10 day period and we may start to see prospects of colder weather being modelled in the output over the next few days for the last third of Feb.

The GFS and NOAA  anomaly charts already have to a small degree hinted at this though ECM looks more keen to retain a Westerly dominated theme of the three day 10 onwards.

 

We may have one more serious storm to get through around the 12th but thereafter it looks like we will be under more typical Atlantic fare at least even though there is no sign of it drying up and any pattern change will have to wait as you say - it's just that I would be a little more optimistic of something showing up within 15 days if not 10.

Edited by Mucka
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I know this is only loosely connected with the current and developing weather pattern and the MODS are free to move this if deemed not appropriate. However I do think this video is worthy of sharing with the folk in here as it just gives another perspective on things, when bearing in mind the run of recent atrocious years these guys n gals have all faced.

 

 

 

As for this week, the nightmare continues for those affected by the current pattern and as others have stated, perhaps by the start of next week there will be some return to normality forthcoming.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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